Argyle's Fixture Pressure
Adam Price looks at what's in store for Plymouth Argyle after the reveal of the 2024/25 Championship fixtures.
This week, Plymouth Argyle’s fixtures for the 2024/25 Championship season were revealed. As ever, the schedule has generated plenty of discussion. Thoughts about the supposedly gentle start, the dreadful run-in and a few inconveniently placed away days have been widespread. And of course, we have a few opinions of our own.
On this piece, I worked with Ben of Green and White podcast fame to make some assessments. And when I say “worked with,” let me be clear that Ben has frankly done the lion’s share of the work. Putting this piece in my name feels dirty, fraudulent even, and I can only apologise. Still, the “first six” and “last six” graphics below were ones I produced, so I can’t be considered a total content thief, right guys? Right?!
Anyway, without further ado, let’s get stuck into some thoughts.
The folly of prediction
As an initial disclaimer, let us be clear that schedules are notoriously hard to assess before the season starts. That can be for a number of reasons, and they are exactly the same reasons why no-one gets their pre-season predicted table correct.
First of all, not all teams will be as good or bad as predicted. There are always over- and under-achievers that virtually nobody expects.
Secondly, and following on from the first point, momentum can be a significant factor between seasons, at least in certain circumstances. While some teams can carry the positive – or negative – momentum with which they ended the previous season into the new quite effectively (hello, Ipswich Town), sometimes the off-season resets the form and fortune of a team. This could be due to squad movement, fitness and health, and a plethora of enigmatic and mercurial influences. Look at Argyle’s excellent first three months of the 2021/22 season after the dismal end to 2020/21.
Thirdly, teams’ form fluctuates throughout the season – sometimes dramatically. Take Sunderland last season. Or Preston North End, who were top of the league early on. Or (ahem) Birmingham City. So, while a team may lose more than 50% of its matches in a season, it can still hit an oft-quoted but seldom-explained “purple patch” of form, and string 2 or 3 wins together at an inconvenient time for the opponents.
And lastly, especially at this time of the off-season, there is still an awful lot of movement to happen. That will of course include players, and even of coaches and other staff. It’s not even pre-season yet, yet alone “season”.
So, with nearly three hundred words expended on why it’s a folly to attempt to deduce anything from the schedule, we’re going to make like Barry Off Eastenders at the bowls – we’re gonna do it anyway.
Opposite ends
Two things jump out at most observers immediately: Argyle seem to have both a theoretically easy start, and a theoretically devilish run-in.
Three of the first four games are versus sides who also finished in the bottom eight of the Championship last season. With the four games immediately following being against Sunderland, West Bromwich Albion, Luton Town and Burnley – from which points may be slim pickings – it feels like there may be a (probably undue) pressure on the team to pick up a decent haul of points from their opening encounters.
Argyle don’t necessarily have the easiest start in the league, at least based on last season’s finishing positions. They do, however, have a much kinder time of things than some of their divisional rivals. If I cared enough for them, I may feel a little sorry for Portsmouth.
Whether picking up points early is a fair expectation for Argyle is debatable. All three of the “easier” teams involved – Sheffield Wednesday, Queens Park Rangers and Stoke City – finished last season in fine form. Wednesday and Stoke both lost only one game of their last eight, including taking ten points each from the last four games. QPR also took ten points from the last four games and managed an even longer run of only one loss in the final nine.
As mentioned, there isn’t always rhyme or reason to a team maintaining momentum into a new season. Still, on paper these three are prime candidates to continue heading in the right direction, Each has retained the key components of their squads, and their potent young managers.
In short: though the start to the season may look easy on paper, the first few months could be brutal. Even beyond the “easy” start, Argyle will likely need to hit the ground running, as the seemingly easier games are front loaded to the first-half of the season; of the last 19 games, only four will be against teams that finished in the bottom-eight last season, or were promoted from League One.
Which brings us neatly to the dauting run-in. Without getting into the gory details it is, on paper, the toughest in the league.
Fans can take some comfort from the fact that, during the crucial post-Ian Foster run-in, Argyle beat the two highest-placed teams they faced (Leicester City and Hull City). In the crazy final days of the season, crazy results happen. For example, Blackburn Rovers only saved themselves last season with a win at champions Leicester on the final day.
But, with the last 19 games being packed with teams from the top 16 places of last season, as well the teams relegated from the Premier League, it could also be true that the club is in something of a death-spiral by that point. That’d be particularly true if things have not gone well beforehand.
The below comparison, with last season’s fixtures on the left and this season’s on the right, acts as a demonstration. After hosting QPR in mid-January, games with teams you’d expect to be around Argyle are irregular.
The level of competition
The last thing to note from the fixtures release is that there is a disappointing lack of potential “whipping boys.”
Last season there were several, and people had their own favourites. Wednesday were an absolute basket-case having parted ways with Darren Moore and barely strengthening the squad. Rotherham United were punching well above their weight (or, rather, budget) and it eventually caught up with them. Huddersfield had a squad that looked under-equipped on paper and was another club whose recruitment had been conspicuous by its absence. QPR were constantly finding new methods to get in their own way.
Sadly, at least for Argyle fans, everyone seems to have their act together this season.
Of the aforementioned teams, Rotherham and Huddersfield are no longer here, replaced by the more affluent (and, arguably, shrewd) pair of Portsmouth and Derby County. QPR and Wednesday have improved dramatically, as discussed above. No one else seems to be in crisis. John Eustace seems to have righted the listing ship of Blackburn before it fully capsized. Stoke seem to be making progress at long last, even if they do have to morph into Argyle to succeed.
Whereas last season certain fixtures could be circled with optimism – if not confidence – there really aren’t many which look easy fodder for Argyle at the moment. A case could be made that Oxford United should be targeted for a six-point haul – but unlike last season, it is difficult to pick three teams Argyle “should” be finishing above.
With the teams coming into the Championship from both directions looking to be closer to the mean in terms of quality, and with most clubs still in the division stabilising or even improving, it looks to be one of the most competitive Championship seasons ever.
And with the way the fixtures have fallen, it’s one fans will hope Argyle start fast, to build enough momentum to see them end it above the dreaded dotted-line. We simply have to be close to mathematically safe by the time April arrives.