Preview: QPR vs Plymouth Argyle
Adam Price has his usual pre-match rundown of Saturday's game, which already feels like a crossroads.
One win, one draw, one defeat. On the face of it, Wayne Rooney’s start to life as Plymouth Argyle manager has been solid enough. Of course though, those results don’t even come close to telling the full story.
It’s probably more reasonable to categorise Rooney’s first couple of weeks in charge as “could do better” rather than “satisfactory.” Still, an encouraging performance in last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Hull City has allowed optimism to fester. Next up, it’s a trip to Loftus Road to face Queens Park Rangers, with Rooney and his side getting another opportunity to shape their own narrative.
This has the feeling of an early crossroads moment for the current regime. Win, and memories of the opening day hammering at Sheffield Wednesday will be long forgotten. Lose, and it’s just the one point from a possible nine available, with an unpleasant set of fixtures just around the corner. No result at this stage of the season will be decisive, but much of the early mood music surrounding Argyle will be dictated by the outcome of Saturday lunchtime’s game.
Argyle were in a battle with QPR for much of last season, and for a while it looked as though Rangers would struggle to beat the drop. The appointment of Marti Cifuentes eventually proved to be a masterstroke; he took QPR to survival relatively comfortably (six points from the drop zone in the end), as Argyle were made to scrap for their Championship life on the final day.
With Cifuentes coming off the back of his first pre-season in charge at Loftus Road, optimism levels are high. What can his side offer?
Style of play
Cifuentes’ arrival led to a significant improvement in the technical aspects of QPR’s game. He’s not a stereotypically Spanish “possession hungry” manager, but his side were more comfortable on the ball under his training methods. Last season QPR’s average possession was 50% under Cifuentes, compared to 38% before his arrival. To do that with a side constructed by Gareth Ainsworth is frankly remarkable.
To implement his style, Cifuentes likes to line up with a 4-2-3-1. And immediately, this feels like it may suit Argyle. Not only does it negate the “extra man in midfield” problem we saw Sheffield Wednesday and Barry Bannan take advantage of so ruthlessly, it also puts serious responsibility on the ‘number 10’ to be the creative force. There, QPR have selection difficulties.
Usually, you’d expect to see one of Ilias Chair and Lucas Andersen take the position. However, Andersen is an injury doubt having gone off prematurely against Sheffield United last weekend, and Chair is also unavailable. He’s officially injured too, and I’m sure it’s a complete coincidence that the injury flared up at around the same time he was sentenced to 150 hours of community service in Belgium.
With the above in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a makeshift QPR attack. That would include Karamoko Dembele, probably more comfortable on the wing, taking up the number 10 position. That would see Paul Smyth and Koki Saito on the flanks, the latter of whom would be making his full debut after getting an assist from the bench against Sheffield United.
The centre forward position also isn’t exactly nailed down. Zan Celar played there in QPR’s season opener against West Bromwich Albion, whilst Michael Frey was given the nod at Brammall Lane. Neither scored, but Cifuentes does have a striker on the books who has notched a league goal this season: Lyndon Dykes. The Scottish forward emerged from the bench against Sheffield United to score a dramatic late equaliser. He’ll probably play if he’s fit, but given he’s coming back from the same injury that kept him out of Euro 2024, it remains to be seen whether he’s ready to start.
And there are more selection issues further back, with a far from settled central midfield duo. I expect QPR will use the final week of the transfer window to make another signing in this area, particularly after Isaac Hayden’s success in the position on loan last season. As things stand though, Cifuentes has a conundrum.
Sam Field is a near-certain starter, having played the full 90 in both league games thus far. Jack Colback, however, is unavailable following a brainless red card against Sheffield United. That may force them to start Jonathan Varane, who didn’t exactly impress in the same game and was hauled off at half time. The only other option would probably be Elijah Dixon-Bonner, who hasn’t played a single minute of league action so far this season.
QPR do at least boast a settled defence, with the back four and goalkeeper remaining unchanged across their first two league games. Kenneth Paal has been on the left, with Jimmy Dunne on the right and a central defensive partnership of Steve Cook and Jake Clarke-Salter. Paul Nardi, arriving from Belgian side Gent this summer to replace Asmir Begovic, should continue in goal.
Given he’s almost exclusively used it since arriving at Loftus Road in October, I think it’s highly unlikely that Cifuentes will deviate from his 4-2-3-1. He clearly believes, as many have over the years, that it provides a sufficient defensive structure whilst leaving enough attacking players on the field to be a threat. For much of last season, he was proved correct.
Still, the squad as it stands isn’t perfectly formed to get the best out of the shape. For various reasons, Cifuentes has some tricky selection decisions on his hands. If he gets them right, his side will probably be well placed to win the game, but it’s quite the responsibility.
Strengths
In normal circumstances, Ilias Chair would have been the obvious choice. He’s so often been the player to make Rangers tick, able to match his creativity with a glorious knack of being able to score a goal from nothing. His absence, however long it may prove to be, will be sorely felt.
Still, I think there’s still enough in this QPR side to make up for his loss. Perhaps not via any individuals (frankly, there are none as good as Chair available), but certainly by committee. Under Cifuentes, arguably the main strength of the side is that they tend to be greater than the sum of their parts.
Some of the early numbers this season provide an indication. Of course, we’ve only had two league games thus far, and it’s far too early to conclude from those numbers what a team’s style, or strengths, will be. Still, contextualised and compared with last season’s numbers, they can provide an interesting insight.
For example, consider that QPR have faced West Brom and Sheffield United in their opening two games. They’re two sides many expect to be challenging for promotion, with the former in particularly considered a superb defensive unit. Despite that, QPR have pushed forward well against both. They’ve had 21 corners to their opponents’ 7, and had 55 touches in the opposition penalty area – only three sides in the league have had more at this early stage. It’s too soon to say this will be a trend, but it shows they’re willing to go toe to toe with any opponents this year.
Those attacks will also be exciting to watch, and probably go a long way to explaining why Cifuentes is loved so much by Rangers supporters, particularly with the contrast to the agricultural style of his predecessor Ainsworth.
QPR’s attack will look to take advantage of space with counter attacks and dribbling. Last season they had 27 shots resulting from fast breaks, with only five sides having more – not bad for a side managed by Ainsworth for a significant minority of the campaign. Their dribbling was even more eye-catching; at 52%, they had the best dribble success in the league last year.
Whilst a large proportion of those dribbles were completed by the absent Chair, there are still players in the squad who can fill that running void. Full backs Paal and Dunne have both demonstrated an ability to beat their man in attack, whilst Smyth has shown early signs that he too is keen on running at defences more often this season.
That’s a problem for Argyle, with the was Rangers attack almost feeling tailor-made to take advantage of the Greens’ shape. Turning over the ball and running with it will put the likes of Adam Forshaw under severe pressure, and that in turn could easily lead to the Argyle defence being exposed. A plethora of chances could easily fall the way of the hosts.
Ultimately, Cifuentes took charge of a side that looked destined for relegation and got straight to work. He first got them playing much more coherently, before starting to implement his style across two transfer windows. Their attack is an example of that coherence. Without Chair this isn’t a side filled with stars, but collectively they have the ability to put many defences to the sword.
At its best, it could well prove too much for Argyle.
Weaknesses
Given they’ve already shipped five goals this season, the QPR defence would seem to be the natural place to start. The back line hasn’t functioned nearly as well as Cifuentes would have liked, and it’s been a clear cause of their deficient goals against column.
That may seem surprising. After all, as I mentioned earlier, the defence is currently the only settled area of the side. So settled, in fact, that each of the four defenders likely to start were at the club last season. And it’s not like they had a terrible campaign together. Yes, QPR were in a relegation battle, but their total of 58 goals conceded was fewer than any side to finish below them, and a few who finished higher up the table.
So what’s been going wrong this year? Well, first of all, let me show you a few examples. On the opening day, Josh Maja scored a hat trick for West Brom at Loftus Road, and his third goal saw some particularly ugly defending. An innocuous throw-in situation very quickly turned into Maja finding himself in acres of space right in front of goal.
There’s another example from the Sheffield United game. This one isn’t quite as bad, because the Blades did break quickly, but look how easily Kieffer Moore loses Clarke-Salter in the penalty area to again find ample space for a tap in.
Watching those goals, and looking at QPR’s numbers, I’m beginning to get the impression that all of Argyle’s strikers could have joy against the Rangers defence. They’ve already conceded two headed goals this season, which could suit Muhamed Tijani. Ryan Hardie could do to Cook what he did so famously to Shane Duffy against Norwich City last year. Even Ben Waine could fancy his chances, with his movement and goal poaching a real weapon against such a back line. Michael Obafemi? Who knows?
With a cursory glance at the numbers, I get the impression that QPR aren’t completing enough “front foot” defending, and are therefore allowing situations to become more dangerous than they would have been had they attempted to deal with the issue at source.
See, Argyle and QPR have conceded the same number of goals in the league this season. For their part, Argyle have completed a substantial number of defensive actions across their two games, as you’d expect for a team under such significant pressure. Brendan Galloway, for example, has completed more defensive actions than any other player in the league. QPR simply haven’t defended with the same urgency.
We can investigate this further by looking at possession-adjusted defensive actions. There are a few ways to do this, and I’ve looked at defensive actions per 1000 opposition touches. When narrowing down to players who have started at least one of the two games, Argyle have five players in the top ten for this metric, with Cook the highest-ranked QPR player at 32nd. He’s also the only Rangers player to make the top 50.
I will once more reiterate that it’s far too early to draw firm conclusions. There’s no guarantee based on these numbers that QPR will defend hesitantly all season. At the moment though, they are, and Argyle will look to take advantage.
I’ll also just refer back to something I mentioned earlier on: Cifuentes’ selection dilemma makes this a good time to play QPR. I suspect they’ll be active in the final week of the window, and Chair’s eventual return will make them exponentially stronger. But as things stand, they’re unsettled, their squad is arguably weaker than the one with which they ended last season, and absentees create certain holes in a usually secure shape.
Rangers are strong, and I expect they’ll steer comfortably clear of relegation this season. Right now though, failing to pick up at least a point against them may be seen as a missed opportunity.
Prediction
Strengths in attack and weaknesses in defence. You may assume I’m going to predict another high-scoring game having gone for 3-2 against Hull last week. Not this time though; for all the flaws, Cifuentes’ sides tend to function effectively, and I don’t see them in the same ‘ticking time bomb’ mould as Tim Walter’s Tigers.
I also can’t see this being a Sheffield Wednesday style pummelling. Yes, QPR under Cifuentes have had a strikingly similar trajectory to the Owls under Danny Rohl, but their 4-2-3-1 shouldn’t be quite as lethal against Rooney’s style. I’d certainly be extremely disappointed if Argyle rolled over again this weekend.
Overall, I think both sides will create openings. I expect Argyle will score, but ultimately I suspect home advantage and a more refined style will be enough to see Rangers over the line. 2-1 QPR.