Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough

After a positive but ultimately fruitless display in Sheffield, attentions turn back to Home Park.

Another week down, and it’s been one that I imagine will have seen people further entrenched in their positions. Those unhappy with the current regime will point to the fact that defeats to Swansea City and Sheffield United mean it’s four losses on the bounce, with Plymouth Argyle only winning one of their last 11. Meanwhile, those who are keen to give head coach Wayne Rooney more time will point to improved performances, particularly at Bramall Lane, to support their position. In short, few opinions will have changed.

Of course, many views will sit somewhere in the middle. I’ve made no secret of my reservations about Rooney’s long-term future, but I couldn’t help but be encouraged by Argyle’s display against Sheffield United. It was by far the Greens’ best away performance of the season, and I truly believe they were unlucky not to secure at least a point. Ultimately though, it was still a defeat, and how we view that game in the long run will depend on how Argyle perform over the forthcoming Christmas period.

The first test of that period comes on Saturday afternoon, and it promises to be tough. Middlesbrough are the visitors to Home Park, and they seem to be finally realising their potential under Michael Carrick. Sure, Argyle took four points from their games against his side last season, but I have a feeling this will be the hardest test they’ve had against Boro since winning promotion back to the Championship.

Sitting sixth, Middlesbrough fans will be hoping this is a promotion season. They’ll see this as the classic “sort of game that needs to be won” in order to achieve their aims. Let’s take our customary look at what they may offer.

Style of play

When I look at Middlesbrough’s style, I primarily see it as an upgrade on what we saw from Swansea, the last visitors to Home Park. Like Luke Williams, Carrick puts a lot of value on possession. His team rank third for touches, passes attempted and passes completed this season, and second for pass success. Unlike Swansea, however, Middlesbrough have significantly more cutting edge to their play.

To put his ideas into motion, Carrick has exclusively deployed a 4-2-3-1 this season. That “3” just behind the lone striker has enough creativity to be the envy of practically every other side in the league. Delano Burgzorg and Ben Doak arrived at the Riverside over the summer, the latter on loan from Liverpool, and they’re likely to start on the flanks. In between them is Irish international Finn Azaz, who a few of you may have heard of in the past.

Both wingers love to cut inside, and it’ll be their responsibility to run at the Argyle defence – only two teams in the Championship have attempted more dribbles than Middlesbrough this season. Meanwhile, Azaz will take on his familiar creative role. He’ll have the responsibility of finding the aforementioned wingers in dangerous positions, as well as setting up chances for the striker. That striker, on current form, is likely to be Emmanuel Latte Lath, though Tommy Conway is no stranger to the centre forward position.

All of the front three like to play on the shoulder of the last defender. It doesn’t always work; Middlesbrough have been caught offside 48 times this season, with only Leeds (49) and Luton Town (51) posting a higher number. It’s such a threatening tactic though that it may only need to work once to be effective. Through balls, primarily from the boot of Azaz, will be paramount to Middlesbrough’s success.

Any 4-2-3-1 requires two dynamic midfielders. That’s certainly the case for Hayden Hackney, a talented 22-year-old who is back in the side after a recent minor knock. His most likely partner in midfield is Daniel Barlaser, but he’s far from the only option – 36-year-old Jonny Howson has featured (mainly in Hackney’s absence, it should be said), and he can bring some experience to the central area.

At the back, there have been three regular starters: left back Neto Borges, centre back and Ipswich Town loanee George Edmundson, and goalkeeper Seny Dieng, though the latter’s place is at risk after struggling for form. The other positions are a little more up in the air. Right back would usually be a straight fight between Luke Ayling and Anfernee Dijksteel, but Ayling’s injury against Millwall last time out makes him a serious doubt. Meanwhile, any one of Rav van Den Berg, Matt Clarke and Dael Fry could partner Edmundson at centre back.

Middlesbrough are dangerous. I’ll paraphrase what I said earlier, that they answer the question “what if Swansea City had more end product?” Given Swansea have recently won at Home Park, that’s enough to raise more than a few alarm bells. Boro are likely to dominate the ball, and their work in possession should generate a significant number of chances. They are not a team to be taken lightly.

Strengths

Broken down to its basics, the role of a head coach is to ensure his side creates goalscoring chances, whilst limiting the number of goalscoring chances for the opposition. In that regard, Carrick has been a roaring success. Between both boxes, there are few (if any) teams in the league better than Boro.

Shooting numbers are an easy place to start. This season, Middlesbrough have taken a total of 316 shots, which ranks them second in the league. At the other end, they’ve faced a total of 189 shots, the 23^rd-highest number in the league. In both cases, only Leeds United can boast a better record.

Encouragingly for Carrick, those shots are being taken from dangerous positions. With 672, they’ve had more touches in the opposition penalty area than any other side, and by quite a large margin. That demonstrates that they’re regularly getting themselves into troubling areas, and that’s unsurprisingly reflected in their xG. In fact, their total of 35.84 xG across the season is again the second-highest figure in the league. Meanwhile, at the other end, only five teams have posted a better figure than Boro’s 20.46.

All of the above numbers are reflected in the Championship’s expected points table. This season, we have Carrick’s side sitting on 39.14 expected points, with Leeds once again the only side to have a higher number. This xG-based “justice league” isn’t foolproof, but it does demonstrate that Carrick’s side are exactly where they ought to be this season: in the promotion race.

The figures are a glowing endorsement for Carrick’s style of play. I’ve also been impressed though, arguably even more so, by his ability to mix things up when necessary. Sure, the formation itself is unlikely to change, and that can lead to some fans accusing Carrick of lacking a Plan B. However, the style of passing looks flexible, and gives another dimension to the Boro attack.

As I mentioned earlier, Middlesbrough value passing the ball short, and they’ll have a lot of possession this weekend. But when the situation dictates, they aren’t shy to go long, and they’re very good when the opt to play direct passes. Their long pass success this season sits at 47%, which is actually better than any other team in the division. Based on what we know about Boro’s through balls, we can assume a number of those long passes are into the channels for their forwards to chase – I imagine Ryan Hardie would have a field day playing under Carrick.

Indeed, many individuals are thriving in Carrick’s system this year. Doak is the first we ought to mention. He’s underperforming against his xG, and will be disappointed not to have posted even better goal contribution numbers. But his creativity has been superb.

Doak’s total of five assists is bettered by only two players in the league, both of whom have comfortably played more minutes. It’s a similar story with key passes; Doak’s total of 35 is beaten by only four other Championship players, all but one whom (Luton’s Alfie Doughty) have played more minutes. And it’s dribbling where Doak excels the most – of all players to have played as many minutes as the 19-year-old, only Burnley’s Luca Koleosho has completed more dribbles per 90.

There is another to mention, and once again it’s the one I’ve been avoiding for much of this piece. After playing Michael Cooper’s Sheffield United last week, Argyle will once again face a player they’ve dearly missed since their departure. This time, it’s Azaz.

I don’t need to tell you about his style, nor do I need to remind you of his talents, but I will run over just how outstanding his numbers have been this year. Remember how I mentioned how few players beat Doak for assists and key passes? Azaz does, and in fact he beats every other player in the league in both metrics. Oh, and he’s not just a creative threat. He ranks in the top ten for goals scored, and has taken more shots than all but one player in the league.

Stop Azaz and you stop Middlesbrough? Not necessarily, but it’d definitely help.

Weaknesses

I have spent the majority of this piece waxing lyrical about Middlesbrough’s talents. And given their individual quality and eye-catching style of play, I don’t think any of that has been unfair. However, an elephant remains in this room; whilst Boro are well in the play-off picture this season, they’re still eight points away from the top two. Why haven’t they been able (at the moment anyway) to break into the automatic promotion hunt?

Well, I don’t think it’s the main cause, but I just want to mention their attack. As I covered in the last section, Boro have posted a total xG figure of 35.84, more than anyone in the league bar Leeds. But with 35, they only rank third for total goals. Not a huge difference by any stretch of the imagination, but a particularly clinical striker would have them performing at a higher level.

One therefore must point the finger towards Latte Lath. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s incredibly talented, and he’s recently started to look as though he’s starting to reach his potential. However, he’s been particularly wasteful in front of goal since joining last summer. Only five players missed more big chances last season than Latte Lath’s 16. And, as the below chart shows, he’s only just started to perform to his xG during this campaign. Argyle may have to bank on him having an off day, but it’s far from impossible.

In the main though, I think most of Middlesbrough’s shortcomings come further back. As I hope I’ve outlined, I don’t think they have many notable individual weaknesses, but as a team Boro make far too many mistakes.

Across the current campaign, only three sides have scored more own goals than Middlesbrough’s two. Carrick’s side have also made eight mistakes leading directly to shots this season, and six leading directly to goals. That total of 14 notable mistakes is a higher figure than any other side in the league.

The message therefore must be simple: press. Against Sheffield United, Argyle finally showed signs of a coherent press, and that simply must be an element that’s carried forward into this encounter. I suspect Middlesbrough will have plenty of the ball, but they’ve shown more than a few signs this season that they can be pressured into mistakes. Press successfully, and Argyle could find the way to unlocking the Boro door.

And I’ve got one final request to send Argyle’s way: when you do win possession high up the field, please don’t be afraid to shoot. Because ever since he signed for Boro in the summer of 2023, I haven’t been convinced by goalkeeper Seny Dieng.

Regular readers of this piece will now know I’m about to go on for longer than is reasonable about post-shot xG. This season, Dieng has conceded 21 goals from a post-shot xG figure of 16.65, resulting in a goals prevented figure of -4.35 and a prevented rate of 0.79. Of those to have played the majority of their team’s games this season, only Norwich City’s Angus Gunn has posted a worse figure. It’s not as if this is an off-year for Dieng either – last season he was regularly amongst the league’s underperformers, and ended with a goals prevented figure of -2.60.

Remember last week when I mentioned that teams had trouble converting chances against Sheffield United, and Cooper’s excellence in goal had a part to play? It’s the opposite at Boro. 52% of the big chances against Middlesbrough this season have been scored, one of the highest such figures in the league.

Dieng’s form has been so poor that he was dropped in favour of backup Sol Brynn. Whether that’s meant as a rocket up Dieng’s backside, or a more permanent change, remains to be seen. There isn’t as much data in place to pass a reasonable judgement on Brynn but,if Boro rated him in the first place, he surely wouldn’t have played second fiddle to Dieng for so long, right?

Argyle may not have too many chances on Saturday, but I have plenty of reason to believe they can be clinical with those they do create.

Prediction

Predicting Plymouth Argyle recently has become somewhat of a fool’s errand. Winnable games have come and gone with insipid performances at best, whilst the most difficult game of the current run saw arguably Argyle’s best display of the season, and without question the best away from home.

My hope, and no doubt the hope of us all, is that this level of performance will continue. If it does, there’s every chance points can be picked up in the coming weeks that may have seemed beyond Argyle just a few days ago. That could also include Boro; if I’m honest, my instinct is that Carrick’s side will have just too much for the Pilgrims, but I at least now believe Argyle will put up a fight.

2-1 Middlesbrough, but with the hope that things could easily fall the other way.