Preview: West Brom vs Plymouth Argyle
Top of the league again? Adam Price previews the Baggies trip
Earlier this week, I was asked in a work meeting whether I’d fallen ill. I hadn’t, and pleasingly, I had it confirmed that the query wasn’t made because I looked particularly under the weather. Clearly I’d either scrubbed up well, or me having an unkempt appearance is so common to be unworthy of further comment. I invite you to keep your thoughts to yourself.
No, this question was put to me simply because I was sounding particularly hoarse. As soon as I explained this was a direct symptom of Plymouth Argyle’s dramatic first league win of the season, everyone seemed to understand. I mean, how dare they not know beforehand? Wayne Rooney’s Greens turning over then table-topping Sunderland ought to have been a cause of national celebration, particularly given the thrilling last-gasp manner of victory.
Argyle are in action again this weekend, and their reward for beating the team top of the league is…to play the team replacing them at the top of the league. I suppose nobody has ever claimed the Championship is easy. The Pilgrims travel to The Hawthorns to face a West Bromwich Albion side who have made a flying start to the campaign. They’re one of only three sides in the league to remain unbeaten, and have won four of their opening five fixtures, three of those triumphs coming away from home.
What can we expect from the Baggies? And do Argyle have it in them to produce a second shock in quick succession?
Style of play
West Brom are something of a rarity. In every league game this season, they’ve named exactly the same starting eleven. We may only be five games into the campaign, but it’s remarkable that the Baggies have been completely unchanged. Given how well it’s been working, I doubt manager Carlos Corberan will be inclined to make any changes for Argyle’s visit.
They’ve lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. A familiar face in Alex Palmer has been in goal, and he’ll be protected by a central defensive pairing of Kyle Bartley and Semi Ajayi. The defensive line is completed by Torbjorn Heggem on the left and Darnell Furlong on the right, whilst Jayson Molumby and Alex Mowatt act as the midfield double pivot.
Further forward, John Swift has been playing as a classic number 10. To his left will be Karlan Grant, who is back in favour having spent last season on loan at Cardiff City, and on the right we’ll see exciting 21-year-old academy graduate Tom Fellows. Josh Maja will lead the attack; he’s probably best known to many for his dramatic cameo in Sunderland 'Til I Die, but he’s started the season like a man possessed.
Corberan’s reluctance to change things doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll only see those 11 this weekend. Lewis Dobbin, for example, has emerged from the bench in every league game thus far, and the likes of Jed Wallace and Grady Diangana may be utilised similarly. West Brom also pulled off a massive coup on deadline to bring Mikey Johnston back to the club following a hugely successful loan spell last year. It may be from the bench, but he’ll probably have a part to play.
The numbers would suggest that Mowatt plays a vital role both in and out of possession. He’s had more touches, and completed more passes, than anyone else in West Brom’s side. He also leads the club’s ranks for both interceptions and tackles, suggesting his presence in the deep midfield positions acts as the glue between defence and attack. And he can top that importance off with goals. He scored two in a 3-0 win over Portsmouth last week, the second of which was a sumptuous stoppage time free kick.
Aside from scoring goals, he has an important job to find some of West Brom’s creative outlets with swift, incisive passing. Fellows in particular has been a beneficiary. He leads the club’s ranks for dribbles, key passes and completed crosses thus far, and already has four goal contributions to his name. He’ll surely add to that tally sooner rather than later.
And whoever is on the ball, direct passing is important. We always differentiate between old-fashioned long ball teams and those who are proficient with long passes, and West Brom are very much the latter. They only go long with 14% of their passes, which is around average, but with 134 they’ve actually completed more long passes than any other team in the league. Their 44% success rate with such passes is also healthy.
Expect plenty of long balls into the channels this weekend, particularly with Bali Mumba’s attacking runs from the left. Whoever lines up as Argyle’s left-sided midfielder will need to keep their concentration from minute one.
Strengths
We must talk about Maja. His 2023/24 campaign with the Baggies was fairly nondescript, and blighted by injury for large parts. This year though, he’s hit the ground running magnificently.
Aided by a hat-trick on opening day against Queens Park Rangers, Maja is currently the Championship’s top scorer with five goals. And whilst he may be overperforming, as you’d expect for a top scorer, Maja also leads the way on xG with 3.40 – second-placed Eliezer Mayenda of Sunderland is back on 2.93. Add in an assist for Molumby against Swansea, and Maja also leads the Championship’s goal contribution ranks with six.
Overall, Maja’s goals have been directly responsible for the Baggies picking up five points (another league high). And there seem to be two key skills at play: Maja’s ability to find pockets of space in the area, and the team’s ability to give him the ball. His third goal against QPR is a good example; look how Maja finds room in front of goal (admittedly with some slack defending), and finds himself in the right place at the right time to capitalise on the loose ball.
He did similar against what was then Steven Schumacher’s Stoke City, this time finding space between the centre backs before executing a lovely finish from the edge of the area.
See also the Portsmouth fixture. Fellows found Maja in acres of space in the opposition box once more to open the scoring…
…before he nearly nodded home at the back post after tearing away from his man again, denied only by Will Norris’ outstanding save.
Notice how many of these moves start on the right, with Maja looking to either cut across his man or find space at the back post to take advantage. Kornel Szucs, therefore, may be in for his toughest test yet, and the presence of Joe Edwards’ reading of the game on the right of Argyle’s defence could be vital.
Maja may be playing well, and is obviously a key part of West Brom’s attack, but I’ve actually been more impressed with the way Corberan’s side defend. They go into this weekend with the best defensive record in the league, having conceded just twice across their five games thus far. That won’t scare Argyle as such, given Sunderland had the best record before the Greens put three past them last week, but it’s the way West Brom defend that makes them a particularly fearsome prospect.
First of all, they get the defensive basics right, particularly in the air. Centre backs Bartley and Ajayi have won 65% and 67% of their aerial duels respectively; those numbers are more than decent. And whilst it isn’t so important for a full back, Furlong has them both beaten thus far with a 72% success rate. This isn’t the sort of game to be expecting some strong hold-up play from Ryan Hardie or Michael Obafemi.
If pushed, I think I’d consider Bartley to be the most impressive at the moment. He leads the way within West Brom’s ranks for clearances (26) and blocks (7) thus far, as indeed he does for his total number of defensive actions (39). He may be 33 now, but he’s demonstrating that he is still more than competent enough to shine in the second tier.
This is a key differential with Sunderland. The Black Cats left themselves open, but trusted that their energy and youthfulness to quickly cover areas of danger. West Brom, meanwhile, set up to be compact out of possession, trust their defenders to get the basics right, and usually get results. Think back to how they frustrated Argyle in their 3-0 win at Home Park back in February – they’re more than capable of doing so again.
I imagine a similar result this time around would go down just as well as it did during the Ian Foster era.
Weaknesses
For the second week in succession, I’ve been tasked with picking holes in the team sitting top of the league. Predictably, I’ve struggled on both occasions.
I’ve actually found this even more difficult for West Brom than I did with Sunderland. Last week, there were at least signs that Argyle could get at their opponents provided everything fell into place and they could get their runners into the game, which they did to devastating effect. However, West Brom don’t appear to have posted poor numbers in any metric at all so far this season.
Perhaps last season provides some indicators as to their weaknesses. When looking at those numbers, I begin to get the sense that West Brom’s compact defending can come back to bite them occasionally. Sure, it’s worked this year so far, but standing off opponents to defend your own box can mean you somewhat miss the boat defensively by failing to deal with issues at source.
For example, last season West Brom made fewer tackles (586) than any other team in the Championship. With 388, they also completed the second-lowest number of interceptions. And all of this was reflected in their ground duels, where they again won the second-lowest total number last season. The only team to win fewer was (say it with me) Rotherham United.
Now, some of those issues have been slightly ironed out by a minor squad refresh over the summer, and as I’ve mentioned this season’s numbers look a lot healthier. Still, last season’s sample size is far greater, and these aren’t scars that will have been totally removed over the summer. There may be some new personnel carrying out the instructions, but West Brom still defend in largely the same manner.
Corberan’s side are likely to stand off Argyle, waiting for the right moment to pounce before rapidly manoeuvring the ball to their creative threats. As numerous sides have found out, this can be deadly when it works well, but could this possibly suit Argyle? After all, not many teams get away with allowing Morgan Whittaker space to shoot from long range.
I imagine this will be part of Argyle’s game plan; if they can take the lead, they’ll be able to dictate the tempo of the game, allowing their own strengths in compact defending to come to the fore against a West Brom side who prefer to operate in wide open spaces. The league leaders will obviously start as favourites, but that could be the path to Argyle emerging with a positive result from the game.
That task becomes a little easier if your opponents are predictable, and right now West Brom may be the most predictable side in the division. Having a consistent, settled lineup brings plenty of benefits, but it does make it more straightforward to plan against. Considering Argyle have had five games of the same lineup to analyse…well, I’d be disappointed if the Greens’ hierarchy hadn’t done their homework.
Finally, let me just touch on the age of West Brom’s squad. Last week Argyle played a Sunderland slde that was comfortably the youngest team in the division. In the Baggies, they almost face the exact opposite. Weighted for minutes played, last season saw West Brom have the oldest squad in the division with an average age of 27.85.
It should be said that things on this front have improved slightly. Experienced campaigners such as Matt Phillips, Yann M’Vila and Erik Pieters were released over the summer, whilst Conor Townsend and Okay Yokuslu were sold. Still, the average age has only come down narrowly this year, currently sitting at 27.24, making West Brom the fifth-oldest squad in the league thus far. Corberan, being an incredibly talented coach, manages this well with his style of play, but I imagine it’s an issue he’d prefer to avoid.
That’ll encourage a generally youthful Argyle squad, and they should have confidence that they can run their opponents down. With a number of minutes already demanded from aging legs, one wonders how long West Brom can continue their excellent start. And after dispatching Sunderland last week, Argyle may just fancy dealing another blow to one of the early pacesetters.
Prediction
Last week’s performance was hugely encouraging. Knowing Rooney’s teams can play in such a manner makes the experience so much more enjoyable, and getting that first league victory will be a huge monkey off the back. I have to keep that in mind when considering what may happen when Argyle look to battle the league leaders again.
Despite the increased optimism, I still think that a home win is the most likely outcome. The Baggies are on a storming run, have a talented coach and squad, and in all likelihood will see this as a decent opportunity to get another win and clean sheets. Argyle will have their moments, but I imagine they’ll be edged out come full time. 2-0 West Brom.