Preview: Sheffield United vs Plymouth Argyle
The games come thick and fast, and for Argyle it seems the misery never stops. Adam Price previews the trip to Sheffield.
Blimey. Let’s try to get through this together, shall we?
Plymouth Argyle are a mess. Tuesday night’s 2-1 defeat at home to Swansea City pulled the Greens further into the mire, and only a late goal by Watford against Hull City prevented Argyle from sitting rock bottom of the Championship heading into this weekend. I’ve already made my thoughts clear about head coach Wayne Rooney’s position but, rightly or wrongly, he remains in his post for now.
Admittedly, I think Argyle would be up against it this Saturday whoever was in the dugout. The Pilgrims travel to Bramall Lane to take on Sheffield United who, contrary to Argyle’s fortunes, find themselves top of the league, a point clear of closest challengers Leeds United. That’s particularly remarkable when you consider that the Blades started the season with an FA-enforced two-point deduction. They’re unbeaten at home this season, having conceded just twice, and will see this game as the ideal opportunity to extend their lead at the top.
Football can be a strange game, and there would be no point in any of us travelling if there wasn’t the smallest hope, the tiniest sliver of faith, that Argyle could produce a shock. But this isn’t the sort of game you want at any time, let alone when you’re in the midst of an atrocious run of form. Let’s take a look at the team who are highly likely to remain top of the league this weekend.
Style of play
This is a Chris Wilder team. So, whilst Sheffield United may possess an abundance of quality players, some of whom are far too good for this level, we’re not likely to see the “modern day” passing football we saw from table toppers Leicester City last term. Sheffield United rank only 11th for possession, and direct passing will certainly be on the agenda. I still believe they’ll be able to dominate the ball against Argyle, but in a different way to the methods with which we’ve become familiar.
Wilder has deployed a few shapes to try and get his ideas across. Majorly, they involve a back four – he played a back three away to Leeds United, but a 2-0 defeat has seen that experiment parked for now. A classic 4-4-2 is an option, but more recently Wilder has preferred to line up with a 4-2-3-1.
Contrary to other teams using the same shape, Wilder’s 4-2-3-1 can be decidedly narrow going forward. That’s mainly due to deploying wingers who love to come inside. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi starts on the right and can be lethal on his left foot (the Blades have actually scored more left-footed goals than anyone this season, and Rak-Sakyi has played a leading role). Meanwhile Gus Hamer, traditionally a midfielder, has been lining up a lot from the left to make room for Callum O’Hare in the ‘number 10’ position.
This should mean Argyle don’t need to worry quite as much about crosses. It’s been a key weakness for Rooney’s side recently, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Wilder tried to exploit it a little, but it’s not his main method of attack. For the stats we have available (up to but not including the midweek fixtures), Sheffield United have attempted 265 crosses this season, with only two sides having attempted fewer.
If crosses are to be played more regularly, it’ll be the full backs who need to provide the width, particularly with Rak-Sakyi and Hamer favouring the centre. Harrison Burrows appears to have the left back position nailed down (though Sam McCallum could challenge), and right back appears to be a straight choice between Femi Seriki and Chelsea loanee Alfie Gilchrist.
There are decisions to make in the centre of the defence. Lately, captain Jack Robinson and Harry Souttar have formed a settled partnership, but Wilder has the option of shifting Gilchrist to the middle if he wants to use a more attacking right back option in Seriki. Bosnian defender Anel Ahmedhodzic, who hasn’t featured since receiving a straight red card against Coventry City, could also be in line to return. Whoever plays, they’ll be supported by…a goalkeeper behind them.
The one area of particular curiosity the centre of midfield. An injury to academy graduate Ollie Arblaster threatened to derail the Blades’ season, but Wilder brought together a strong partnership containing another youth product in Sydie Peck and the outstanding Vinicius Souza. However, Souza himself picked up an injury against Millwall in midweek, and looks almost certain to miss out. If he does, we could see a first competitive start since March for Tom Davies, who has recently returned from a series of injuries of his own.
This isn’t the first 4-2-3-1 we’ve looked at this season, and they tend to share similar traits. Dare I say Sheffield United’s is more at the boring end, with a “safety first” focus providing a platform for their attacking players. I suspect said attackers will have too much for Argyle, even if they aren’t firing on all cylinders.
Strengths
Wilder has built his team this season on the foundation of a successful defence. Only Burnley have conceded fewer goals this season than Sheffield United’s 11, and there are a few elements sticking out in the defensive numbers that have really caught my eye.
I’ll start by simply discussing defensive actions as a whole. Before the midweek fixtures are taken into account, Sheffield United had completed a total of 1,005 defensive actions. That’s enough to rank them fifth in the league. And, when we consider that in the context of the league table, that number starts to look even more impressive. When it comes to defensive actions, we obviously tend to see the teams who need to do a lot of defending posting higher numbers. That isn’t really reflective of the situation at Bramall Lane.
Indeed, the four teams to have posted higher numbers than the Blades this season are Derby County (1,035), Oxford United (1,038), Argyle themselves (1,041) and Queens Park Rangers (1,047), all of whom have struggled in various ways this season. Sheffield United are different. The fact they have posted such a number despite sitting top of the league inherently suggests their defending is competent, and demonstrates how well they defend on the front foot.
One way their defending does tend to reign supreme is in the air, and this is an element that is reflected across the field. This season, Sheffield United have posted an aerial duel success rate of 56%, a figure only beaten by Preston North End on 57%. Argyle’s success rate of 39% is now the worst in the league, suggesting the aerial battle could be a key differential. Many may expect Argyle to simply be outplayed on the floor when facing a team near the top of the Championship, but it could suit Wilder’s side to keep the ball in the air regularly.
Leicester loanee Souttar has been a key player in both the above metrics. Per 1,000 opposition touches, the Australian international centre back has completed 13.71 defensive actions. Only three players to have played as many minutes as Souttar in the Championship have completed more. Souttar is also a towering presence in the air – only ten players in the league have won more aerial duels than his 57, and none of them can beat his success rate of 79%. He’ll be a rock in the centre of the Blades’ defence this weekend.
There is another individual who has been key to the Blades’ defensive record, and it’s the one I’ve refrained from mentioning thus far. It doesn’t bring me any great pleasure to say this, but Sheffield United have an outstanding goalkeeper.
You don’t need me to tell you this, but Michael Cooper is arguably the best goalkeeper in the EFL. Having conceded nine goals from a post-shot xG of 12.97, Cooper has a prevented rate this season of 1.44. Burnley’s James Trafford has 1.45, and is the only Championship regular to top Cooper, but he’s nowhere near when it comes to crosses. Cooper’s total of 24 high claims this season is insanely good, and is comfortably clear of the chasing pack (three different ‘keepers sit joint-second with 17 each).
Naturally, Cooper is a huge factor in keeping the Blades’ goals against column so low. Remember earlier when I mentioned that Sheffield United have conceded just twice at home this season? Both goals came in a 2-2 draw with QPR, before Cooper made his first start. Adam Davies was in goal that day, and it means Cooper hasn’t conceded a single goal at home this season as we reach mid-December. It’s an offensively good record, and would anyone really bet against it continuing this weekend?
This section could go on and on. I could for example mention their dribbling, and explain how Rak-Sakyi’s flair will give whoever lines up at left back for Argyle nightmares. I could mention Hamer’s creativity, whilst outlining how his prowess from dead ball situations will trouble the Argyle back line as a whole. There are a whole plethora of attacking strengths too, but it’s on the defence that Wilder is ultimately aiming to build a promotion-winning side this year.
I’ll leave you with one final thought: no team has been in the lead this season more than Sheffield United. Meanwhile, Argyle have spent more time trailing than any other team in the league. No pressure lads.
Weaknesses
As I hope I’ve demonstrated, it isn’t easy to put this Sheffield United team under pressure. With such a strong defence, the best plan is probably to keep things tight at the other end and try to “smash and grab” a winner on the break. I’ll finally put my optimistic hat on in this piece and suggest that maybe, just maybe, Argyle could pull that off.
Sheffield United are a good side, and they’re not top of the league by accident. However, they have been known to struggle against teams who deploy a good low block. I often think back to the Steel City Derby a month ago, which may well have been one of the most boring games of the Championship season. United won, but their xG of 0.5 compared to Wednesday’s 0.39 suggests the game was abnormally tight, and the 1-0 scoreline could easily have gone the other way.
That’s not an isolated example. Sheffield United’s total xG this season sits at 25.27, which at the last count was only enough to rank them 11th in the league. With the right defensive set-up, that suggests they can be at least partially blunted. Including the encounter with Wednesday, the Blades have won six games this season by a scoreline of just 1-0. A win is a win, and Wilder won’t care how they come, but his side don’t tend to blow opponents away as we’ve seen with other title-challenging teams.
Argyle should take at least a crumb of comfort from those numbers. Against Leeds, Rooney lined up with practically every player in defence in an attempt to shut the hosts out. And whilst Argyle looked solid for half an hour, that was never likely to last against such a potent side. Sheffield United don’t have that sort of attack and, whilst I don’t want to see an identical tactic, a defensive formula could be enough to keep the Greens in the game.
On another note, I just want to touch on the Blades’ disciplinary record. In short, it isn’t good. With 45 yellow cards and two reds, Sheffield United are one of the naughtiest teams in the division. Only Preston, with three reds and an unholy 57 yellows, can claim to be a more ill-disciplined side in the Championship.
Now, for a single game that may seem completely insignificant, but these things can build up. With the busy Christmas period on the horizon, some players may be walking a tightrope with the prospect of a suspension looming. Get a few Blades players into the book early, run at them with the ball, and you never know. This game won’t be easy in any case, but you’d rather be facing ten men than 11.
Finally, I’ll leave with a word on the defence again. In most metrics, Sheffield United have one of the meanest defences in the league, and it’s not a coincidence that their goals against tally reflects this defensive competence. However, I do believe that clinical opponents could yet find joy against them as the season progresses.
Only three teams have conceded more corners than the Blades, so a good set piece team could fancy their chances of converting. That’s unlikely to apply to Argyle, but the Greens could be interested in the chance conversion numbers. Across the campaign, Sheffield United’s opponents have combined to have 25 big goalscoring chances. Six of those have been scored, meaning teams have a big chance conversion rate of 24% against Wilder’s side. That total is smaller against only three other teams, and suggests the Blades have been slightly fortunate.
Not all of that will be down to luck, and having a good goalkeeper in place certainly helps keep that conversion rate down. Still, Argyle have always been able to count on shot accuracy as a strength. They may not get many chances at Bramall Lane, but they simply must back themselves to put those they do get into the back of the net.
Prediction
Michael Cooper hasn’t conceded a goal at home all season. His ex-club Plymouth Argyle, arguably the worst travellers in the league, are the next visitors to Bramall Lane. Sod’s law dictates that Argyle simply must score a goal this weekend. Maybe Rooney’s side will even take the lead.
Alas, that’s probably as good as it’ll get for Argyle. I’m not going to predict one of the apocalyptic scorelines we’ve seen on social media over the last few days, although I certainly can’t rule one out; I absolutely think a generational thrashing is a more likely outcome than an Argyle victory. Ultimately, I’ve no doubt the hosts will control the game, and even if they face a scare they should have enough to emerge with a comfortable win. 3-1 Sheffield United.