Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Hull
Adam Price looks ahead to Argyle's match-up with familiar opponents.
Plymouth Argyle’s league season is about to get underway. After some positive signs against Cheltenham Town in the League Cup on Wednesday, Wayne Rooney’s Greens will look to get their league campaign off to a flying start against Hull City at Home Park. When you ignore the elephant in the room (or should that be owl?) from last Sunday, things feel fairly serene, right?
Alas, the 4-0 pummelling away to Sheffield Wednesday is not something any of us will forget in a hurry. Still, Argyle responded just about as well as they could, with an ultimately dominant 3-0 win in the cup, albeit against League Two opposition. They’ll now look to use that momentum going into Saturday’s game, as they aim not to be mauled by the Tigers.
Of course, Argyle have exceptionally pleasant memories of playing Hull. It’ll actually be their second home league game in succession against the same opponents, though Saturday’s game would have to go some to beat the previous occasion. If we can leave Home Park half as happy as we were after Joe Edwards’ legendary header secured Argyle’s Championship status, we’re in for a splendid time indeed.
I should say that Hull won’t be arriving in the same shape as they did back in May. Manager Liam Rosenior has been replaced by German coach Tim Walter, and there has been a fair amount of attrition on the transfer front. So what will they offer?
Style of play
Hull have had a dramatic change in coaching attitudes across the summer. Whilst Rosenior became known for serene, pleasant play, Walter enthusiastically agreed with a journalist who described his style as “heart attack football.” I’m sure that’ll have gone down magnificently with some elderly members of the Tigers’ fanbase.
Walter’s style will involve high-energy, high-pressing and high-risk football. There have already been three errors leading directly to a goal this season, and a further two more leading directly to a shot. It’ll be Walter’s aim that the pace and intensity of their attacks makes up for their defensive frailties. Much like Rooney’s Argyle, it may well be their aim to outscore teams this season, rather than focus on keeping them out.
To do this, Walter appears to favour a 4-3-3. The single pivot in the middle of the midfield three is intended to allow the other two to be more attacking options who join in the press when opponents try to play out from the back. Given what we know about Hull from previous encounters, one may expect that single pivot to be Jean Michael Seri, though Xavi Simons (no, not the Dutch international) seems to be the preferred choice for now.
Ahead of him, I’d expect to see Marvin Mehlem start. He arrived from Darmstadt over the summer, and has started both games this season in league and cup, scoring in the latter. The other midfield choice will probably depend on how Walter intends to use Abdulkadir Omur. He may well play as an attacking midfielder, but expect Regan Slater to take that position should Omur be required on the right of the front three.
Said front three is likely to be led by Oscar Estupinan. His presence is somewhat of a surprise, given he spent much of last season on loan abroad, first in France and later in Brazil. Still, he played the full 90 minutes in Hull’s league curtain raiser against Bristol City, and scored a stoppage time equaliser from the penalty spot. On the left Liam Millar, on loan at Ryan Lowe’s Preston North End last year, is an option, though Walter may opt for the more defensive Ryan Giles to combat the threat of Morgan Whittaker.
If Millar starts, Giles may drop into the back four on the left-hand side, with captain Lewie Coyle on the right (summer arrival Cody Drameh is another option). Jacob Greaves’ departure to Ipswich Town leaves a significant void in the centre of the defence; I’d expect that to be filled by Alfie Jones and one of Sean McLoughlin and Finley Burns, the latter of whom is on loan from Manchester City. Given Anthony Racioppi’s disastrous outing in the cup against Sheffield Wednesday in midweek, I imagine Ivor Pandur will be preferred in goal.
As things stand, Hull have a pretty threadbare squad, which is hardly conducive to high-octane football. Given that, it’s no surprise that they’re set to bolster their ranks. Walter has confirmed that Charlie Hughes, Oscar Zambrano and Mason Burstow are all set to sign, and those deals may well be complete in time for them to get some minutes at Home Park. By the time you’re reading this, the trio may already be Hull players.
This is a Hull City team transformed. And based on recent reports, that transformation is still ongoing.
Strengths
Hull City have changed their manager, and by all accounts they’ve changed their style. What they haven’t done, unlike Argyle’s midweek cup opponents, is sign a raft of players before the start of the season. Significant transfer business is still to be done, but on opening weekend Hull lined up with just two players in the starting 11 who were not at the club last season.
That means there are some general strengths, as well as individual brilliance, that will have carried over from one season to the next. I’m therefore giving myself license to use some of last season’s stats to form the basis of this section.
I’d first like to mention central defender Alfie Jones. He went somewhat under the radar last year, with fellow defender Greaves taking much of the acclaim and securing a move to the Premier League. That’s not to say Jones was poor though; far from it, in fact.
In the Championship last season, only ten players completed more clearances than Jones, and only nine blocked more shots. Jones outranked Greaves in both metrics. He just about did the same for interceptions (46 vs 45) and pass success (90% vs 89%). And I’ve been most impressed by his long passing – only six outfield players completed more in the league last season, and Jones completed his with an impressive success rate of 51%.
There are many reasons why Greaves got a big-money move to the top flight, whilst Jones remains at Hull. Greaves is three years younger than Jones, and proved to be much better in the air and in the tackle. Still, Jones is a very similar profile of defender, and will act as a significant roadblock to Argyle’s ambitions at the weekend.
More generally, Hull were some of last season’s sharpest shooters. They may have only ranked 9th for shots taken overall, but their 37% shot accuracy was particularly impressive, and second only to Southampton in the league. I accept that not everybody who contributed to that figure is still at the club, and I’ll touch on that a little later on, but these sorts of trends can carry over. If they do, Conor Hazard (or any other potential arrivals who may have been announced by the time this is published) may have to prepare for a busy day.
They were also a side with strong mentality under last term. They gained a total of 18 points from losing positions, with only three teams in the Championship gaining more. They’ve picked up where they left off in this case, with Estupinan’s stoppage time goal salvaging a point on opening day. Whether this can continue under Walter, whose style will drain energy more than most, remains to be seen. Regardless, Argyle would be wise not to take their foot off the gas if they take an early lead.
In truth, the strengths of Walter’s team will become apparent in time. Maybe they’ll remain similar, or maybe others will come to the fore. The Hull hierarchy will hope that the current team use last season’s strengths as a platform upon which to push on up the table. Perhaps we’ll see signs of that at Home Park.
Weaknesses
As I mentioned in the introduction, this isn’t the same Hull City who visited Home Park back in May. And I don’t necessarily believe much of that change has been for the better.
Over the summer they’ve lost personnel who were significant in the club’s play-off push last term. Of course, some of that was by choice. Their decision to sack Rosenior raised more than a few eyebrows, and only time will tell whether replacing him with Walter will bring the Tigers the success they desire. On the playing front though, there are absentees whose departure will inevitably be felt.
The most obvious for casual observers is Jaden Philogene. He led Hull’s ranks for both goals and assists last season, notching 18 goal contributions overall. He also took more shots, made more key passes and completed more dribbles than anyone in the side. He’s since left, rejoining boyhood club Aston Villa on a permanent deal.
He’s not the only departure. Greaves has already been mentioned, and we can add Fabio Carvalho and Liam Delap to the list. They both returned to their parent clubs after loan spells at Hull, and have since been sold on for eight-figure sums. Tyler Morton, who created more big chances than any other Hull player last term, is another loanee who hasn’t reunited with the club. Second-top goalscorer Ozan Tufan has been sold to Trabzonspor.
In fact, Hull’s eight top league goalscorers from last season are no longer with the club. The Tigers scored 68 league goals last season, and a remarkable 63 were scored by players who have since departed. Or, to put that another way, the current squad put together scored five goals for Hull last season.
Now, it’s obviously too simplistic (and a little ridiculous) to say that Hull would only have scored five goals last season had those players not been around. Others would have taken their place in the side, and this year we may see some of those “others” make a significant impact. Still, replacing 93% of the goals scored last season is not a task that can happen overnight. It’ll require significant transfer activity, and an equally significant bedding in period.
We’re still well within that period. Hull are busy in the transfer market, and as I mentioned three new signings are imminent at the time of writing. Nonetheless, more work is necessary, and even the most ardent Hull supporter would concede that their squad as it stands is weaker than when the two sides met at the end of last season. That squad arguably underachieved by failing to reach the play-offs; this squad is currently nowhere near that level.
I’d also just touch on what we’ve seen from Walter’s Hull in his limited time in charge. As I’ve mentioned, they’ve made three mistakes leading directly to goals in their two games thus far, and some of them have shown a worrying degree of sloppiness.
Take the goal they conceded against Bristol City as an example. Matty Jacob barely made contact on his attempted clearance, allowing Fally Mayulu to fire home.
The second goal they conceded against Sheffield Wednesday in midweek was even worse. They never really looked comfortable against Wednesday’s press, and goalkeeper Racioppi allowed the ball to roll under his foot to give Charlie McNeil a simple finish.
This would appear to be what happens when “heart attack football” isn’t fully refined. At its best I’m sure it can be thrilling, but right now the heart attacks are being caused in defence. Argyle will hope that sloppiness continues into the weekend.
Prediction
I can see this being a completely different game to the one we saw against Cheltenham in midweek. Michael Flynn set his side up to contain Argyle, whilst Walter will look to take the game to the Greens. Given how open they’ve looked, and how open Argyle looked at Hillsborough, I can imagine this will be a game where attacks are on top of defences.
I have to say this feels like an excellent time to be playing Hull. They may turn out to have a productive season if Walter gets his style to work and they have a good final few weeks of the transfer window. Right now though, the squad hasn’t been completely built, and the style remains far from its peak.
Based on that, and the fact I can foresee an open game, I think Argyle may just about win. They won’t have it all their own way, and the lead may well change hands, but when the final whistle blows I back the Greens to have their noses in front. 3-2 to Argyle.