Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Luton
Adam Price has his usual look at the upcoming game, as the TV cameras descend upon Home Park.
Having faced Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion after the first international break, Plymouth Argyle are now preparing for the visit of another side to have graced the Premier League in recent memory. Given the nature of the Championship, that won’t come as a surprise to anyone. The message is clear though: the tough fixtures are here, and they’ll be here for a while.
Luton Town are the latest visitors to Home Park. They were in the top flight more recently than any of the sides previously mentioned, having only been relegated last season. Given an impressive two years under the stewardship of Rob Edwards, an immediate return to the Premier League would have been the ambition. And it still may eventually, but a stuttering start has led to a few Hatters fans reassessing their hopes for the rest of the campaign.
Luton do, however, arrive in Devon on the back of two consecutive league victories. Do the have it in them to extend that run in front of the Sky cameras?
Style of play
We can be practically certain that Luton will line up with a back three. The rest of the shape is trickier to foresee. They could opt to line up with two strikers in a form of 3-5-2, or they may opt to deploy two attacking midfielders behind a lone striker, making a 3-4-2-1 akin to Argyle’s shape in their League One title-winning season. I imagine the 3-4-2-1 is more likely, given its success in Luton’s last two against Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday.
Whichever shape is chosen, the wing backs will be vital in both attack and defence. The 3-4-2-1 wouldn’t have the “2” acting as conventional wingers – rather, they’d play as inside forwards and look to threaten centrally at any given opportunity. Thus, the wing backs will be required to fill the gaps on the flanks.
Generally speaking, Luton have tended to have these positions covered. Alfie Doughty on the left feels far too good for the Championship; he’s played every minute in the league this season and will surely do so at Home Park. He was previously supported on the right by Chiedozie Ogbene, but his departure to Ipswich Town has left a gap to be filled. I expect that position to be taken up by Reuell Walters, though Doughty could do so himself with Amari’i Bell filling in on the left.
The back three looks to be an area of strength. Bell could play as a wide centre back to provide an extra outlet going forward, but I suspect Luton will stick with the trio that saw them win their last two: Teden Megi, Reece Burke and Mark McGuinness. Mengi and Burke both played regularly in the Premier League last season, whilst McGuinness arrived over the summer from Cardiff City (and boy have the Bluebirds missed him).
Behind them, Thomas Kaminski is the obvious choice in goal. That’s despite missing an earlier game due to one of the daftest red cards I’ve ever seen; including a paragraph on him is absolutely just an excuse to watch it again. Already on a yellow against Portsmouth, Kaminski demonstrated how desperate he was for an early bath by doing this…
Departures have hurt the Hatters in midfield, and the centre of the park has been a notable weakness across the early stages of the campaign. Edwards will hope that Tom Krauss, loaned from Mainz in the Bundesliga, can provide the answers. He made his debut from the bench against Wednesday, and if fit he’ll probably start alongside marvellously-named Marvelous Nakamba. If not, expect to see Liam Walsh in the side following his arrival on a free from Swansea City.
Luton’s attacking positions provide the real conundrums. I wouldn’t put it past them to be aggressive against Argyle and opt for two strikers. That would see Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris reignite their strike partnership, with the likelihood of Tahith Chong playing in behind. However, if I’m correct in assuming Luton will play a 3-4-2-1, we’d probably see ex-Argyle trialist Jordan Clark play instead of one of the strikers.
Under Steven Schumacher, Argyle fans saw how such a shape can work to perfection. Under Ian Foster, we saw the opposite. Let’s hope Luton’s formation proves just as dysfunctional on Friday.
Strengths
Given Luton were a top flight side a matter of months ago, we shouldn’t be shocked that their squad has quality individuals scattered around. I’d like to cover a few of those individuals here. For me, Doughty is the obvious place to start. He strikes me as the Hatters’ best player, and has everything Edwards’ system needs from a wing back.
Of course, he’s officially a defender, and his defensive attributes need to be up to scratch for him to be truly effective. They are. Doughty has made 11 interceptions across his six league games this season, with only four players in the division having made more. He goes one better when it comes to tackling, with only three Championship players having made more tackles than Doughty’s 20. Those numbers build on an already impressive record from the Premier League last season.
That’s marvellous before you even consider Doughty’s attacking numbers. Here, he appears even stronger. His total number of key passes (14) is again only beaten by four other players in the league, and he’s completed comfortably more crosses (24) than any other player. Dealing with him isn’t an easy task. In Joe Edwards, Argyle have perhaps the perfect player to complete said task, but he won’t have a straightforward evening.
Chong is another player who can make Luton tick going forward. The ex-Manchester United youngster joined the Hatters from Birmingham City ahead of their Premier League campaign, and he has four top flight goals to his name. Perhaps most famously, that included his first: a late goal in a 1-1 draw against Liverpool.
Chong is the sort of player who can give defenders headaches, perhaps demonstrated by the number of times he’s fouled. He’s won 16 free kicks so far this season, with only Leeds United’s Willy Gnonto (18) winning more. It builds on a reputation Chong earned last season, where he won a total of 64 fouls in the Premier League. Of course, that has its disadvantages too – a player fouled often can be guilty of holding onto the ball for too long – but it’ll provide a quandary for Argyle’s more defensive-minded individuals.
Then there’s the defensive line. I’ve been impressed by each one of Burke, Mengi and McGuinness in various ways this season.
Burke feels the more basic defender of the three; not a criticism, just a statement that he does the basics right. He’s completed a solid number of defensive actions, and that’s more impressive when you consider Luton tend to have a lot of the ball. If we weight defensive actions based on possession, Burke has completed 16.07 per 1000 opposition touches, narrowly missing out on the league’s top ten.
Mengi and McGuinness also have their strengths. The former strikes me as the best ball player; he’s completed more long passes than anyone else in Luton’s ranks, and is 14th for outfielders across the league as a whole. McGuinness, meanwhile, continues a record from last season of being outstanding in the air. Not a single player in the Championship thus far has won more aerial duels than McGuinness at a better success rate.
Luton have a squad full of talent; their supporters’ pre-season expectations were justifiable on that basis. It’ll be their hope that things will click at some point, and they’ll push their way to the upper reaches of the league. Could that start at Home Park?
Weaknesses
Right now, I think it’s evident that Edwards isn’t getting the most out of his talented side. And that’s not to bash him or his managerial talents – he’s proved over the last few years he has the ability to outperform a budget and get teams heading in the right direction. That’s not always the case with coaches emerging from the FA pathway.
So why has this season not started as he may have hoped? Well, one must sympathise with him on the midfield. Naturally, teams will get weaker after relegation as players move on, but Luton have suffered more than most with a gaping hole punched right in the centre of the park. Albert Sambi Lokonga’s loan expired, whilst Ross Barkley was never going to stay once relegation was confirmed. They may in time, but thus far the replacement options haven’t been able to fill that hole.
It provides an interesting conundrum for Wayne Rooney. Does he look at a weakened Luton midfield as an opportunity to switch back to a 4-2-3-1 and start Rami Al Hajj in his preferred position? Or will he look to outnumber the Hatters in the centre with his 4-3-3? I’d certainly feel safer with the same formation deployed against Sunderland and West Brom, but I can see the arguments for either.
The midfield has obviously contributed to Luton’s slower than expected start. However, I can’t help but feel these conversations would be very different if the Hatters were able to consistently finish their chances. Their big chance conversion rate sits at a very poor 20%, and they are one of the league’s biggest xG underperformers. Normal xG caveats apply, but as it stands they’ve scored five from an xG of 8.19, with the resulting -3.19 performance worse than all but two Championship sides.
I don’t like to single out, but I have to mention Adebayo. I don’t think he’s a bad player; far from it, in fact. His physicality will give Argyle plenty to think about should he start, but his finishing is a worry. No player in the Championship has missed more big chances than Adebayo’s seven, and no player has amassed more xG (2.59) without scoring a single goal. Given the traditional tightness of this league, particularly at this early stage of the season, those misses have considerably shaped the narrative.
I trust Adebayo to turn this around. He’s an excellent, strong striker who offers a lot to his side. He scored ten Premier League goals last season, considerably outperforming his xG, and it’s probably sod’s law that now I’ve brought it up he’ll break his duck for this season at Home Park. He’ll need to find the net for his own confidence soon though, before the damage his misses are doing to Luton’s season becomes irreparable.
There is also one specific weakness I want to touch on surrounding the defence. They appear to be vulnerable to attackers playing on the shoulder of the last defender, either via long through balls or simple balls over the top of the defence.
As well as the long ball from Portsmouth that caused Kaminski hilarious levels of panic, Luton conceded their first two goals of the season against Burnley in such fashion. Balls from the full backs immediately had an onrushing attacker in behind.
A similar sort of goal was conceded against Queens Park Rangers. This was more of a hoof, but McGuinness let the ball bounce behind him, allowing Michael Frey to get free in front of goal and eventually set up the equaliser. QPR would go on to win.
Given Michael Obafemi will be ineligible for the visit to his parent club Burnley, conventional wisdom suggests he should start here. But if you’re Ryan Hardie watching those clips, surely you’re champing at the bit to have a go at the Luton defence.
Prediction
Both sides made starts to the season that underwhelmed against expectations. But both have since picked up form, and will be hoping to continue riding a wave of positivity after this clash.
Whilst Luton may have the stronger squad on paper, I’ve reason to believe they won’t have everything their own way. I feel the mood around Argyle is more positive right now than it is around Luton, and we know what a Home Park atmosphere under the lights can do to a recently relegated side. Just ask Leicester City.
I’m not going to let optimism cloud my judgement too much, so I think a draw may be on the cards here. I’ll go for 1-1.
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