Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Swansea
Argyle return to action after a ten day break. Adam Price looks ahead to a high pressure game.
I can’t imagine Plymouth Argyle took too much convincing to postpone their game with Oxford United on Saturday. Storm Darragh ensured that Argyle will host their likely relegation rivals later in the campaign, when injured players are likely to have returned and new blood may well have been added to the squad. In the main, it’s an obvious stroke of luck.
The flip side of that good fortune is that it does create some additional pressure for the next fixture. Without playing, Argyle fell into the relegation zone over the weekend. Paired with some appalling results away from home before the Oxford postponement, it’s been a while since the Green Army had something to celebrate on the pitch. The visit of Swansea City on Tuesday night comes at a crucial time.
For a while, Swansea were in the relegation battle alongside Argyle last season. The Greens’ first away win of the campaign came at the Liberty Stadium, which temporarily dragged the Swans into the mire. They pulled away under new manager Luke Williams, who was appointed on exactly the same day as Argyle hired Ian Foster, and have had a steady campaign to date this time around.
It’s six wins, six draws and seven defeats, with Swansea sitting seven points away from the play-offs and seven points clear of the relegation zone. They look like mid-table certainties, but a win in the Westcountry on Tuesday could help to springboard them up the league. What can we expect them to offer?
Style of play
Swansea’s general style could be described as “neat and tidy” by some, and “mind-numbingly boring” by others. Throughout this piece, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions as to which camp is more accurate.
The first thing to note is that keeping possession is paramount in a Williams team. Their average possession for the season thus far is 61%, which is a number only beaten by Leeds United (63%). And when Swansea met Leeds a few weeks ago, Williams’ side had the lion’s share of the ball, posting a possession figure of 57%.
Keeping hold of the ball for long periods, even when it’s not in dangerous areas, can lead to some fairly low-scoring games. The 4-3 defeat to Leeds made headlines, but is very much an exception to the rule in Swansea’s season. They’ve scored 19 goals, with only five teams scoring fewer, but Swansea still sit on a positive goal difference with only 18 shipped across the campaign.
Those numbers are unlikely to leave Williams perturbed. As I mentioned, he’s made good progress since joining in January, and there are no indications that he’ll divert from his usual philosophy ahead of the busy Christmas period. And across the campaign, he’s almost exclusively utilised a 4-2-3-1 to achieve his aims.
With 21, Swansea have used fewer players than any other team in the league. As such, their lineup should be more predictable than most Argyle will face across the campaign. Lawrence Vigouroux, a summer arrival from Burnley, has been an ever present in goal, and he’ll be protected by an excellently settled defensive partnership of Ben Cabango and Harry Darling. Josh Tymon, who has completed a significant number of crosses this season, lines up on the left with Josh Key, scorer of Swansea’s third in this fixture last year, on the right.
For a team with Swansea’s philosophy, it won’t come as a surprise that they prioritise having tidy passers of the ball in midfield. Matt Grimes, who first signed for the Swans almost ten years ago, is the one near-certain starter in this area. His partner is likely to be one of Joe Allen, still going strong at the age of 34, or Goncalo Franco, a summer arrival from Portuguese side Moreirense.
Up front, there appears to be a straight choice between Zan Vipotnik and Liam Cullen, both of whom are perfectly comfortable leading the line. Should Vipotnik start, which I imagine is more likely, we could see Cullen drop back into the attacking midfield position. Ollie Cooper, scorer of Swansea’s second at Home Park last term, would usually be another option as the ‘number 10,’ but he’s a long-term injury absentee.
Out wide we can expect to see Ronald. He actually made his full debut for Swansea against Argyle in February, and is a key creative addition to Williams’s side. On the opposite flank, Myles Peart-Harris has hit the ground running since joining on loan from Brentford, and is a likely starter. Academy graduate Azeem Abdulai could offer some flair from the bench.
In terms of lineup and playing style, Swansea aren’t full of surprises. Argyle ought to have had a fairly easy time preparing for the game, but are likely to face an age-old problem: knowing what’s coming is one thing, but stopping it is quite another.
Strengths
The “Swansea way” is derided in some quarters, and I don’t blame those who like to have a dig. They are a club who take pride in playing football the “right” way, but don’t exactly have the achievements to put them on the same level as the great footballing institutions. I’m not sure disciples of Ajax’s Total Football were quaking in their boots as Brendan Rodgers won promotion by keeping the ball on the floor.
However, I think praise must go to Williams for the way he has got his side to buy into his philosophy, which he’s certainly done more successfully than predecessor Michael Duff. Swansea absolutely like to keep the ball on the ground, and under their new manager they seem to be getting better at it all the time.
There are plenty of statistics I can throw in to demonstrate how well Swansea pass the ball, but it’s individual numbers that have caught my eye the most. Three Swans players – Darling, Cabango and Grimes – rank in the top 10 for total touches of the ball in the Championship. Adam Randell, the player to have had more touches than anyone in Argyle’s side, ranks 46th. All three have built up their numbers whilst maintaining a pass success of above 88%, with Grimes posting an outstanding 91%.
That’s significant. We can debate and pick holes in the style of play, but it’s clear that Swansea’s players have bought in to their manager’s philosophy. And compared to where they were at this stage last season, it’s hard to argue that it isn’t delivering the desired results.
Swansea’s work in transition has also impressed me, and it won’t shock you to know that a high press is very much on the agenda. They’ve won a total of 704 ground duels this season at an impressive success rate of 52%, with only Sunderland having won more. Interestingly, Argyle were leading this ranking before their game with Oxford was postponed, and they still win more ground duels per 90 minutes than anyone else in the league. The battle on the floor on Tuesday night could prove hugely significant.
When they’re not passing the ball, part of Swansea’s success on the ground has come through dribbling. The Swans have completed a total of 148 dribbles this season at a success rate of 48%, with only two teams having a better success rate in the league. And when it comes to those dribbles, it’s Ronald who is the star of the show.
The Brazilian, who clearly attended the Oscar and Fred school of Anglophone names, has been a livewire on the wing ever since signing permanently from his homeland in January. He leads Swansea’s ranks for dribbles attempted and completed, with only two players in the league having attempted more than his 83. No Swansea player has more assists, and he isn’t afraid to have a go at goal himself; with 28, he also leads Swansea’s ranks for the number of shots taken.
There are undoubtedly other dangers in Swansea’s side. Cullen has scored the most goals, and Peart-Harris could have had some serious numbers had he not hit the woodwork more than any other player in the league. Ronald is the enigma though, the true danger man. If he has a strong game, Argyle’s depleted defence could struggle to cope.
Weaknesses
Leeds are the only team in the league to have posted a higher average possession figure than Swansea. And when Leeds are on the ball, you always feel they’re a threat. Alas, that isn’t necessarily the case with the Swans. In the world of football, it can be easy to identify teams who keep possession for the sake of it and, when the style isn’t clicking, Swansea become that sort of team.
Let’s look at their shooting. For a team with so much possession, they rank a disappointing 19th for their total number of shots and 21st for shots on target. In the latter metric, they’re comfortably below Argyle. And to continue the comparison in the previous paragraph, Leeds have had more shots on target than any other team. Swansea simply aren’t having the number of shots they ought to be for a team who dominate the ball.
That issue is compounded when we consider the quality of Swansea’s shots. Their shot conversion rate this season sits at just 8%, which again ranks just 21st across the league as a whole. I praised Ronald in the previous section for the frequency of his shots, but he’s only scored once this term. Those numbers go a long way to explaining why Swansea rank amongst the league’s lowest scorers. They aren’t taking the number of shots they ought to, and the shots themselves tend to be low on quality.
At the other end, individual mistakes have been a thorn in Swansea’s side throughout the campaign. This was particularly apparent early in the season, and the fact they’ve dried up a little lately suggests Williams’ style of playing out from the back is becoming more familiar. The numbers are still significant though – with ten errors leading directly to shots and two leading directly to goals, Swansea have made 12 notable defensive mistakes this season. Nobody in the league has made more.
Naturally, Argyle should be looking to take advantage of this deficiency. Wayne Rooney ought to know all about Swansea’s style, and a high press of their own could reap rewards for the Greens. It’s the sort of game where Argyle could benefit from Ryan Hardie starting for his work out of possession. I also wouldn’t mind seeing Callum Wright make an appearance, even if it is just as a substitute.
There are two more areas to cover, and Argyle should be looking at both with interest. This season, Swansea have appeared weak in the air, and weak in the tackle.
We’ll start with their aerial deficiencies. Swansea may be strong in ground duels, but it’s the total opposite in the air. Their aerial duel success rate this season sits at 40%, ranking them 23rd across the division. The only team to have posted a worse record? Argyle themselves, with an aerial duel success rate of 39%.
Those numbers may suggest that both teams would prefer to keep the ball on the floor, and if conditions allow that’s exactly what I expect to see. However, this may be a rare occasion where it may suit Argyle for the game to get a little scrappy. As they did in Derby, it could make sense to start Mustapha Bundu with a view to adding more physicality to the attack.
As for tackling, Swansea again rank poorly. Having made a total of 296 tackles, and having been collectively dribbled past on 136 occasions, Swansea have an implied tackle success of 69%. Only three teams in the league have posted a worse figure.
It’s testament to the level of Argyle’s injury crisis that I’d usually say this game could suit Ibrahim Cissoko and Morgan Whittaker, both of whom miss out. Still, Argyle do have a few weapons up their sleeve to exploit this weakness. Freddie Issaka may be keen to start, and runs from left back by Bali Mumba could be vital to unlocking the Swansea door.
Prediction
On occasions like this, I’m usually relaxed, because ultimately something surely has to give. Either Argyle will perform well, get the points they need, and ease the pressure heading into the Christmas period. Or, Argyle perform poorly, lose again and…well, the method for improving results would feel an awful lot clearer.
I had similar feelings when Argyle travelled to Blackburn Rovers under Ian Foster. Ultimately, a draw at Ewood Park ensured the standoff continued for at least another week. Given the respective strengths and weaknesses of Argyle and Swansea, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a similar result on Tuesday night. 1-1.