Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Preston

With the mood shifting at a tense Home Park, Adam Price previews a return to familiar territory.

A long shot it may be, but if anyone has access to a time machine, I’d love to go back seven days.

It’s remarkable how the mood can change in the space of a week. Plymouth Argyle went into the last international break on cloud nine, the 2-1 win over Blackburn Rovers before the interval seeing one of their best performances since returning to the Championship. Now, it’s a hellscape. Argyle followed up a 5-0 drubbing in Cardiff with an insipid performance, and another defeat, at Millwall in midweek. The Green Army have travelled hundreds of miles for no goals, no wins, and six goals against.

The optimists would suggest Argyle are simply longing for some home comforts, and we’ll find out on Saturday whether that’ll be a successful remedy. Preston North End are the latest visitors to Home Park, currently sitting 16^th in the Championship. They were managed by Ryan Lowe for the entirety of pre-season, before he was cleaned out after just one game, with Paul Heckingbottom now taking the hotseat.

Many will remember that Heckingbottom was interviewed for the Argyle head coach role over the summer, and looked in pole position to secure the role before the hierarchy opted for Wayne Rooney. Many will also recall Nathan Jones celebrating Luton Town’s victory in front of the Argyle directors’ box, after he was overlooked for a role at the Pilgrims in favour of Derek Adams (how did that season turn out, Nathan?). I have a strong desire to avoid similar scenes.

Can Argyle get the job done? Let’s take a look at the team aiming to deal another blow to the Greens this week.

Style of play

During the 90 minutes of the season spent under Lowe, Preston played the 3-1-4-2 shape we became so familiar with during his spell at Argyle. Heckingbottom does occasionally play with three at the back, but more recently he’s aimed to put his own stamp on the side by lining up with a 4-2-3-1. I’d imagine that’s the more likely of the two to be seen at Home Park.

That being said, the shape itself can be flexible – it’s one of those that can be a back four in possession and a back five without the ball. Versatility at the back can make this successful; Liam Lindsay and Jordan Storey are bona fide centre backs, but Andrew Hughes can act as a left back or on the left of a back three. That allows Robbie Brady to play as either a wing back or winger, depending on the situation.

Wherever he lines up, Brady’s role will be crucial. Preston’s style going forward relies on getting the ball out wide and crossing it, and for the stats we have available (up to but not including the midweek games, as will be the case for all stats in this piece), Brady has attempted more crosses than all but six players in the league. He’s probably the best crosser in the side, but the corresponding player on the right will have a similar role. That’s a position likely to be taken up by either Brad Potts or a familiar face in Kaine Kesler-Hayden.

In the build-up, Preston like to go direct, but they’re not your classic long ball team. Rather, they play frequent, accurate long passes, and I don’t think anybody demonstrates this more than goalkeeper Freddie Woodman. Only two players in the Championship have attempted more long passes, but Woodman has completed his with a success rate of 54%. That’s a higher figure than any goalkeeper in the league, and makes him the only ‘keeper to complete more long passes than he fails.

Those numbers suggest to me that we’ll see plenty of diagonal balls pinged out wide, and balls for the forwards to run on to being played into the channels and over the defence. Basically, I expect Preston to threaten Argyle like Stoke City did in their win at Home Park back in August. Stoke had plenty of big chances that day, and Argyle will need to ensure they’re less vulnerable this time around.

There’s a certain Scandinavian feel to those who aim to benefit from Preston’s build-up play. Danes Mads Frokjaer-Jensen and Emil Riis, as well as Stefan Thordarson of Iceland, will be fighting for a place in the front line. They’ll be battling with some non-Nordic options such as Josh Bowler and Sam Greenwood, both of whom arrived at Deepdale over the summer. Duane Holmes has featured in all but one game, albeit with only two starts, and he may be in contention on the right.

That leaves just the midfield. Ben Whiteman currently holds the title of the league’s naughtiest boy with more yellow cards than anyone, and I suspect he’ll start alongside one of Ali McCann and Ryan Ledson. Potts, Thordarson and Holmes can all fill in, and one may well do if Heckingbottom wants to add another body to the midfield away from home.

Whoever starts for Preston, expect them to be a physical presence, particularly in the middle of the park. So far this season, they’ve committed more fouls than any other team in the Championship. Having faced Millwall just a few days ago, Argyle will need to be prepared for another fight.

Strengths

Last season, despite struggling under Lowe for large periods, I was impressed by some individuals in the Preston defence. That’s evolved since Heckingbottom’s arrival. Not only are the strong players still present, Preston now seem more secure as a defensive unit since Lowe’s departure. Those who watched Argyle during the 2020/21 season may not be too surprised.

I should say this still isn’t perfect. Perhaps as a hangover from the Lowe era, Preston still do defend poorly occasionally. For example, they too have recently lost at Millwall, but conceded three goals compared to the one shipped by Argyle. Nonetheless, Heckingbottom appears to have realised that he has all the pieces in his defensive line to make it a serious strength, and that’s something I expect to grow as the season progresses.

As was the case last season, Lindsay is a vital cog in the defensive machine. He’s probably at his best in the middle of a back three (the classic Dan Scarr role under Lowe), but he’s shown sufficient proficiency this season when required to be part of a back four. I wouldn’t describe him as your modern day “Rolls Royce” defender, but he’s always someone who seems to get the basics right.

His defensive actions this season provide strong evidence. Lindsay tops the charts for his side in terms of clearances, with his tally of 43 only beaten by 12 players across the league. With interceptions it’s even better – nobody in the Championship has completed more than Lindsay’s 28. In total Lindsay has completed 89 defensive actions this season, a total beaten by only three players in the league: Ben Wilmot of Stoke, Dennis Cirkin of Sunderland, and Argyle’s own Lewis Gibson. Having played a game fewer, Lindsay has all three beaten for defensive actions per 90 minutes.

Another trait of Lindsay’s game, as you’d perhaps expect for a defender who stands at 6 ft 4, is his aerial prowess. Last year nobody in the league won more aerial duels at a better success rate than Lindsay. And he’s started this season in similar fashion, his total of 33 aerial duels won ranking within the top ten across the division. He’s also won them at a quality success rate of 65%. Perhaps more interestingly though, he doesn’t top Preston’s ranks for either metric currently.

The title for most aerial duels won goes to Hughes. He’s come out on top in 41 battles this season, winning those duels at an outstanding success rate of 76%. Storey can increase that rate even further. With 27, he hasn’t won as high a raw number as either of his defensive partners, but he’s won them at a success rate of 77%. Argyle’s defenders have their own strengths, but none come close to that figure, with Gibson’s success rate of 67% the best on offer at Home Park.

That’s a trend that extends through the entire Preston side. In fact, their total aerial duel success rate of 58% is the highest figure in the entire division. It’s totally at odds with Argyle, whose 42% success rate is the second-lowest in the league. With Muhamed Tijani absent, I don’t think I’d trust any of Argyle’s forwards to hold up the ball.

This is where the Greens will have to be careful. They may have the beating of Preston on the floor, but they’ll have no chance if it becomes an aerial battle. As the home side, they simply must play the game on their own terms. The game will become so much more difficult to win if they get sucked into battles they don’t fancy, as is so often the case on their travels.

I imagine this is the sort of game that would suit Ibrahim Cissoko. His red card at Cardiff is looking more idiotic by the day.

Weaknesses

In front of us, we have a team in the bottom half of the table who at least look competent defensively. So, what’s the cause of their struggles? You guessed it: Preston appear somewhat toothless going forward.

Some of the more obvious stats paint a clear picture. Prior to the midweek fixtures, Preston had taken a total of 98 shots, the lowest number in the league. And it isn’t as if that’s because the shots they do take are particularly dangerous – they also rank second-last for their 31 shots on target, above only Swansea City with 30. It naturally follows that only Swansea have scored fewer goals than Preston this season.

As ever, expected goals stats tell their own story. Preston’s pre-midweek total of 10.15 is a poor figure, with only four sides posting a lower number. Even then, that’s heavily subsidised by set piece chances. Preston’s set piece xG is actually one of the highest in the league at 3.89, and accounts for 38% of their total xG. Derby County (45%) are the only team to rely more heavily on set pieces for their total xG figure.

Sure, that set piece prowess may sustain a side for a brief period. Ultimately though, Heckingbottom is going to have to do something about his side’s open play xG. Pre-midweek, that number sat at 6.28, the third-lowest in the division. That’s a lower open play xG figure than even Argyle, who didn’t have an Opta-defined big goalscoring chance in the league until matchday five.

The shooting and xG numbers seem to be part of a wider attacking malaise at Preston. Across their first ten games of the season, they had a total of 184 touches in the opposition penalty area. Again, that’s a figure amongst the lowest in the Championship. In short, Preston aren’t getting the ball into dangerous areas often enough, and when they do they aren’t being particularly clinical.

It’s all evidence that Argyle must look to play on their terms. Think back to our preview of Blackburn’s visit three weeks ago. Argyle knew that Blackburn were unlikely to shoot often, but had to be wary of their opponents’ accuracy when they were in front of goal. Preston haven’t offered the same accuracy. With that in mind, and given an aerial battle would hinder Argyle, they simply have to take control of the game and win their battles, particularly in midfield. Should he start, Darko Gyabi will need to have a strong game.

There is one final thing to note. Perhaps surprisingly, given I’ve spent a lot of time in this piece praising Preston’s defending, they are particularly susceptible to through balls. There have been nine successful through balls against Preston so far this season, which is a joint league high along with Portsmouth. It suggests that a creative player could have plenty of joy when looking for an onrushing striker.

Given he didn’t start in midweek, this feels like the sort of game tailor made for Rami Al Hajj. And despite his barren spell, I wouldn’t necessarily be against Hardie starting to give Preston’s defence something else to think about.

Prediction

Preston are a team who are strong defensively and weak going forward. At home at least, Argyle are a team who thrive when on the attack, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league all season. My natural reaction is that these two will find a way of cancelling each other out, and a draw may be in order.

There is one element we’re yet to consider though: Argyle need a reaction. And yes, we said this before the Millwall game and didn’t come close to getting that reaction, but we know Argyle are a different beast at home. A few of those in green will feel they have a point to prove, and in front of their own fans I just have a feeling that’ll be enough to carry the Pilgrims over the line. Maybe I’m letting blind optimism take over, but I’ll go for 2-1 Argyle.