Preview: Leeds vs Plymouth Argyle

Adam Price returns to preview Argyle's trip to Leeds

Plymouth Argyle’s away form is a disgrace.

The Greens have one draw and eight defeats from their last nine trips, having scored just one goal and conceded 20. You have to go back to April for Argyle’s last win on the road: a 1-0 triumph over Rotherham United. If you don’t care to include wins against one of the worst sides the Championship has ever seen, it’s back to February for a victory over Middlesbrough. Exclude games overseen by a tyrant and it’s…Port Vale, the title-winning day at the end of 2022/23.

There are so many stats we can throw, but we all know it: Argyle have been abysmal away from Home Park. And when that’s the case, the one thing you don’t want is a trip to one of the best teams in the league. And if you’re unlucky enough to have that on the horizon, for the love of God don’t go there in the midst of an injury crisis. A depleted Argyle, presumably as punishment for our collective sins in previous lives, travel to Elland Road to take on Leeds United on Saturday.

Stranger things have happened than Argyle securing a victory in this game…but not many. It’d be an almighty upset if Wayne Rooney’s side do win at Elland Road, probably the biggest we’d have seen involving Argyle for many years. Let’s take a look at the opposition as the Pilgrims aim to perform a miracle.

Style of play

On their last away trip, Argyle played against Millwall, the classing “long ball” team of the Championship. In Leeds, they’ll experience the polar opposite. Under Daniel Farke, Leeds like to keep the ball on the floor more than anyone. Leeds have attempted 6532 passes this season, completing 5611. Both figures are league highs. But it’s a completely different story when looking specifically at long passes. Leeds have attempted 473 and completed 197, both of which are the lowest figures in the league.

In total, Leeds go long with 7% of their passes, and it naturally follows that this too is the lowest figure in the Championship. By contrast, Millwall’s long balls amount to 20% of their total passes. Proportionate to possession, for every long ball Leeds play, Millwall play about three. Argyle will need to be prepared for a completely different battle.

With the above figures in mind, it probably won’t come as a surprise that Leeds enjoy plenty of possession. This season they’ve averaged 59% across their 12 league games. It’s another figure that ranks highly across the Championship, though interestingly it’s beaten into first place by Swansea City (61%). The key difference is that Swansea are a “possession for the sake of it” side, demonstrated by the fact they’ve scored fewer goals than anyone in the league. Leeds will be patient at times, but they’re always looking for ways to break down their opponents.

When they don’t have the ball, Leeds deploy an active press in an attempt to swiftly win back possession. Given they’re often on the front foot, Leeds don’t need to complete as many defensive actions as the average side. As such, it speaks volumes that they’ve completed the fourth-highest number of tackles in the league (214). It’s a hallmark of a side who are desperate to win the ball back whenever possible, and they’ll press Argyle from the front on Saturday.

Leeds’ style is intense out of possession and more serene with the ball. To get the best out of it, Farke likes lining up with a 4-2-3-1. It has a solid foundation at the back, with Ilian Meslier starting every game in goal, and support provided with a settled central defensive partnership of Pascal Struijk and Joe Rodon.

The full back positions may provide more of a conundrum. In Leeds’ 0-0 draw away at Bristol City last time out, Sam Byram filled in at left back after Junior Firpo picked up a suspension for five yellow card offences. Firpo is available again, but Jayden Bogle at right back is now suspended for the same reason. My money would be on Firpo coming straight back in with Byram shifting over to right back, but there are other options.

The midfield has been a bone of contention for Leeds fans this season. That’s after it was brutally decimated by long-term injuries to both Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev, leaving a gaping hole to be filled. Recently, Ao Tanaka and Joe Rothwell have been filling that hole together, though don’t rule out a debut for Josuha Guilavogui. The 34-year-old signed as an emergency free agent last week to provide cover for Ampadu and Gruev.

In the front four, Leeds are particularly fearsome. Brendan Aaronson has been lining up as the number 10, with the supremely talented Willy Gnonto to his right. On the left, Largie Ramazani may have picked up an injury, but it’s coincided perfectly with Dan James recovering from his own knock. And up front, Mateo Joseph and Joel Piroe are both strong options, with Patrick Bamford also available.

Even Leeds’ reserves would get into Argyle’s side. We know that for a fact, with Leeds loanee Darko Gyabi a regular in Rooney’s team whenever he’s available (of course, he won’t be this weekend). A trip to Elland Road would be tricky for even the top sides in the division, let alone one allergic to travelling.

Strengths

Statistically, there is an argument that Leeds have been the best team in the Championship for the last two seasons. It’s not an argument without caveats, I’ll grant you, but there’s certainly a case to be made.

The expected points table provides the example. Last season, Leeds posted an expected points total of 91.81. That’s higher than even champions Leicester City (91.13), and comfortably beats Southampton (82.85) and Ipswich Town (82.07), both of whom were promoted to the Premier League. Leeds were of course right up there last season, defeated only in the play-off final, but disciples of the “justice league” would suggest they deserved to do even better.

That trend has continued to the current season. Leeds have racked up a total of 25.02 expected points from their 12 games, a figure once again in the upper reaches of the Championship. Right now it would place them in second, narrowly behind Middlesbrough with 25.25. That is, however, skewed by game state. Middlesbrough have been trailing more than they’ve been leading this season, and will have been more likely to push forward and build up xG as a result. The opposite is true of Leeds.

Expected points is not a perfect statistic. Ultimately, it is just a statistic, and needs to be contextualised if it’s to hold any weight. I could write a whole piece on the details, but have no desire to add to my already burgeoning reputation for being incredibly dull. In short, the expected points table confirms what we already believed to be true: Leeds are good. Many would claim they are far too good for this level.

Naturally, a team posting such numbers has strengths at both ends of the field. Leeds have had more shots on target than anyone in the league, and they’ve posted the lowest figure for expected goals against. For me though, it’s the way they’ve created chances across the campaign that has been the most impressive element of their game.

Across the season, Leeds have had 38 Opta-defined big goalscoring chances. That’s a figure higher than anyone else in the league, and over three times the 11 Argyle have had, which happens to be the lowest. To put the gargantuan nature of Leeds’ figure into perspective, they’ve actually MISSED more big chances (26) than more than half the teams in the league have had in total.

That count of big chances includes all sorts of opportunities, including those obtained via a lucky deflection or an opposition mistake. Look at big chances created, which only focus on chances where a player has actively passed to a teammate, and the difference between Leeds and everyone else is even more stark. Farke’s men have created 31 big chances this season, with Millwall the next highest on 24. Argyle have made seven.

Clearly, there are plenty of individuals in Leeds’ ranks who could hurt Argyle at the weekend. If I had to narrow it down to one though, I’d choose Gnonto. There’s a reason Premier League clubs have been interested in the Italian, and Leeds were delighted when he decided to extend his contract for that same reason.

Gnonto makes Leeds tick more than anyone. He tops the club’s ranks for important attacking statistics such as key passes and dribbles completed. Most eye-catching is his total of seven big chances created. Not only does that top Leeds’ charts, it also ranks seriously well in the league as a whole with only Bristol City’s Scott Twine (eight) having created more. To put that another way, Gnonto has created as many big chances this season as the entirety of Argyle’s squad put together.

With Rooney looking like he’ll have to deploy a makeshift defence at Elland Road, I’m terrified for whoever has to face the 20-year-old directly.

Weaknesses

For Argyle to get a positive result, they’ll need plenty to go their way. A touch of good fortune wouldn’t go amiss, and the Greens will need to be clinical with their own chances whilst hoping Leeds spurn a few of their own. For the optimists amongst you, there are stats suggesting that could be exactly what happens.

As it so often does, expected goals provides the evidence. This season, Leeds have amassed a total xG of 20.29. That figure measures the quality of the chances they’ve had, but let’s compare that to post-shot xG, which measures the quality of the shot itself. Across the campaign, Leeds’ post-shot xG total comes to 16.68, 3.61 below their actual xG figure. They’re shooting badly – in fact, nobody in the league is underperforming to a higher level when comparing their post-shot xG to their actual xG.

Now, I should clarify that this doesn’t necessarily mean that Leeds are the worst shooters in the league. Their underperformance needs to be taken in proportion to their actual xG, and teams with a lower actual xG whose post-shot xG underperforms may be worse shooters in practice. It does, however, suggest Leeds aren’t scoring the goals the goals they ought to, or even shooting as well as the average team would with the same chances. That’s got to hurt when you have title-winning ambitions.

Moving on from the front line, I do just want to touch on the midfield again. As I mentioned earlier, Leeds’ midfield has been depleted by injury, and the options they have now certainly wouldn’t have been first choice at the start of the campaign. That’s not to say either Tanaka or Rothwell are poor players, and I have no doubt they’d both walk into Argyle’s side. But if you’re looking to pinpoint where Leeds may be a little weaker than you’d expect, it’s in the centre of the park.

I’m curious to see how Rooney uses this information. Argyle have injury problems of their own, and there have been numerous theories about how the Greens could change their shape to accommodate those available. For me, packing the midfield is the best possible option, should personnel allow. If Rooney sticks with four at the back, it simply must be a 4-3-3, with Rami Al Hajj in a deeper role should he start.

Finally, this weakness isn’t specific to Leeds, but it’s important to mention anyway: pressure can do funny things to a football team. Farke’s side are expected to win this game, and they’re expected to do so comfortably. Argyle, on the other hand, go to Elland Road with the freedom of knowing that any positive result would be a bonus. Unless they’re completely humiliated, and I suppose we can’t rule that out, they know they’re unlikely to face many questions and can move swiftly on whatever happens.

The pressure and expectation is all on Leeds – should they fail to win, it wouldn’t be the first time that pressure has gotten the better of them at home. At the back end of last season with Blackburn Rovers facing the drop and Leeds aiming for promotion, Rovers travelled to Elland Road and secured a shock 1-0 victory. Earlier in the campaign, Sheffield Wednesday were a basket case under Xisco Munoz, but they were still able to prevent Leeds winning at home, securing a credible 0-0 draw last September.

Obviously, Argyle will not be expected to get a result this weekend. But if they do, such a result wouldn’t be without precedent. Leeds have form for dropping points unnecessarily, and it’s probably the main reason they haven’t yet returned to the top flight.

Prediction

This will be Argyle’s third visit to Elland Road in the space of a year, following a 2-1 defeat under Steven Schumacher and a 1-1 draw under Ian Foster. What I wouldn’t give to return to those Foster away day (he says, only half-sarcastically – it was of course the home form that ultimately made Foster’s position untenable).

Of the three, I’m the least confident by far on this occasion. Argyle’s away form is possibly as bad as it’s ever been, Leeds remain arguably the strongest side they can face, and the Greens’ starting lineup will be a long way from full strength. On paper, it’s a recipe for disaster.

There is a route to Argyle winning this game, and the 1600 Janners making the journey will cling on to that route, but it’s narrow. Meanwhile, there are a number of routes towards Leeds coming out on top, and I’d certainly suggest this is closer to a 4-0 win for the hosts than a 1-0 win for the visitors.

With that in mind, I’ll go for something somewhere in the middle: a close but ultimately comfortable 2-0 win for Leeds.