Preview: Millwall vs Plymouth Argyle

Adam Price looks at how Argyle can try to bounce back in style after the humbling at Cardiff.

I know it’s a tired cliché, I know fans of all clubs say the same thing, but honestly, there is never a dull moment supporting Plymouth Argyle.

Going into the weekend, Wayne Rooney’s side were one of the form teams in the Championship. They’d earned a highly impressive nine points between international breaks, and a trip to the league’s basement dwellers Cardiff City looked the perfect opportunity to pick up their first away win of the campaign. More than 3000 supporters travelled to South Wales and…the team forgot to get off the bus.

Nobody wants to lose 5-0 – I think that goes without saying – but it’s happened, and all Argyle can do is react. They have a chance to put things right quickly on Wednesday night with a trip to Millwall. It’s not the most glamourous fixture to inspire a stirring response, but again Argyle have no choice. They must dust themselves down, they must put in an improved display, and they must remind us of why there was so much optimism surrounding the side just a few days ago.

Millwall, like Argyle, were in relegation trouble last season. A dismal spell under Joe Edwards (no, definitely not that one) saw the panicked appointment of Neil Harris. He shone, avoiding the drop comfortably and winning his final five games of the 2023/24 campaign. What can we expect as his side look to push on this year?

Style of play

Harris’ Millwall, it will not shock you to know, are the long ball team of the Championship. Every metric you can probably imagine points to a side who care little for possession, who like to go direct, and who attempt to create chances through their physicality.

Ten games into the campaign, Millwall rank 24^th in the league for their total number of touches, their number of passes both attempted and completed, and their pass success rate. Predictably, their average possession of 42% is also the lowest in the division. What we will see is an aerial bombardment – Millwall have attempted more aerial duels than any other side in the league, and the ball will be in the air for significant periods. It’s a good job The Den has a steep away end, or sore necks may be in order.

Harris deploys a 4-2-3-1 to make this shape work. That’s a least a step closer to the modern day, with 4-4-2 being preferred during his Millwall spell last season. That style often saw another striker line up alongside a certain Michael Obafemi up front.

This season, it’s just the one striker deployed at The Den, and I suspect that’s likely to be Macauley Langstaff. The ex-Notts County striker had been linked with Argyle before signing for Millwall, and he’s started the last five after coming on against Luton Town for the injured Josh Coburn, another former Argyle target. Don’t rule out Mihailo Ivanovic starting though; he came off the bench for Langstaff and scored a late equaliser against Derby County on Saturday.

Millwall’s squad has plenty of players who are settled in the starting 11. For example, George Saville and Casper De Norre have formed a solid partnership in central midfield, and will surely get the chance to do so again. Ahead of them in the “3”, George Honeyman is a likely starter, with Duncan Watmore and Romain Esse on either side. The only other player I could see forcing himself into the side is yet another ex-Argyle target in Femi Azeez. He’s made seven Millwall appearances, though only one of those has been as a starter.

In defence, it’s fewer “ex-Argyle targets” and more “ex-Argyle players.” Ryan Leonard has started every league game at right back, whilst Joe Bryan is a likely starter on the left. Danny McNamara occasionally replaces the latter. Jake Cooper and Japhet Tanganga have continued their form from the back end of last season to form a solid defensive partnership, whilst Lucas Jensen will sit behind them in goal having arrived from Lincoln City over the summer.

With Millwall, it’s a classic case of “you know what you’re gonna get,” both in terms of selection and style. Of course, fighting it will be another matter entirely.

Strengths

Millwall have spent the majority of this season without the ball. As such, it’s probably just as well that they seem to excel out of possession.

The Lions post strong numbers for the defensive aspects of their game in many areas. That extends to all areas of the field, not just those lining up in the defensive line. For example, they are excellent at breaking up their opponents’ passing moves, having made the third-highest number of interceptions in the league. Whilst being out of possession regularly gives Millwall more opportunities to make interceptions, it’s far from the only reason for their success – Queens Park Rangers only rank 14^th for possession, but they’ve made fewer interceptions than anyone.

And whilst I am impressed with Millwall’s intercepting, they’ve been even better at tackling. With 199, Harris’ side have completed more tackles than any other team in the league. Again, this isn’t simply a case of attempting many tackles and topping the rankings as a result; Millwall’s tackle success is a superb 75%, the fourth-highest figure in the league.

Because of those numbers, I can’t work out whether Argyle will miss Ibrahim Cissoko. Would he have been the sort of player to directly challenge one of Millwall’s key strengths? Or would the Lions have been able to nullify him as Cardiff managed for the 40 minutes they needed on Saturday? I guess we’ll never know, or at least not until the reverse fixture. If Cissoko is still around, of course.

The tackling stats lend weight to the idea that Millwall are physically strong, and that’s backed up by their ground duel figures. Their success rate of 52% is up there with the best sides in the division, and only two teams have won more in total than Millwall’s 375. Interestingly, one of those teams is Argyle, so I’m curious to see who will win more of the individual battles.

Millwall are a difficult side to break down. That could be the case for Argyle in particular, who struggle to create much on the road at the best of times. And they’ll have to be on their toes at the other end too; as much as I’ve praised Millwall’s defending, that doesn’t mean they’ll sit behind the ball and try to be compact all game. In fact, Millwall have surprised many this season with just how dangerous they’ve been going forward.

In front of goal, Millwall have had 27 big chances this season. That’s a figure beaten by only two teams across the division – Leeds United and Norwich City both sit on 30 – both of whom have far loftier ambitions for the campaign. Combine that with their defensive capabilities, and it’s no surprise to see Millwall high up the expected points table. But I was taken aback by exactly how well they’re doing. Normal caveats apply, but their current total of 18.97 expected points has them third on the list, a far cry from their actual league position of 20^th.

Millwall’s style may be basic, but it can clearly be mightily effective. If Argyle put in anything like the performance we saw at Cardiff, it’ll prove far too much for them to handle.

Weaknesses

The questions to ask are obvious. Millwall seem incredibly solid defensively, and their number of big chances puts many sides with larger budgets to shame. Why, therefore, do they find themselves just two points and two places above the relegation zone, and below Argyle in the league?

It’s worth taking stock of just how heavily Millwall are underperforming. As I mentioned previously, they have an expected points total of 18.97. Taken alongside their actual points total of ten, they’re underperforming by a total of 8.97 points. Nobody is underperforming to that level across the league. In truth, nobody has come close to underperforming to that level.

The issue can’t really be pinned on any area of the side, with both attack and defence suffering. Millwall have scored 13 goals this season from an xG of 16.98, an underperformance of 3.98 (only Middlesbrough are performing worse in that regard). At the other end, Millwall have conceded 12 goals from an xG against of 9.43, an underperformance of 2.57. Millwall aren’t scoring the goals they should, and are conceding goals they shouldn’t; I’d argue that horrible combination is largely to blame for their lowly league position.

Why are Millwall underperforming to such an extent? Well, poor fortune obviously plays a role, but I have the feeling there must be some sort of mentality issue at play. Across many games this season, Harris’ side have seemed somehow immune to winning the big moments, and it’s already cost them a sizable number of points.

The opening day, when Millwall hosted Watford, provides an example. Millwall were by far the better side, but two long-range goals from the Hornets gave them a mountain to climb. They scaled it, with a Watmore double bringing the score back to 2-2 with two minutes to play. And having done all that work…they still lost the game to a 90^th minute winner.

That trend continued into Millwall’s second game of the campaign at Bristol City. They went 2-0 down early, but once again the Lions came roaring back and actually got themselves into a lead with 15 minutes remaining. Once again though, they still found a way to lose the game, with Scott Twine’s late goal securing a 4-3 victory for the hosts.

The trend of Millwall failing to win games they ought to continues, and includes their weekend meeting with Derby. They dominated once more, Langstaff could have scored twice, but they again found themselves behind when Jerry Yates headed in from what was practically the Rams’ only chance of the game. Millwall would escape with a point, but it should have been far more. At some point, this stops being simply unlucky, stops being a mere coincidence, and suggests something in the side’s mentality is awry.

It creates a fascinating dynamic heading into this game. Argyle have had their own mental weaknesses away from home since returning the Championship, and that’s putting it lightly. In Millwall, they face another opponent with a potentially soft underbelly. A physical battle against Neil Harris’ side is guaranteed, but the mental battle will be just as important, if not more.

There is one final, more tactical reason why Millwall may be failing to pick up points they’ll feel they deserve. Perhaps surprisingly for a “bodies on the line” side, they don’t block many shots. Only Middlesbrough and Leeds have blocked fewer shots than Millwall’s 24 this season, and both have faced far fewer overall. It could mean low xG opportunities that other sides would simply block away are troubling Millwall more than most.

Remember on Saturday when Darko Gyabi froze when presented with a presentable chance, preferring instead to let Lewis Gibson blast over with his weaker foot? I want to see none of that this time around. Shooting, and shooting regularly, must be the instinct.

Prediction

Given the mental frailties of both sides, whichever team keeps their heads will probably be the one that wins the game. So, who do I expect to keep their heads? The team who have won three of their last 30 away games and have just been bruised by a 5-0 drubbing? Or the team who will be backed by a vociferous home crowd under the lights?

I’d love to be wrong, and I can certainly see a world where I am wrong. I have to say though, Millwall strike me as by far the likeliest winners of this encounter. I’ve no doubt the hosts will have the better of the game, and this time around I suspect it’ll be enough to see them over the line. 2-0 Millwall.