New Signing Analysed: Nathanael Ogbeta
Adam Price analyses new signing Nathanael Ogbeta as the 23-year-old becomes the first signing of the Rooney era.
By Adam Price
Plymouth Argyle have delved into the transfer market for the first time since Wayne Rooney’s appointment as head coach. Nathanael Ogbeta is the man through the door, signing on a free transfer following his release from Swansea City. Ogbeta will be forever remembered alongside the likes of Gary Sawyer, Joe Edwards, Ashley Phillips and even Alfie Lewis as a new Argyle gaffer’s first recruit.
Only 23, Ogbeta’s career has already taken an interesting path. He started in Manchester City’s academy, but didn’t make a first team appearance under Pep Guardiola. We can certainly forgive him. Instead, he signed for Shrewsbury Town, and impressed to the extent that he earned a move to the Championship with Swansea City. That proved unsuccessful, with loan spells in League One at both Peterborough United and Bolton Wanderers before his eventual release.
Much like his new head coach, Ogbeta has failed to make the grade in the Championship in the past, but has been given another chance at Argyle. He’ll have a point to prove, he’ll be hungry, and he’ll be doing all he can to make this move a success. And in good news, I’ve seen enough in his numbers to suggest he just might.
Demonstrably versatile
As mentioned, Ogbeta’s move to Swansea didn’t work out for any of the parties involved. He only made two Championship appearances before his contract expiry was confirmed this summer. That consisted of just 53 minutes of senior league action, and it’d be unfair to draw any conclusions at all on that basis.
Pleasingly, his spells at both Peterborough and Bolton were much more fruitful. He made 20 league appearances at Posh in 2022/23, consisting of 1502 minutes, and a further 16 appearances in Bolton, notching up a further 1076 minutes. 36 appearances across his two loan spells almost gives us a whole season’s worth of numbers to dissect. And in time, we certainly will.
Just for now though, there’s an interesting element of Ogbeta’s career I want to focus on. Across it, he’s worked under managers of varying character, with vastly different ideas of how a player in his position ought to operate. He’s impressed many.
At Peterborough, for example he played under Darren Ferguson, for whom a formation with four at the back is always preferred. His next spell came under Ian Evatt at Bolton, who practically exclusively used a back three with wing backs. It meant Ogbeta was pushed away from the left back role he was used to, and forced to play as a left wing back, with the different asks brought along with such a change.
Despite the switch in style, he remained comfortably in favour with both managers. At one stage in his half-season loan spell, he made 17 consecutive starts for Peterborough, and at Bolton he was trusted to start the League One play-off final. Clearly, both managers were willing to utilise Ogbeta, despite having differing demands for a player in his role.
Pre-season will tell us more, but at the moment we don’t know for sure which system will be Rooney’s preferred choice at Argyle. Having a player with Ogbeta’s versatility at his disposal will be an immediate advantage. His presence will make it easier to change plans during games, and will give Rooney more options when trying to shape his squad.
Attack brings the excitement
When announcing his signing, Ogbeta was described as a “left-sided defender” by Argyle. Indeed, he is a defender officially. But that hasn’t been the tone of the announcement, with excitement being the buzzword. Rooney himself said “I’m sure the fans will enjoy watching him play,” and that isn’t because of his ability to make a clearance or his defensive positioning.
Ogbeta excites in the way he goes forward, and often finds himself making an impact in attack. He scored on his first appearance for Bolton on a trip to Carlisle. Given he only came on for the final five minutes of that fixture, there was a time during his Bolton spell when he was scoring an average of 18 goals per 90 minutes. Luckily, we won’t make that a standard expectation.
He also has surprisingly good attacking instincts for a defender. Take a look at this goal from his Peterborough spell. In a team boasting the likes of Jonson Clarke-Harris, it was Ogbeta who got himself into the right place at the right time to secure three points against Derby County. The celebration wasn’t bad either.
Whilst his goalscoring exploits are a surprising plus, I’m even more impressed by Ogbeta’s creativity. I’d suggest his assists can be just as eye-catching as his goals. His best game in a Bolton shirt came in a regular season fixture against Oxford United. He scored the opening goal in a 5-0 trouncing, but his best moment saw him assist the fourth goal. It was a gorgeous first-time cross, putting the ball on a plate for Aaron Collins, who could hardly miss.
That’s not all. Later in the season, he assisted the same player with his weaker right foot against eventual champions Portsmouth. Was it really a shot? I’ll let you be the judge.
Ogbeta’s creativity is indeed the aspect that excites me the most. Across his 36 appearances at Peterborough and Bolton, he created 10 big chances. That equates to 0.35 big chances created per 90. At Argyle last season, only the outstanding Finn Azaz posted a better number.
How often have we had players at Argyle, particularly in the wide positions, who have plenty of flair but no tangible end product? Ogbeta has provided that end product in recent years, and if he can carry that form into the Championship it’ll be a huge bonus to Rooney and his side.
Maintaining defensive capability
The highlights, quite literally, will always come in attack. Indeed, Ogbeta will set pulses racing going forward. Remember though, playing for a lower-level Championship side is a different task to playing at the top-end of League One. Naturally, your team will have less possession, and defensive ability takes on a greater importance, particularly for a player in Ogbeta’s position. Are his defensive stats up to scratch?
Cautiously, I’d be keen to say yes. He’s never posted a huge number of standard defensive actions, such as clearances, blocks and interceptions, but he is very keen to put in a tackle. He made 64 in total across the two loan spells. Only Bali Mumba (65) made more for Argyle last season.
Ogbeta’s number equates to 2.23 tackles per 90, and he’s completed them with a success rate comfortably comparable with Argyle’s current wide defensive options. Compared exclusively to them, Ogbeta’s success rate is beaten only by Matthew Sorinola, the latter providing a much smaller sample size.
I’m also comfortable with his numbers in transition. Ogbeta won an average of 5.02 ground duels per 90 across his two loan spells, again putting him nicely in line with Argyle’s other full backs. Impressively, he did so with a success rate of 62%. Again, only Sorinola’s numbers live up to Ogbeta’s, and again that’s from a much smaller sample size. Sorinola won 32 ground duels last season, compared to the 144 Ogbeta won in the period we’re covering.
As a final figure on this point, consider this: across his two loan spells, Ogbeta averaged 68.18 touched per 90 minutes. Macauley Gillesphey was the only player to average a higher figure last season, and his figure is skewed by only playing 216 minutes. Ogbeta’s number comes from 2578 minutes of action. Clearly, he isn’t shy to get involved, and will carry out his fair share of dirty work alongside the exciting attacking output.
A Miller replacement?
As with all signings, we must consider the squad building rationale behind their arrival. Ogbeta joins a list of wing backs that is already strong. The four options on the table above could be joined by Brendan Galloway, who is primarily a centre back but has played as a wing back in the past, and loan returnee Saxon Earley.
I don’t think Ogbeta, who is closer to a winger than he is a centre back, is the sort of player who would be brought in to replace Galloway. Besides, Galloway signed a two-year extension to his contract whilst I was writing this piece, and is going nowhere. I do, however, feel like he has all the hallmarks of being a like-for-like replacement for Mickel Miller.
Think of the sort of style we see from Miller. At his best, he’s a player who will find space on the left, drive at the opposition defence, and put a cross into the area. The end product wasn’t always there but, particularly under Ian Foster, Miller’s intentions were obvious.
Ogbeta has that in his locker. Only Morgan Whittaker completed more dribbles at Argyle last season than Ogbeta across his loan spells, and nobody attempted or completed more crosses. Should his defensive numbers hold up at a higher level, it could be argued that Ogbeta acts as an upgrade on Miller, rather than simply as a replacement. His end product has been consistently more reliable, and the table below shows how they compare, with some stats that will look familiar.
I should mention that Ogbeta has been known to share another of Miller’s traits, and this one far less desirable: an injury record. Remember when I mentioned that Ogbeta started 17 consecutive games for Peterborough? That run was ended by a nasty quad injury in the penultimate game of the season. Who knows? Had Ogbeta been available, the play-off miracle at Hillsborough may have had a different ending.
That injury, picked up in April 2023 (the day Argyle secured promotion to the Championship, in fact), was significant. He didn’t play another game until January 2024, and it proved to be the final nail in the coffin of his Swansea stay. Whether you consider that to be unlucky or a sign of another injury-prone player arriving at Home Park is your prerogative.
Regardless, Argyle do appear to have found another Miller, in more ways than one. Miller himself hasn’t even left yet, and it’s possible that Argyle are signing a similar player so one can cover when the other is injured. Still, if they both stay fit, it’s possible Ogbeta represents an upgrade anyway.
Championship step key
I’ve alluded to this before, and it’s worth reiterating that how Ogbeta adapts to playing in the second tier will be absolutely crucial to determining whether his move is a success.
At two clubs now, he’s already proved he is a top-level League One player. Having just turned 23, the natural next step would appear to be one of the lower-level Championship sides. With that in mind, I can absolutely see why both player and club have made this move.
However, making that jump isn’t always easy. Take Mumba as an example. I don’t subscribe to the view that he was particularly poor last season, but he’ll be the first to admit that he failed to hit the heights he reached during Argyle’s promotion season from League One. And you can hardly blame him – put simply, the Championship is hard. Plenty of excellent League One players have failed to make the grade in the past, and plenty more will fail. Mumba still has time on his side, whilst others haven’t been so lucky.
Ogbeta’s numbers show that he is an excellent League One player. His stats for creating chances are hugely encouraging, and he wins ground duels and completes dribbles much more than the average player. But the Championship is a different beast. The players he’ll be duelling against, or trying to dribble past, will be better, stronger and more skillful than those he faced in League One.
Some players take to the challenge like a duck to water. Others simply cannot deliver at the higher level. Let’s hope Ogbeta falls into the former category.