It’s been a stressful few weeks. Ever since it became apparent that Michael Cooper’s future would lie away from Home Park, Plymouth Argyle’s search for his replacement has felt frantic. Several names have been linked with a move, with some rumours seeming genuine and others spewed out by bogus bandwagon jumpers. For a while, one began to wonder whether Argyle would sign anybody at all to replace their departed ‘keeper.
Finally, they have. Dan Grimshaw is the man chosen, joining from League One side Blackpool on a permanent deal. The fee for Grimshaw’s services is officially undisclosed, but is heavily rumoured to be £600,000 before any potential add-ons take effect. He wasn’t registered in time to play in Argyle’s 1-1 draw against Queens Park Rangers, and supposedly can’t play against Watford due to the horrendously archaic cup-tied rule, but we’ll surely see him involved soon.
With a goalkeeper, there are generally three main attributes to analyse: shot stopping, distribution and commanding the penalty area. We’ll therefore look at each one in turn, before assessing the deal as a whole based on those findings.
Shot stopping
I’ve always felt that the main attribute for a goalkeeper is keeping the ball out of the net. Perhaps I was born in the wrong era. Regardless, much of the narrative surrounding Grimshaw since he was first linked to Argyle suggests he’s a very good shot stopper, and I’ve seen enough in his data to agree.
Starting off with the basics, Grimshaw made 111 saves last season whilst conceding 47 goals. That gives him a save success rate of 70%. It’s already above average, and fits in nicely with the good standard of goalkeeping on show at Argyle last season; Conor Hazard posted a figure of 67%, whilst Cooper managed to reach 72%.
But we can go so much deeper than simple save success stats by looking at post-shot xG data. This allows us to focus on the quality, rather than just the quantity, of the shots a ‘keeper faces. Again, Grimshaw looks strong.
Post-shot xG data suggests that the average goalkeeper would have conceded 50.69 goals facing the same shots as Grimshaw last season. Only conceding 47 means Grimshaw officially ‘prevented’ 3.69 goals, appreciating that this is an average and it’s impossible to prevent 0.69 of a goal in practice.
The fact that he’s posted a positive number is already very encouraging – because own goals always count as 0.00 post-shot xG, most goalkeepers actually slightly underperform against the numbers they face. Grimshaw has overperformed.
His numbers again compare favourably to Argyle’s goalkeepers. Last season Cooper prevented 3.66 goals, only narrowly lower than Grimshaw (in far fewer appearances), and despite a strong start Hazard actually underperformed, with a final figure of -0.66 goals prevented. Still better than many in the league, but not on the same level as Grimshaw or Cooper.
We can delve even further. Looking at the raw goals prevented number is better than looking at save success, but it still favours ‘keepers who face a higher number of shots (after all, the more shots you face the more goals you can prevent). To combat that, we can instead divide the post-shot xG number by the total number of goals conceded to pinpoint a prevented rate, where any figure above 1 is an overperformance and any figure below is an underperformance.
In effect, it asks “how many goals would the average goalkeeper concede for every one this goalkeeper concedes?” When we ask that question, Grimshaw more or less splits the difference between Cooper and Hazard.
Whichever way you cut it, Grimshaw saves shots proficiently. I’m not convinced he’s better at it than Cooper, but it’s clearly one of his strengths. And given I see shot stopping as a ‘keeper’s most important attribute, he’s off to a good start.
Distribution
Goalkeeper distribution has become a hot topic at Argyle in recent weeks, particularly with Hazard taking the gloves at the start of the season. The Northern Irishman’s kicking has always been perceived as a weakness, and one moment in particular against Hull City sticks in the memory. With Argyle pushing for a winner late on, Hazard instead decided to needlessly run the clock down for a free kick, with the final whistle blowing shortly afterwards to condemn the Greens to just a point.
There are things we can and can’t do when analysing distribution. To my knowledge, there are no stats readily available on the average pace of a goalkeeper’s distribution. Therefore, I can’t say for certain whether Grimshaw would have treated the Hull incident any differently. What we can do is assess the quality of distribution, and attempt to work out whether Grimshaw marks an upgrade on what Argyle previously had on the books.
Pass success may feel like a natural place to start. And the initial numbers here are encouraging. Last season, Grimshaw posted a pass success of 63%. That was enough to rank him higher than both of Argyle’s ‘keepers from last season, with Hazard succeeding with 61% of his passes and Cooper actually back in third with 58%.
However, simply looking at pass success doesn’t tell the full story. Particularly for goalkeepers, it’s usually more reflective of the team’s style, with ‘keepers in possession-hungry sides able to rack up the successful passes playing out from the back. It’s probably why Hazard posted a slightly better figure than Cooper last year – he was the ‘keeper for the majority of Ian Foster’s tenure, when passing the ball out from goal kicks was standard practice.
For that reason, I think it’s better to look at long passes. And there are two things I notice immediately. For one, Grimshaw completes a significant number; last season he made an average of 8.93 long passes per 90 minutes, comfortably more than both Cooper (5.37) and Hazard (5.04). He also completed them with a success rate significantly higher than Argyle’s pair of goalkeepers.
For Grimshaw, this is the key differential. It’s very difficult to upgrade on Cooper across a variety of attributes, but distribution (and particularly long distribution) may just be one of them. Grimshaw has been one of the EFL’s better ball-playing goalkeepers in recent years, and if he can provide a level of skill with the ball at his feet that we haven’t necessarily seen from Argyle goalkeepers recently, he’ll win plenty of supporters.
Commanding the penalty area
We often talk about “command” with regards to goalkeepers, but it can be a wishy-washy phrase with multiple definitions. We could be talking in the literal sense as to how they command their defenders around, we could mean how they take command of their penalty area by dealing with crosses, or we could talk about their commanding presence when dealing with counter attacks by acting as a sweeper.
Again, some of these are more difficult to assess than others. Without watching him play every week, it’s impossible to know how well he organises the defence; there is no official decibel counter to measure how loud goalkeepers are being, and if there ever was it’d probably have been broken by Luke McCormick. The confidence defenders have in their goalkeeper will only come with experience, and we’ll simply have to wait and see how Grimshaw asserts his authority.
It’s also not necessarily easy to assess how successful a goalkeeper is at sweeping up behind his defence. I could, for example, tell you that Grimshaw completed just 0.67 clearances per 90 last season, a lower figure than Hazard (0.81) and particularly Cooper (1.32). However, that doesn’t tell the full story; knowing what we do about his ball-playing capabilities, Grimshaw may have completed fewer clearances because he’s calmer on the ball, and picks a pass rather than whacking the ball away. Again, we’ll have to learn as we watch.
It's a different story when looking at crosses. There are plenty of numbers we can assess when looking at how goalkeepers deal with balls coming into their box, and this is where Grimshaw’s stats are a little more troubling.
Last season, he made 0.22 high claims per 90. That’s significantly less than both Cooper, and also falls behind Hazard, for whom claiming crosses is seen as a notable weakness.
It’s also not as if Grimshaw is dealing with crosses by punching them away rather than making a high claim, as we’ve seen a lot from Hazard at the start of this season. Last year, Grimshaw again posted a lower punches per 90 figure than both Cooper and Hazard.
We can caveat this slightly. Blackpool finished just outside the play-offs last season, whilst Argyle were in a relegation battle. It therefore stands to reason that Argyle’s goalkeepers would have faced crosses on a more regular basis. Still, I think this would explain a small difference, not the gaping chasm we see in these numbers.
This is a Grimshaw’s clear area for improvement. He’s shown enough to suggest he could almost be as good as Cooper when making saves, and could be clearly better than both Cooper and Hazard on the ball. If he can improve the way he deals with crosses he could turn out to be a roaring success, but right now it feels like a big ‘if.’
The total picture
Prefer your numbers in a visual format? I’ve got you covered.
If we take all the goalkeepers who played in the Championship in last season, add Grimshaw to the list and compare them across various criteria, we can compare two of them at a glance. For example, this chart looks at Grimshaw’s numbers compared to Hazard.
The story here is probably familiar. Grimshaw is a little better with his shot stopping, comfortably better with the ball and slightly worse dealing with crosses. It also demonstrates just how highly Grimshaw ranked last season for his long distribution compared to all goalkeepers.
There is also an eye-catching comparison we can make with Cooper.
More than anything, this demonstrates just how good Cooper was, as he ranks incredibly highly for shot stopping and dealing with crosses. Still, it does provide further evidence that Grimshaw’s distribution could be an upgrade – it makes me wonder just how much Cooper may have been worth if he was considered a ‘ball-playing’ goalkeeper along with his other strengths.
Grimshaw is not Cooper – I don’t think there’s anyone within Argyle’s budget who could match his numbers. It’s something as supporters we’d do well to remember. Grimshaw has strengths of his own, and I think there is enough evidence to suggest he’ll be an upgrade on Hazard if he settles in successfully. A little support could go a long way.
Musings on the deal
There was a sense when Grimshaw was announced as an Argyle player that a few were underwhelmed. And in a way I get that; Argyle were linked with many goalkeepers, and none were ever going to be loved quite as much as Cooper. I can understand the concerns, and hope this piece has at least gone some way to calming any initial fears.
I do also have a few thoughts on the transactions as a whole, because I don’t necessarily think Argyle have come out of the situation badly. Yes, the £2 million received for Cooper felt a little like a kick in the teeth. I tend to think Argyle have been short-changed, and I’m sure many more would have even stronger words. But the Grimshaw deal in isolation feels like smart business.
Let’s consider the bigger picture. Before any add-ons are considered (I don’t think it’s helpful to speculate on these before they actually come to light), Argyle have made a £1.4 million gross profit. For that, their goalkeeper is now slightly worse, but still strong, and there is a significant boost to the budget to boost other areas of the squad (hint if you’re reading Argyle – THE MIDFIELD). Given the unenviable situation, this is certainly one of the better possible outcomes.
Let’s also not forget Hazard’s recent performance. Against QPR he proved he’s still an incredibly talented shot stopper on his day by winning (and dropping) the player of the match award. He may well be pushed to further heights knowing he can genuinely compete for a starting spot. Whoever starts for Argyle may not be the best goalkeeper in the Championship, but they’ll have one of the best backup options either way.
As a whole, Argyle’s goalkeeper department last season was genuinely one of the best in the division. Even with Cooper leaving, Grimshaw’s arrival and Hazard’s presence honestly convinces me this could still be the case.