Preview: Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle
Adam Price looks ahead to the Trip to Turf Moor, Argyle's first in over a decade.
Last time around, Plymouth Argyle put in their best performance of Wayne Rooney’s tenure. Isn’t it wonderful that we’ve been able to say that on multiple occasions in recent weeks?
Luton Town, a team who graced the Premier League last season, travelled down to Home Park and were outplayed. Argyle could have been ahead by any number at the interval, and they survived a brief fightback from the Hatters in the second period, eventually securing a 3-1 victory after two goals from super sub Ibrahim Cissoko. It was an incredible display, and adds credence to the theory that Rooney’s side are improving with every passing game.
If that continues, Argyle could give another relegated side a bloody nose on Tuesday. Under the stewardship of Scott Parker, Burnley have made a solid start and sit fourth, though they come into this encounter off the back of what they’ll see as a disappointing 0-0 draw with Oxford United. As it turns out, other results mean Burnley would have been top of the league going into their clash with Argyle had they beaten Oxford.
They have a good haul of points on the board, but Scott Parker’s Burnley have split opinion in the early stages of the campaign. Let’s explore what they may offer.
Style of play
You wouldn’t necessarily consider Burnley a “passing for the sake of it” side, but they are a team who are comfortable in possession. They’ll be patient to a point, but their main aim on the ball will be to get the ball out wide and run with it. They may not be successful every time, but up until the Oxford game Burnley had attempted the third-highest number of dribbles in the league.
They’re also not shy of taking a long-range shot; they’ve taken 42% of their shots from outside the box this season, a higher percentage than all but just two sides in the league. Incidentally, one of those is Argyle, so we may expect plenty of shots flying in from all angles on Tuesday.
(Nerdy note – feel free to ignore if you don’t care. Due to a few limitations with my data update, some of the numbers you see in this piece won’t include the fixtures from the weekend just gone. This is more likely to happen when games are in quick succession. One game won’t make too much difference to the narrative, and the problem will be lessened the more the season goes on, but it’s worth keeping in mind if you’re bothered by that sort of thing. Anyway, back to it…)
To implement his style, Parker has shown a preference for a 4-2-3-1 this season, having used it exclusively across the last five in all competitions. That’s the easy bit, but predicting who exactly will line up is trickier. You may remember for Argyle’s last away game I marvelled at West Bromwich Albion, who had picked the same starting 11 in every game before facing the Pilgrims. Burnley are the opposite, having used more players than any other team in the league.
The defence is probably the most settled area of the side, with left back Lucas Pires and centre back Maxime Esteve having started all seven league games. James Trafford is also highly likely to get the nod in goal ahead of Vaclav Hladky. The rest of the defence will probably depend on how Parker intends to use Bashir Humphreys and CJ Egan-Riley, both of whom can play in the centre or on the right of a back four. Right back Connor Roberts may also be welcomed back to the fold after missing the last three through injury.
In midfield we’ll find the third and final player to have started every league game: Josh Brownhill. His partner is likely to be a choice of two; summer signing from Stoke City Josh Laurent has seen his fair share of action, though Josh Cullen has been preferred recently. Whoever gets the nod in the deeper positions, I’d be very surprised if Hannibal Mejbri didn’t start in the advanced role. He’ll serve up plenty to chew on for the Argyle defence.
On the flanks, we’re likely to see Luca Koleosho line up on the right – he scored the winner against Leeds United at Elland Road on the same day Argyle got their first win of the season against Sunderland. Jaidon Anthony has featured regularly on the left, but Jeremy Sarmiento was preferred for the trip to Oxford having scored a superb goal to equalise against Portsmouth. Given Burnley drew a blank in Oxford, they may opt to shuffle their attacking pack again.
That could also include the central striker. Lyle Foster has been the most regular starter, but should he be fit Burnley could plump for Zian Flemming, who signed for the Clarets on a deadline day loan with an obligation to buy from Millwall. Clearly, it’s the transfer window modus operandi at Turf Moor. Veteran forward Jay Rodriguez provides another option, as does comparative spring chicken Andreas Hountondji.
I don’t envy Rooney and crew in preparing for this encounter. They may have the basis of Burnley’s shape to work with, but the number of possible starting combinations feels endless. And given this is the first midweek league game of the season, the level of rotation could be even higher.
Strengths
It’d be remiss of us not to mentioned Burnley’s prowess at finding the back of the net. Going into the weekend they were the top scorers in the league with 13 goals. Even though they were kept out by Oxford they’re still ranked third, just one goal behind both Sunderland and Lancashire rivals Blackburn Rovers.
I think there is a good level of composure running through this side that allows them to keep their heads in front of goal. For example, going into the weekend they’d posted a big chance conversion rate of 50%, one of the better figures across the division. That will have taken a slight hit after the Oxford game, where they had one big chance that was spurned by Hountondji, but their number will still be one of the Championship’s highest.
It's perhaps not a surprise, therefore, that Burnley are one of the league’s biggest xG overperformers. As I’ll regularly mention, that can be taken as a positive or a negative depending on your viewpoint, but their numbers will give the strikers an almighty boost. Before this weekend, Burnley had scored 13 goals from an xG of 4.95, a massive overperformance of 8.05. It’s another figure that will have taken a slight hit at the weekend after they scored none from 1.54 xG in Oxford, but they’ll still be right up there.
There are a few individuals we can touch upon who could be responsible for the overperformance. As we saw with Luton, teams being relegated from the Premier League tend to bring an awful lot of quality down with them. Burnley are no different.
Josh Brownhill is the first of those players. He’s played all but one minute of league action thus far, and as a deeper midfielder you may expect the defensive side of the game to be his strength. But it’s at the other end where he’s made himself known – he’s scored three goals thus far, and is one of only three players (along with Gus Hamer and Ollie Arblaster, both of Sheffield United) to score twice from outside the box. That includes a stoppage time winner against Portsmouth which seemed to find the net in slow motion.
I’m also keen to mention a few names of note further back. He hasn’t appeared in every game, but I’ve been impressed by Egan-Riley whenever he’s played. The 21-year-old returned to Burnley after a loan spell in PSV Eindhoven’s academy last season, and has shown defensive acumen. You may recall in the Luton preview piece I praised Reece Burke, who had made an impressive 16.07 defensive actions per 1000 opposition touches heading into the game. Thus far Egan-Riley has him beaten, sitting on 19.29.
Potential defensive partner Esteve has a separate positive impact on Burnley’s style. He’s been the key man in playing out from the back, and looks set to be a vital cog in Parker’s machine as the season progresses. Nobody in the league this season has completed more passes (381) at a better success rate (94%) than Esteve, and I suspect he’ll be resistant to Argyle’s press even with Ryan Hardie almost certain to start in the absence of Michael Obafemi.
I’ve mentioned a few players there; I also recognise that Burnley’s rotation means it could be the case that some sit out on this occasion. I’ll leave this section with a clear message though: Burnley have some strong individuals. As they did against Luton, Argyle will have to overcome a side full of talent to get a result.
Weaknesses
Had I been shown Burnley’s numbers without any prior context this season, I’d have concluded that they’re overperforming against their underlying data and will eventually drop down the league. And even in context, they may be a talented side who I expect to be competing at the top end of the Championship this season, but there’s no way they should be amongst the early pacesetters based on how they’re playing.
So far this season, they’ve made a habit of taking half-chances and scoring from range. In isolation, it’s a great habit to have – in the first half of last season Argyle practically made it their game plan to let Morgan Whittaker shoot from wherever he wanted – but it’s not something a team can reasonably expect to sustain. When the long shots stop flying in, the team’s total productivity suffers as a result.
With that in mind, Burnley’s xG numbers are shocking. I mentioned earlier that they’d created a total of 4.95 xG before their visit to Oxford. Their xG against in that time was actually even higher at 5.71, meaning they were sitting on a negative net xG (-0.76) before their previous game. That’s remarkable for a recently relegated side. Even Luton weren’t facing such a reverse before they were pummelled by Argyle on Friday night.
Why are Burnley’s numbers so deficient? Well, I will add a slight caveat in their favour regarding game state. Prior to Oxford, Burnley had been in the lead for 46% of their total minutes across the campaign, with only four sides having led for longer. When you’re ahead for so long, of course it’s more likely that your opponents will be pushing for an equaliser, and creating more xG as a result. But that would explain a slight difference between expected performance and actual performance; it’s far from the only reason for the gaping chasm we see with Burnley.
Generally speaking, I think they’ve got an issue with an unsettled squad. Remember earlier when I mentioned that Burnley have used more players than any team in the league? It’s actually by an almighty margin. Burnley have given minutes to 30 players in the league this season, with multiple sides sitting in second having used 25. Coventry City sit bottom of the list with 19 players used, meaning there is about as much difference between 24th and 2nd in this ranking as there is between 2nd and 1st.
That has led to cohesion in Burnley’s ranks being absent, and their patterns of play aren’t producing the required results. We saw as much in the Oxford game – Burnley did well to post a possession figure of 70%, but the fact they created just one big chance isn’t good enough for a team with their ambitions. The talent is there right now, but the chemistry simply isn’t.
I suspect poor squad planning has played a role here, or at least poor communication between the management and the board. Earlier on this season, Parker gave minutes to the likes of Wilson Odobert, Wout Weghorst and Zeki Amdouni, all of whom were very likely to leave by the end of the window (and indeed did leave). Sure, they’d have helped for those specific games, but would Burnley have been better served giving minutes to players they knew they’d keep to give them more time to gel? I certainly have some sympathy for that argument.
I’m under no illusions – the ability in Burnley’s ranks means they could click at any time, and it’s very possible that they’ll have too much for Argyle on Tuesday night. It is worth saying though that they present a very similar challenge to Luton. On Friday, Argyle beat a team with better talent on paper that hadn’t looked as cohesive as they’d expect. Who’s to say lightning won’t strike twice?
Prediction
Had this game been at Home Park, I genuinely think I’d have backed Argyle. The Greens’ performance against Luton in front of their own supporters was outstanding, and given Burnley pose a similar challenge on paper, there’s no reason why Argyle wouldn’t have gone two for two under the Home Park lights.
Given this is an away game, however, I’m much more torn. There’s a lot to like about the way Argyle are playing, but it’s worth remembering they’ve only won three away games since their return to the Championship. Therefore, my instinct is that Burnley’s best players will drag them over the line in front of their own supporters. I can definitely see a world where I’m wrong, but I’ll back the hosts to win 2-1.
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