Preview: Derby vs Plymouth Argyle

Adam Price previews Argyle's latest chapter of this crazy Championship season.

Blimey, what sort of league is the Championship? Why did we ever want to be promoted to this level?

Plymouth Argyle picked up a vital victory in midweek against Portsmouth. Before that, the period following the international break had been difficult to say the least, with three defeats and a fortunate (albeit entertaining) 3-3 draw with Preston North End. Following their latest victory, Argyle moved from 22^nd in the league to…22^nd. But they’re level on points with another five teams, and closer to 9^th than they are to 23^rd. It’s a truly insane league.

Argyle’s next task will be a visit to Derby County. The Rams sit just outside the top half, but the Greens will go level on points with them if they pick up a long-awaited away win. And they’ll have to ensure they’re not distracted, with the day resembling a school reunion more than a Championship football match. Wayne Rooney and Morgan Whittaker return to their old stomping ground, whilst Curtis Nelson and Sonny Bradley are set to line up against their former employers.

After Portsmouth, Derby will be the second newly promoted team in succession to face Argyle. Can the Pilgrims repeat Tuesday’s result and finally get their first win on the road this season? Let’s look at the side standing in their way.

Style of play

Argyle’s last trip to Pride Park saw them come back from 2-0 down to win, with Sam Cosgrove scoring a late winner on his debut. Have I mentioned this as another excuse to live that game back? Of course I have. And so can you.

That day, the Rams were led by Liam Rosenior, and under his management possession was paramount. That remained the case to a lesser extent under Rosenior’s successor Paul Warne, at least whilst Derby remained in League One. Since promotion, it’s been totally different. Their average possession this season has been 43%, with only Millwall seeing less of the ball in the entire league.

Planning for this game may be trickier than normal, with Warne deploying several formations to start the campaign. The most common appears to be a 4-3-3 and, given Derby will consider this one of their most winnable games, it wouldn’t surprise me if that was what Warne settled on this weekend. However, a 4-2-3-1 and even systems with three at the back can be turned to whenever necessary.

Whichever shape is used, the wide players will be of vital importance. In possession, Derby are a team who like to get the ball wide and cross it. They tend to do so successfully, with their cross success rate of 27% only bettered by two sides in the division. Former Ipswich man Kayden Jackson seems a certain starter on the right, and I’d be very surprised not to see Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, scorer of Derby’s second in Argyle’s last visit, coming in from the left.

If Derby do indeed switch to a 4-3-3, it’ll mean just the one striker features from the start. That man looks very likely to be Jerry Yates, who appears to be first choice at Pride Park this year ahead of James Collins. Derby switched to a 3-4-1-2 against Coventry City in midweek, but it was 19-year-old Dajaune Brown who started alongside Yates. In theory, that does present another option.

All of Derby’s potential shapes involved three men in midfield in some capacity. Of those, the only certain starter appears to be Ebou Adams. Kenzo Goudmijn and Liam Thompson were used alongside Adams last time around, but I suspect Ben Osborn will come in after being rested in Coventry, provided he doesn’t need to cover for the injured Callum Elder at left back. Marcus Harness, another former Ipswich player, provides a more attacking midfield option, and may be trusted to start at home.

The reason I’m so convinced Derby will switch back to a 4-3-3 is the fact they’re missing a vital cog that would allow them to field a back three. Centre back Eiran Cashin picked up a stupid yellow card against Coventry; it happened to be a fifth of the season, and he’s suspended for Argyle’s visit. I’d therefore expect the familiar Nelson to line up alongside Liverpool loanee Nat Phillips (though of course Bradley is an option), with Kane Wilson timing his return from injury well to start on the right. Craig Forsyth is the most likely choice for the left back position.

That just leaves the goalkeeper: Jacob Widell Zetterstrom. It’s an eccentric name, and the Swede is eccentric by nature. He makes some wonderful saves, and is doing well to outperform his post-shot xG figure this season. However, he’s already made two errors leading directly to a shot or a goal, and he’s also given away a penalty. Another clanger this weekend would be very welcome.

I don’t necessarily see Derby as a team with numerous quality individuals. To be fair, being newly promoted it would be surprising if they were. Warne deserves credit for making them more than the sum of their parts, particularly at home. I sense a trip to Pride Park will be tricky this season, even for teams with a decent away record. Let alone Argyle.

Strengths

Set pieces. The numbers Warne’s side are posting from dead ball situations this season must be hugely encouraging. I’d argue Derby’s set-piece threat has been the main thing keeping them away from the relegation zone at this early stage of the season.

Derby have scored a total of nine goals from set pieces this season, with the next best side (Coventry City) way back on six. Derby also top the league’s standings when looking at goals from corners alone. And whilst those numbers are already strong, they become even more notable when we consider them as a proportion of Derby’s total number of goals.

Goals from set pieces make up exactly 50% of Derby’s league goals this season. Set piece situations also account for 41% of Derby’s xG total of 12.88. Both figures, to put it simply, are gargantuan. 41% of xG stemming from set pieces is comfortably the highest in the league, and the difference for actual goals is even more telling. Preston are second on the list, but lag well behind Derby’s 50% figure, with 36% of their goals coming from set piece situations.

I’d suggest corners are Derby’s main threat overall. Warne’s side have had 78 corners in total this season, and they’ve led to six goals. That means 7.7% of the corners Derby have taken have resulted in goals. Comparatively, it’s another huge figure. Nobody else in the league comes within a single percentage point of that number, and the average across the league is 2.9%.

Many may have seen Nelson’s goal from a corner against Queens Park Rangers, as his sublime header went viral on social media. Given Argyle’s set piece weaknesses, and the trend for players harming their old clubs, would anyone bet against him doing the same this weekend?

In open play, I’ve been impressed by a lot of the work Derby do on the ground. For example, they’ve been strong dribblers this season, with their success rate of 51% beaten by only three teams in the league. It allows them to reach better positions for their crosses, and probably helps to explain why they’ve been so successful with balls into the box. In particular, whoever starts at right back for Argyle will have trouble dealing with Mendez-Laing.

Derby are also handy at stopping their opponents completing their own dribbles. Collectively, they’ve been dribbled past 93 times this season, which is around average. But their total of 266 tackles ranks very highly. It gives them an implied tackle success rate of 74%, which is the highest figure of any team in the league. Combine that with the fact that Derby are one of the best intercepting sides in the league (we appear to be facing plenty of those lately), and it has all the ingredients for a frustrating afternoon for Argyle going forward.

Those numbers create a quandary. With Argyle being one of the worst teams in the league in the air, I usually feel it’s to their detriment if games (particularly away) turn into an aerial battle. But with Derby so strong with the ball on the floor, it could suit Argyle if the encounter turns a little scrappy. As we saw against Portsmouth, it may work to have Andre Gray put in a shift up front, with either Michael Obafemi or Ryan Hardie coming on later against tired legs. I’d also be tempted to start Mustapha Bundu over Freddie Issaka on the left.

Finally, I’ll just mention goalkeeper Zetterstrom again. As I alluded to previously, he’s a good shot stopper, but he’s never too far away from a clanger. Of the two, Dan Grimshaw is comfortably the safer pair of hands. That being said, Zetterstrom is clearly better when it comes to crosses. In fact, the Derby ‘keeper is one of only four in the league to rank in the top ten for both punches and high claims this season.

With that in mind, it may be best for Argyle to focus their attacks through the middle. In theory, that should suit them anyway, but teams appear to have found ways of stopping that in recent weeks, and thus Argyle may struggle to break Derby down. Given the Greens are almost certain to concede at the other end, that’s a problem.

Weaknesses

Don’t get me wrong, set pieces are a huge part of Derby’s game. Their raw numbers alone would rank highly across the league. However, I will just add a caveat to some of the figures I covered in the previous section. One of reasons set pieces are proportionately so vital to Derby’s attack is that they create so little from open play.

In that regard, Derby remind me hugely of Portsmouth. We saw on Tuesday night how a side with that deficiency can struggle. Sure, Portsmouth tended to have the better of the game; they were proficient in the press, and generally won the midfield battle. Ultimately though, that didn’t translate to chances. The xG figures were practically identical, and Argyle actually had two big chances to Portsmouth’s one. I don’t think it’s a game the Pompey attack will look back on with pride.

Ideally, Derby will put in a similar performance on Saturday, and the numbers in this area are cause for encouragement. The Rams have had a total of 143 shots this season, which at the last count was only good enough to rank 20^th across the division. It’s not the easiest stat to find but, given what we know about Derby’s set piece threat, we can safely assume that their total number of open play shots would rank even lower.

Expected goals stats help shine a spotlight on this issue. Of Derby’s total xG of 12.88, 7.54 has come from open play. Portsmouth are the only team in the league to have posted a lower xG figure from open play. Indeed, both Derby and Portsmouth have a lower open play xG total than Argyle this season, something I find remarkable when I consider the number of times Rooney’s side have struggled to create a single chance.

Argyle should cling onto those numbers when forming their game plan. Derby have their threats, but they’re very specific, and Argyle have surely worked on defensive set pieces in the build up to this game. Simple things could also aid the Greens in their search of a positive result. Don’t give away silly free kicks in crossing positions. Don’t concede any cheap corners. Sensible, basic play when out of possession would help Argyle immensely.

For the free kicks point, I’d like to think Argyle would find that relatively straightforward. In researching this game, I was taken aback by the discrepancy between the sides in terms of winning fouls.

Collectively, Derby’s players have been fouled 125 times this season. That’s a lower total than any other side in the league. Sure, there are reasons why that number may be so low. They have less of the ball than most other sides, and completing many of their dribbles means they’re not stopped by fouls as often as others. Still, the fact they rank dead last in the metric suggests something is missing, something that could diplomatically be described as “experience” when coming into contact.

Conversely, Argyle have won 194 fouls this season, which is more than any team in the Championship. Such a difference should again provide encouragement. Given Argyle’s away record, Derby’s supporters will be expecting to win this game. But if Argyle can win some timely fouls, they’ll go a long way to curbing the hosts’ momentum, and get themselves into the contest.

Derby are strong at home, but they’re strong in the basic sense. For Argyle, it could simply be a case of keeping their heads and seeing out a result. If they maintain their concentration, Rooney’s side have enough about them to blunt Derby’s attacking threat, and on paper have the quality to carry a more significant threat going the other way.

So, I guess the question is: do you trust this Argyle side to keep their heads away from home?

Prediction

Derby’s set piece prowess and general setup reminds me of Cardiff City. Derby’s general toothlessness from open play reminds me of Portsmouth. Who do they resemble most? Answer that, and you’ll probably be able to conclude who’s most likely to win the game.

Honestly, had this game been taking place at Home Park, I’d probably have a different view. Right now though, it would genuinely feel foolish backing Argyle to win away from home. It wouldn’t come as a shock at all if Derby score from a set piece, and if they get themselves into the lead I suspect they’ll easily be able to control the game.

2-0 Derby, and plenty of questions lingering over Argyle for the duration of the next international break.