Preview: Watford vs Plymouth Argyle

Adam Price looks forward to Argyle's League Cup trip to Vicarage Road

Be honest, how many of you are still recovering from Saturday lunchtime? I think my heartrate has just returned to normal after Plymouth Argyle’s incident-packed encounter with Queens Park Rangers. It could well prove to be an early ‘coming of age’ moment for Wayne Rooney’s side, as the Pilgrims took on a strong QPR and referee Gavin Ward to secure a highly credible 1-1 draw.

After such an energy-sapping game, a week off would be highly welcome. Alas, this sport isn’t always the kindest, although at least this midweek excursion doesn’t carry the additional pressure of a league fixture. The League Cup draw hasn’t been particularly kind either; I don’t mean this disrespectfully, because I enjoyed my trip to Watford last season, but an away draw against a team in the same league is probably about as boring as it gets.

In Watford, Argyle face one of the early surprise packages. Following an uneventful summer under the inexperienced management of Tom Cleverley, many expected them to struggle. Thus far though, they boast an unblemished record, winning all three league games and cruising through the first round of this competition with a 5-0 victory. Let’s take our customary look at what they may offer.

Style of play

For much of last season, Watford lined up with a system of four at the back. However, Cleverley appears to prefer a 3-4-2-1, similar to the formation Argyle used under Steven Schumacher in their title-winning season. Like that system, much of the excitement comes from the two men behind the striker.

Given this is a cup game, it’s not particularly easy to foresee who will start in those positions. Edo Kayembe and Giorgi Chakvetadze, the latter of whom shone for Georgia at Euro 2024, have been clear first choices so far in the league, but neither played against Milton Keynes in the first round of the cup.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Imran Louza involved. He impressed against Argyle at the start of last season, but appeared to fall out of favour for much of the campaign. Ahead of the attacking midfielders, Vakoun Bayo has started each game up front in the league, but Mileta Rajovic has been preferred in the cup.

Getting the ball to their creative outlets may rely heavily on the three centre backs. They like to ping the ball long, and in Watford’s defence they’re not a traditional long-ball team, they’re just very good at playing long passes. Last season, the Hornets completed more long passes than any other team in the Championship, despite only having attempted the ninth-highest number.

The make-up of the defence is tricky to predict, and not just because this is a cup game. Star man of last season Wesley Hoedt has recently departed for the Saudi Pro League, and his absence will surely be felt across the campaign.

Replacing him is a huge ask; for this one, I’d expect to see Josh Morris given a chance in the cup, alongside two of Francisco Sierralta, Mattie Pollock and Ryan Porteous, the latter of whom didn’t shine quite as brightly at Euro 2024. Jonathan Bond should continue as the designated cup goalkeeper.

Between those lines we’ll see two central midfielders. Tom Dele-Bashiru has started every game in league and cup thus far, and in the league he’s been partnered with Moussa Sissoko (yes, that one! The ex-Spurs one with 71 caps for France). Against MK, Tom Ince was used as somewhat of a makeshift deep midfielder, but I can’t see that being repeated. This time, I’d expect to see either Sissoko or new signing Pierre Dwomoh, provided he was registered in time to feature.

As with most systems with wing backs, significant onus is placed on them to have an impact in both defence and attack. Academy graduate Ryan Andrews had somewhat of a breakout season on the right last year, and he’s started this one even better – he scored a hat-trick in the first round, and it’d be a surprise if he didn’t play again. There are a few options on the left, with any one of Jeremy Ngakia, Ken Sema and Yasser Larouci looking like they’re in with a chance to start.

Having seen it so successfully up close in 2022/23, we’re all aware of how a 3-4-2-1 system can operate at its best. Watford’s style can be a little more direct than we saw with Schumacher, but the roles of each member of the team tend to be similar to what we know. It has its midfield holes, but against this version of Argyle I wouldn’t be surprised if the style was effective.

Strengths

I find myself in a strikingly similar situation to when I was assessing QPR at the weekend. In normal circumstances, Ilias Chair would have been easy to discuss as Rangers’ best player, and had I been writing this piece last season the same would have applied to Hoedt. He was the obvious winner of Watford’s player of the season award, and will be sorely missed. His departure also slightly negates a strength I mentioned in the previous section, with Hoedt being responsible for many of the successful long passes.

With that in mind, I’ve been impressed by how Watford have coped with his absence. Cleverley has …cleverly brought his side together, and their ability to win the big moments in all their matches has served them well. In each league game this season, they’ve managed to overcome some sort of adversity to claim the three points.

Take their opener with Millwall as an example. Having taken a 2-0 lead, Watford came under extreme pressure, before finally being pegged back to 2-2 in the 88^th minute. From there, they somehow managed to turn the momentum around and win, with Rajovic nodding home a last-minute winner.

Then came their first league home game against Stoke City. The first half then was a complete snoozefest, with the teams going in goalless having produced just 0.42 xG between them. From there, Cleverley managed to rouse his troops, and within five minutes of the restart Watford had already scored twice. They’d end up completing a dominant 3-0 victory.

Most recently they played newly promoted Derby County. They fell behind in just the second minute to Ebou Adams’ excellent volleyed finish. But they refused to panic, turned the game around, and snatched the winner late on through Sissoko.

All of those are hallmarks of a team pulling in the right direction. How many times have we watched an Argyle team look tidy on the ball but ultimately come unstuck in both boxes? It’s been the opposite at Watford so far this season. They may not be totally dominant in every game they play, but thus far they’ve managed to win every time. It’s a fantastic trait to have, particularly so early in a manager’s reign.

One specific skill Cleverley can rely on when sending his side out to battle is their long-range shooting. Last season, Watford took just 58% of their shots from inside the penalty area, the lowest proportion of any side in the league. Interestingly, they were the only team in the Championship to take a higher proportion of their shots from outside the box than Argyle.

And it’s a trend that looks as though it’ll continue. The Millwall game provided a good example, as the Hornets scored both goals from outside the box. The first had a degree of fortune as Kayembe scored directly from a corner, but the second left nothing to chance. Take a look at Chakvetadze’s sumptuous free kick to double Watford’s lead on the day.

Despite initial reports that he’d be cup-tied, new Argyle goalkeeper Dan Grimshaw looks as though he’ll make his debut in this game. He’ll need to be on his toes throughout.

Weaknesses

Reading the above, some of you may have some doubts about Watford’s ability to keep winning games. It’s reasonable to question whether their current run of results is sustainable, and in all honesty it probably isn’t.

I’ve first been struck by the fact they’ve conceded a significant number of big chances. They’ve had 11 against them overall in the league, including seven against Millwall on opening day. To put that into perspective, that’s the same number Sheffield Wednesday had in their crushing 4-0 victory against Argyle. Now, we can praise Watford for coming through that game with a win under immense pressure, as indeed we have, but there’s no doubt a slice of good fortune was involved.

We can also look at trends from across the last campaign to support the hypothesis that Watford’s hot streak will eventually fizzle out. Consider that last season Watford posted a shot accuracy figure of 31%. That’s not great. In fact, only four teams in the league had a lower shot accuracy last year, and two of those were relegated.

Things have been different this season, with Watford seemingly hitting the target and scoring just when it becomes necessary. But I cannot see how that can continue. They haven’t brought in a raft of attacking options, and unless there are some genius finishing drills in Cleverley’s training sessions (unlikely), one suspects the law of averages will see their shot accuracy come back down eventually.

Their defence also feels like it may be on a knife-edge. Watford’s centre backs are all generally accomplished defenders, and as a collective appear perfectly fine, but to use a classic cliché, ‘they always look like they have a mistake in them.’ Hoedt was actually guilty of this on a few occasions, but given his general defending competence, things may get even worse in his absence.

Last season, Watford made a total of 13 mistakes leading directly to an opposition shot, the second-highest number in the Championship. That’s a trend that looks like it may continue, with Morris already guilty of an error leading to a shot in his outing against Stoke. Interestingly, Watford haven’t ranked highly for mistakes leading directly to goals. It suggests they’ve been lucky, and more clinical finishing from their opponents could have them in trouble. It still may hurt them this season.

All the above may be pertinent to Watford’s campaign as a whole, but what will it mean for Argyle in this game? Well, that depends entirely on your mindset. Watford feel like the sort of team who should have chances created against them, but Argyle have had zero big chances in their three league games. Indeed, they remain the only side in the Championship not to have had a single big goalscoring opportunity.

It’s one of those that depends on your natural level of optimism. Will Watford give Argyle the perfect opportunity to start creating big chances against Championship opposition? Or will Argyle give Watford the perfect opportunity to shore up their defence ahead of tougher tests to come? Take your pick.

Prediction

I genuinely think Argyle will have a good chance of beating Watford at some stage. Cleverley’s side may have won every game so far, but they’re far from unbeatable. I think they’ve shown enough to suggest they won’t be threatened with relegation this season, but they wouldn’t be the first team to fall away to mid table mediocrity after a flying start to the campaign.

Still, we have to consider the here and now. Watford are riding the crest of a wave, whilst Argyle are finding many ways to ensure they don’t get into a winning position (blowing their lead against Hull City, going down to nine men against QPR, falling apart against Sheffield Wednesday).

Cup games are amongst the hardest to predict, given you have to expect rotation on both sides. On this occasion though, I imagine the hosts will just be a little too strong. 2-1 Watford.