Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Portsmouth

It's crunch time for Argyle. Adam Price looks ahead to the game that will make or break the decision to play a rotated side at Leeds.

19^th September 2024. Plymouth Argyle make their shortest trip of the season for a Championship game against Bristol City. As soon as the lineup is announced, it looks as though Steven Schumacher is willing to throw the game.

I’m sure that wasn’t really the case, but it was blatantly obvious that the then Argyle manager was willing to prioritise a home game against Norwich City the following Saturday. The gambit worked.

Argyle were predictably thumped 4-1 in Bristol, but they were stunning against the Canaries. Schumacher’s side put six goals past Norwich in what probably remains the Greens’ best performance since returning to the Championship. Any concerns arriving from the game at Ashton Gate were forgotten almost as quickly as they arrived.

I can’t help but notice the similarities between that week and Argyle’s current situation. Now under the stewardship of Wayne Rooney, Argyle announced a lineup against Leeds United that may as well have been an act of surrender before kick off. The Pilgrims were beaten, but that team selection would have been with more than an eye on the visit of Portsmouth in midweek. Beat their south coast rivals, and events in Yorkshire on Saturday can be swiftly buried.

Having struggled since their own return to the Championship, Portsmouth arrive at Home Park bottom of the league. With Argyle having only lost once at home this season, they may start as the favourites for the first league game in a while. So, what can we expect from the visitors?

Style of play

In recent weeks, we’ve seen Argyle face a classic long ball team in Millwall, and a team who intend to keep possession in Leeds United. Portsmouth are much closer to the former end of the scale.

For the stats we have available (this time including the games up to but not including the recent weekend), Portsmouth have gone long with 18% of their passes. Only Luton Town and Millwall send a higher proportion of their passes long. Pompey’s average possession of 44% is also the third-lowest in the league. They’re often without the ball, and when they have it they attempt a number of high-risk, high-reward passes, often losing possession quickly.

The tactic has had mixed results at best. Due to their direct style, aerial duels are paramount. Indeed, Portsmouth have been involved in, and won, more aerial duels than any other team in the league. However, their success rate in such duels is 49%, only good enough to rank 16^th across the division.

I wonder if this has been a significant factor in Portsmouth’s slow start. Millwall have demonstrated that direct football can still be effective in the modern game, but you need to have several physical focal points to make it work. That’s something Portsmouth don’t appear to possess.

In defence of Pompey manager John Mousinho, this style may have been born out of circumstance rather than choice. On paper, his side had a tougher start than anyone, and Mousinho may have felt he had to play negative football to compete. Portsmouth were still fairly direct in League One last season, but played around 15% of their passes long, compared to the 18% they sit on this season (the difference isn’t as insignificant as it may appear). They may see a depleted Argyle as ideal opponents, giving them the opportunity to mix up their style a little more.

Whether or not the passing style is altered, I expect Portsmouth to stick to their preferred 4-2-3-1. They’ll still play long balls, even if the frequency changes slightly, and as such the focal point up front will play a big role. Both Mark O’Mahony and Elias Sorensen have started as the striker in recent times, with O’Mahony particularly impressive, but they both played due to the enforced absence of Australian Kusini Yengi. I suspect he’ll be in from the start at Home Park. Colby Bishop remains a long-term absentee.

Like Argyle, Portsmouth have been hampered with injuries of their own. Behind Yengi, Paddy Lane looks like he’ll be a big miss. That puts extra onus on Callum Lang, and I feel Lang’s positioning will be indicative of Portsmouth’s approach. He’s more natural as an attacking midfielder, and if he plays there he could have Josh Murphy to his left and a geriatric Matt Ritchie to his right. However, Pompey could identify an Argyle weakness in the wide areas, switch Lang to the wing, and bring in Christian Saydee to sit behind the striker.

In midfield, captain Marlon Pack and West Ham United loanee Freddie Potts had been forming a partnership, but Pack was unceremoniously dropped a fortnight ago after a poor run of form. Andre Dozzell has taken his place. I rate Dozzell as a talented player, but he’s very hit-and-miss. If he starts again, let’s hope this is one of his off days.

Compared to the rest of the side, Portsmouth’s defence has been relatively settled. Left back Connor Ogilvie and centre backs Tom McIntyre and Regan Poole have each started Pompey’s last six league games. The only change has been at right back; a knock to Jordan Williams has seen Terry Devlin take his place. And after an injury absence of his own, I suspect Nicolas Schmid will be back in the Portsmouth goal.

There has been a lot of doom and gloom around Argyle recently. Rightly so, in many cases. But Portsmouth are dealing with plenty of issues themselves. They too have injury absentees, and currently seem to be deploying a style that doesn’t suit their squad. That they sit bottom of the pile is no real surprise.

Strengths

In our Leeds preview, you may recall us uncovering their surprisingly poor shooting stats. As Sod’s Law would have it, that’s something that didn’t carry through to the weekend, with Dan James’ pot-shot from range particularly annoying as it sailed into the top corner. Leeds scored three goals from 1.86 xG, and their post-shot xG of 1.93 was much more in line with what a team of their talent would expect.

With that in mind, should we be even more worried about Portsmouth? They may not have created too many chances, but when they have Portsmouth have been shooting better than most sides in the division. They’ve had a total xG of 12.73 this season, which isn’t terrific, but their post-shot xG of 13.77 marks a decent upgrade. That overperformance of 1.04 is around the same as Argyle’s this year, and the Pilgrims have been strong shooters across multiple seasons.

How can Argyle combat this? Well, they’ll have to commit themselves to blocking those shooting opportunities as they arise. Lewis Gibson is by far Argyle’s best defender in that regard, but it’s imperative that those replacing him deliver. I’ve rated Victor Palsson more than most (I appreciate that’s an incredibly low bar to clear), but he must do more to put his body on the line and block shots to win over the Argyle faithful. I want no repeat of Preston North End’s second goal last Saturday.

Portsmouth’s shooting, and particularly their total xG figure, has been inflated by the fact they win a significant number of penalties. They’ve had three in the league thus far this season, a joint-high alongside Middlesbrough and Hull City. One of those came against Leeds at Elland Road, as Portsmouth were outplayed but still fought their way to a 3-3 draw. I guess it’s not impossible.

That’s a particularly worrying stat when considering Argyle’s defence. We can all have our opinions as to whether the defenders Rooney has available are of sufficient quality for this league. But we’ll all certainly agree that, whoever starts, the defence will be makeshift. With the defenders not having the opportunity to breed familiarity, some tackling may be mistimed and/or misguided. Doing that against a team as willing to fall to the floor as Portsmouth? Well, I dread to think of the likely outcome.

Portsmouth also have a strength worth noting off the ball. They’ve had their troubles at the back this season (trust me, we’ll touch on those shortly), but they’ve done well to intercept their opponents’ passes and break up their attacking moves. Prior to the weekend, Portsmouth had completed a total of 118 interceptions, the fifth-highest total in the league. As I often say when visiting teams are good at intercepting passes, it could lead to a particularly frustrating day for Argyle in attack.

That’s particularly the case this time around, and once again it’s a lack of familiarity that could prove to be Argyle’s undoing. With attacking players who won’t have played together often, patterns of play will be harder to implement, and instinctive passes will be trickier without an understanding of the intended target’s positioning. Pair that with opponents who intercept well, and there’s every chance Argyle could find Portsmouth annoyingly difficult to break down.

Given the curious, much-changed Argyle lineup in Leeds, I desperately hope more time was spent on the training ground preparing the forwards for this game. If it was, the attack could still flow perfectly and events of the weekend will quickly be forgotten. If it wasn’t? Hmm…

Weaknesses

Portsmouth have issues at both ends of the field. As I have to keep reminding myself, there’s a reason Mousinho’s side sit bottom of the league, and they’ll start as underdogs on Tuesday despite Argyle’s own deficiencies.

Chance creation has been a serious problem since their return to the Championship. They’ve created nine big chances across their 13 league games this season, which is the second-lowest number in the Championship. In fact, only Argyle themselves (seven) have created fewer, but they tend to be far better at it in front of their own supporters.

Portsmouth’s xG figures paint an even bleaker picture. As I mentioned previously, their total xG for the season sits at 12.73. That’s already one of the lowest totals in the league, with only three teams posting a lower figure. And when we contextualise that number, Portsmouth’s attack looks even more blunt than before.

Remember, nobody in the league has had more penalties than Portsmouth. They make up a significant proportion of their xG, as do set pieces, which account for around 28% of Pompey’s total. From open play, Portsmouth have a total xG figure of 6.91, which is the lowest total in the Championship. It’s lower than even Argyle, who let’s not forget had no shots OF ANY KIND at Leeds.

There is slight mitigation – as I mentioned earlier, Portsmouth theoretically have had the toughest fixture list of any team in the league. But that excuse can’t last forever. To stay in the Championship, Mousinho simply must fix his team’s chance creation issue. For Pompey’s sake, they could do with starting that process at Home Park.

Now, teams with chance creation problems can survive at this level in certain circumstances. Burnley, for instance, have been woeful at creating chances this season, but sit fourth in the league thanks largely to their sturdy defence. Portsmouth, alas, don’t have that luxury. There are several stats I can present surrounding Portsmouth’s defence, and all should give Argyle a huge degree of confidence.

At the most basic level, they face an alarming number of shots. They’ve had 212 against them in the league so far this year, which is the second-highest number in the Championship. I accept Argyle face many shots themselves – the Greens are the only side to have faced more than Portsmouth – but they also enjoy taking shots regularly. Against Pompey, they’ll have the opportunity to do so from all angles.

I think there is an argument that Portsmouth face more dangerous shots than Argyle. Sure, the Greens have faced more overall, but Portsmouth have actually conceded more big chances (32 for Argyle, 33 for Portsmouth). With Argyle better at creating big chances at home, I’d be severely disappointed if they don’t make at least one on Tuesday night.

How could they go about creating them? Well, consider that Portsmouth are the most vulnerable team in the league to through balls. The ten successful through balls Portsmouth have faced this season is the highest total in the Championship. I know I said this when previewing the Preston game, and it didn’t quite work out for him, but Rami Al Hajj really should shine here, particularly given Argyle’s other absentees.

I’m going to reiterate a point I’ve laboured throughout this piece. Right now, it feels like an awful time to support Argyle, and it could be easy to assume this will be another difficult day. But Portsmouth fans may well be feeling the same way. A win here would do so much to lift the mood around Home Park and, given Portsmouth’s inadequacies, Argyle should absolutely be aiming for that win.

Prediction

To be brutally honest, I suspect this game will be a case of two poor teams for this level slugging it out for the points. In those circumstances, it’s safest to assume the team with the most quality will be able to see things through and eventually secure the victory.

Here, I think Argyle just about have the edge in terms of quality. For me, Morgan Whittaker is better than any player in Portsmouth’s ranks, and I think at least two of Argyle’s strikers would comfortably walk into Pompey’s side. If you’re asking me for the players I think could produce a moment of quality to decide a scrappy game of football, most are from the green side of the divide.

That’s not to say I think this will be easy. Indeed, this game could end up being uncomfortable for large periods. All things considered though, I suspect (and dearly hope) Rooney’s men will have just enough to get another win on the board. 2-1 Argyle.