Preview: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth Argyle
Adam Price takes a look at the big opener on the eve of Argyle's season.
Another arduous wait has finally reached its conclusion. It’s been 99 days since captain, leader and legend Joe Edwards nodded home against Hull City to secure Plymouth Argyle’s Championship status. 99 days since yet another Home Park pitch invasion, and since THAT night on the Barbican.
We are back. And, as often appears to be the case, we’re back to a reinvented Argyle. The off-season saw Wayne Rooney appointed as head coach, a decision we’ll diplomatically describe as “surprising.” Reactions to the Manchester United legend’s arrival have been strong, on both sides of the argument.
Such is the psyche of a football fan though that on the eve of a new season it’s impossible not to feel a degree of optimism. As the old adage goes, everybody starts equal, and one can’t help but dream about what the next nine months may bring.
It won’t be a home start for Rooney. The fixture computer has dealt Argyle a trip to Sheffield on opening day to face Danny Rohl’s Wednesday. Hillsborough has been a particularly unhappy hunting ground for the Greens in recent times – they’ve lost on their last three visits, and haven’t won in the Owls’ back yard since 2011. But could this one be different? Could this season as a whole be different? Let’s explore.
Style of play
Mercifully, the fixture gods have handed us an opening day fixture against a side who haven’t changed their manager over the summer. We can therefore infer plenty from last season’s statistics about how Wednesday like to line up and play. And indications from pre-season suggest Rohl is going to stick with the ‘three at the back’ system with which Wednesday ended the previous campaign.
The Owls lined up with a 3-4-3 in their victory over Ian Foster’s Argyle in March, and I suspect they’ll do so again. In fact, we may see some very similar personnel. Will Vaulks has departed for Oxford United, and Ian Poveda’s loan has expired, but the other nine players to start for Wednesday that evening remain part of the squad.
After a successful loan spell last season, James Beadle is back for another year and will surely start in goal. March’s back three of Di’Shon Bernard, Dominic Iorfa and Michael Ihiekwe may be trusted again, though I suspect Rohl will make room for new arrival Yan Valery, who made over 40 appearances in the Premier League with Southampton.
The left wing back position looks to be a straight fight between Marvin Johnson and Max Lowe, the latter of whom caused quite a stir this summer by joining the Owls directly from city rivals Sheffield United. There is a similar story on the right, with the position likely to be taken up by one of Liam Palmer and Pol Valentin.
The central midfield feels slightly tougher to predict. Barry Bannan, as he’s so often been for Wednesday over the years, is surely a near certain starter, but I’m not so sure about his partner. Josh Windass has been tried there in pre-season, but if I had to guess I’d put my money on Nathaniel Chalobah, who arrived at Hillsborough this summer on a free transfer from West Bromwich Albion, getting the nod. Wildcard picks here though are very possible.
The make-up of the front line will probably be dependant on Rohl’s thoughts on Ike Ugbo. He was a big success on loan with the Owls last term, and has since returned permanently, but only arrived for his latest spell on Thursday. If he isn’t considered ready to start, another new arrival in Jamal Lowe will probably be favoured as the striker. Should Ugbo play, Lowe may be pushed out wide, or he could be dropped entirely to make room for March’s match winner Djeidi Gassama.
In possession, much of the threat will come from the two men either side of the striker. When a team has wing backs, one can often expect they’ll be providing the majority of the width. And don’t get me wrong, they’ll get forward when necessary. But Wednesday have a number of options in the front line who can do damage from a wide position, and they’ll be the source of much of the creativity and excitement. Bannan will of course also threaten with his passing and set pieces.
Off the ball, Wednesday are one of the league’s more physical sides. Their “bodies on the line” approach to defending saw only two sides complete more goal-line clearances in the Championship last season, and the Owls aren’t afraid to bend the rules when necessary. With 571, they committed the sixth-highest number of fouls in the league last year.
Wayne Rooney seems to have built a squad for a fight; they ought to be prepared for one here.
Strengths
Wednesday’s side isn’t filled with superstars. Perhaps the fact they can be greater than the sum of their parts ought to be considered a strength in its own right. Nonetheless, I do want to identify a few who could be regarded as danger men this weekend.
As lazy as it would appear, Bannan is always the obvious place to start. I must admit I’m wondering how long he can continue performing at such a level. He’ll turn 35 in December, and we know that deep, creative midfielders who start to lose their legs can quickly become a defensive liability (hello, David Fox). A day will surely soon arrive when Bannan’s cons outweigh his pros.
Still, based on last season’s numbers that day isn’t arriving just yet. He’s still a creative marvel in the middle of the park, and I expect he’ll cause many defences headaches this year. Last term, for example, he completed 61 key passes. That figure was comfortably more than any other Wednesday player, and put him in the top 3% of the league as a whole. His total of 165 long passes completed was also terrific. Only eight players in the Championship completed more, many of whom were defenders with plenty more time on the ball to pick the perfect pass.
Bannan will be a threat, and he’ll aim to create chances for another of the men I wish to mention: Ugbo. As previously outlined, he rejoined Wednesday this week after a successful loan spell during the second half of last season. However, I don’t think I’ve spoken enough about just how much of a revelation he was in that spell.
Ugbo first arrived at Hillsborough in January, borrowed from Troyes in France’s Ligue 2. That was after he spent the first half of the campaign with Cardiff City, where he hardly pulled up any trees. With Wednesday, it was a completely different story. He scored seven goals overall, amounting to 0.48 per 90 minutes (or, if you prefer, around a goal every two games). Not bad at all for someone lining up for a relegation contender.
And Ugbo wasn’t just a goalscorer last year – he was a clutch player. His seven goals were enough to win his side seven points, which is a remarkable feat considering he only made 18 appearances for the Owls. It’s too simplistic to say Ugbo’s presence was the difference between relegation and survival for Wednesday, but he certainly wasn’t a hinderance.
Now, Argyle supporters know as well as anyone that a player performing well during a loan spell won’t necessarily hit the same heights after joining permanently (hello, Jason Banton). Still, Ugbo will surely play a key role this weekend, either as a starter or, if he’s not fully match fit just yet, from the bench. Argyle may wish to hope it’s the latter.
Bannan and Ugbo will be ones to watch, but I’d argue that Wednesday’s main strength could be Rohl himself. Last October he joined a complete basket case of a club who appeared to be relegation certainties. His impact was revolutionary.
Under Xisco Munoz, Rohl’s predecessor, Wednesday averaged a disappointing 0.81 expected points per game, and a diabolical 0.27 actual points per game. Those figures shot up under Rohl, to 1.44 expected points per game and 1.43 actual points. Extrapolate that across the entire season, and Wednesday would have posted a total of 66 points, finishing comfortably in the top half.
You’ll notice that not only did Rohl improve Wednesday’s actual points per game, he also got his team performing much closer to how expected goals would suggest. Some of that can be put down to a simple reversion to the mean, but Rohl clearly got a side at an incredibly low ebb believing again. He removed the soft underbelly in the side, and helped them win the big moments in both boxes. It’s no wonder he’s highly rated.
I tend to think Wednesday will steer comfortably clear of relegation this season. Perversely, it may hinder them if they have a fast start, with bigger fish inevitably circling around for Rohl’s services. Alas, that would happen far too late for opening day.
Weaknesses
Wednesday did just about enough in both attack and defence last season to get themselves above the dreaded dotted line. Nonetheless, the fact they were close to that line in the first place suggests the existence of some deficiencies Argyle can look to exploit.
Obviously, some of the perceived weaknesses need to be qualified. Wednesday were in disarray before Rohl’s arrival, and some of that would have carried over to their stats for the season as a whole. Therefore, not every numerical deficiency will be Rohl’s fault, and may mean that it isn’t reflective of the Sheffield Wednesday we see today; ultimately, that will be most relevant to Argyle’s fortunes this weekend.
The German isn’t totally blameless though. He may not have had a full season at the helm, but he did oversee 35 league games, comfortably the lion’s share of the campaign. I do therefore believe the numbers remain relevant. Or, at least I’m hopeful they do, given they provide some hope for the travelling Greens.
The first thing to catch my eye was shooting. Put simply, Wednesday didn’t shoot well at all last season. Their total number of shots across 2023/24 was 512; only four Championship sides took a shot less often. It’s already a bad start.
We can also pick holes in the quality of those shots. Some teams will take a relatively low number of shots because they’re looking to set up the best possible opportunity, and their shot conversion is therefore higher than average. That wasn’t the case with Wednesday. In fact, both their shot accuracy (30%) and shot conversion (8%) ranked 21st in the Championship.
This all paints a picture of a team who didn’t shoot regularly, and when they did the shots weren’t particularly threatening. Consequently, it’s no surprise that the Owls failed to score in 19 league games last season. Only Rotherham United (I bet you thought I’d stop saying that this season) failed to find the net on more occasions.
It’s not just the attack – Wednesday were also occasionally found wanting in the defensive side of their game. Tackling acts as a fine example. Wednesday completed 772 tackles in the league last season, which was about average. But collectively they were dribbled past 396 times, with only four sides being dribbled past on more occasions. That gave them an implied tackle success rate of 66%. Again, only four teams were worse.
Combine those tackling numbers with the fact we’ve already described Wednesday as a side who commit many fouls. A picture then begins to emerge of a team who often overcommit. The likes of Morgan Whittaker and Ibrhaim Cissoko should be licking their lips at the prospect of facing the Owls. And as much as I’ve been impressed by the early signs of Nathanael Ogbeta, I’d be tempted to give Bali Mumba a go here too.
Considering the above, and the fact that Wednesday aren’t the sharpest shooters Argyle will face this season, one may be inclined to believe Argyle should play this game on their terms. They ought to focus more on what they can do, rather than the dangers the opposition may possess.
That may be easier said than done, but it’ll surely be Rooney’s game plan.
Prediction
Remember earlier when I said the start of a season brings natural optimism? Well, call me unnatural because I cannot see an eventuality where Argyle win this game.
I think Rooney’s side will have their moments, and I’m sure they’ll threaten on occasion. But when you consider Wednesday’s strengths, and combine it with the Pilgrims’ recent record at Hillsborough, the simple conclusion is that Rohl’s side are the more likely winners.
At this early stage, it certainly won’t have a major impact on Argyle’s season. Still, I can see the Rooney era starting with a defeat. 2-0 to the hosts.
‘Boo this man!’
Great read. Let’s hope Wee BB’s legs choose tomorrow to start going.