Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Blackburn
Adam Price looks ahead to a swift Home Park returns as the greens get a chance to put it right fast.
Having thrilled their fans, and stunned the viewing public, with a 3-1 win over Luton Town last week, Plymouth Argyle were brought back down to Earth in Burnley. Wayne Rooney’s side played out a fairly insipid affair at Turf Moor, eventually going down 1-0 to Josh Brownhill’s first half penalty. It wasn’t the worst performance or result we’ve ever seen, but as ever a defeat creates a desire for a swift response in the next fixture.
Pleasingly, Argyle have the chance to put things right straight away, though they may not face the easiest of challenges. Blackburn Rovers have started the season stronger than I think many anticipated, and come into this game just inside the Championship’s play-off positions. Still, they also suffered defeat in midweek with a 3-0 shellacking at Coventry City, and will have to lick their wounds quickly before embarking on an even longer away day at Home Park.
Let’s have a look at what John Eustace’s side will offer, and try to conclude who is most likely to get back to winning ways.
Style of play
Having recently played sides relegated from the Premier League who, at least in theory, like to keep the ball on the floor, Blackburn could provide a culture shock. Perhaps aside from Queens Park Rangers, Eustace’s side will be the most physical Argyle have faced thus far this season.
They may not win every duel, but they’ll put themselves about and try to disrupt their opponents. They have, for example, been involved in the third-highest number of aerial duels across the Championship, even though their success rate is around average. They’ll be willing to push to the edge of acceptable and beyond, with only Burnley and Preston North End having committed more fouls. Captain Lewis Travis is already one booking away from a suspension, having picked up four yellow cards in his first eight league games.
Under Eustace, getting the basics right is paramount. As such, it’s not too surprising that he tends to prefer deploying a fairly basic 4-2-3-1. It’s a similar shape to the one we saw used by Burnley, but unlike their Lancashire rivals Blackburn tend to have a fairly settled lineup, and we can reasonably predict many of those who will start on Saturday.
Aynsley Pears has been ever-present in goal. He’s likely to be supported by a central defensive pairing of Dominic Hyam and Danny Batth. Hayden Carter was part of that pairing but has been shifted out to the right due to an injury to regular right back Callum Brittain. With Owen Beck still suspended for…erm…getting bitten against Preston, Harry Pickering is almost certain to start on the left.
A midfield double pivot will sit ahead of them. That has almost exclusively consisted of the aforementioned Travis and Sondre Tronstad, though Stoke City loanee Lewis Baker provides another option. There is a selection dilemma in the ‘number 10’ position; Tyrhys Dolan has done well so far, but Todd Cantwell started there against Coventry with Dolan playing out wide. Given how well that went, it wouldn’t surprise me if things were switched back against Argyle.
If Dolan does play as a winger, he’ll be supported on the other flank by one of Ryan Hedges and Andi Weimann, whilst both may play if Dolan lines up in the middle. Neither strikes me as a tricky winger who will get to the byline and cross, but both can make chances for themselves and will be aided by the central striker. Yuki Ohashi is the likely starter, whilst Makhtar Gueye provides a more physical option.
Generally, going direct to this centre forward is a crucial part of the approach. Blackburn aren’t exactly strangers to playing out from the back, with Hyam in particular seeming comfortable with the ball at his feet, but their instincts are much closer to route one. Only Preston have completed more long passes this season across the league.
Some of those passes may be long balls into the space behind the defence. Only two Championship teams have been caught offside on more occasions, suggesting setting one of the front three free into this space is a clear game plan. It doesn’t work every time, but it may only need to be successful once to be deadly.
This worries me slightly. Stoke City came to Home Park with a similar plan and were able to create numerous big chances as a result. Argyle will need to ensure they don’t turn in a similar performance.
Strengths
Once again, Argyle will be facing a side who are prolific in front of goal. Much as Burnley were top scorers in the division before drawing a blank at Oxford, Blackburn led the goalscoring charts before being usurped by Sunderland in midweek. And whilst the number of goals may be similar, the way they’ve been going in is different; I’ve been much more impressed with the way Blackburn attack than I was with Burnley.
In my view, Burnley are lucky to have scored their number of goals. They’ve been outperforming their xG all season, and have been fortunate with hopeful shots dropping in and some fairly sub-standard goalkeeping in their favour. Now, Blackburn are also outperforming their xG, so you may have similar thoughts about them (it’ll certainly be interesting to see if they can sustain their overperformance across the season). There is one key difference though: rather than getting lucky, Blackburn have been shooting magnificently.
From the data we have available (up to but not including the midweek fixtures), Blackburn have posted a total xG of 8.07. That’s about average, but their post-shot xG (measuring the quality of the shot rather than the quality of the chance) is the highest in the league at 13.77. Blackburn have hugely increased their chances of finding their net with their shooting alone. Their post-shot xG sits 5.70 higher than their standard xG, by far the highest such overperformance in the league.
It's no surprise that this is also reflected in some non-xG stats. Thus far Blackburn top the Championship charts for both shot accuracy (44%) and shot conversion (18%). Burnley rank highly for shot conversion, but not for shot accuracy, again suggesting they’ve benefitted from poor goalkeeping in building up their tally of goals. Blackburn have not had that problem.
Perhaps most impressively, there isn’t a standout player contributing to this overperformance. Rather, it is a team effort to ensure they’re always making the most of their opportunities. Ohashi is perhaps deserving of the most credit having scored four league goals thus far, but he’s just one of a number of attacking players who can be proud of their efforts.
In fact, Blackburn have had nine different goalscorers in the league this season, behind only Sunderland with ten. And that extends to the players on the bench as well as the starting 11; collectively, Blackburn’s substitutes have added eight goal contributions so far, easily the highest number in the league and well clear of Leeds United in second (five).
In short, Blackburn have several players who can hurt their opponents right across the attacking third. This will undoubtedly provide Argyle a tough challenge – combined with the frequency of Blackburn’s balls in behind the defence, it’s tough to see the Pilgrims keeping their first league clean sheet of the campaign.
I’ve spent a while praising the attack, so I’ll just take a moment to offer Blackburn some credit out of possession. The numbers thus far would suggest they are one of the best tackling sides in the league. They’ve made 125 tackles and been dribbled past 38 times, giving them an implied tackle success of 77%. Only Sheffield Wednesday have posted a better figure this season, and only when rounding to two decimal places.
Blackburn are the sort of opponent I can imagine will frustrate the likes of Morgan Whittaker and Ibrahim Cissoko if they don’t release the ball quickly. I imagine one of those will find that somewhat easier than the other.
Weaknesses
I feel like a broken record every time I mention it, but it’s a fair point for any team in Blackburn’s situation. They may be overperforming their xG now, but is that sustainable long-term? Sure, they could end up like Argyle in their 2022/23 title-winning season and have their strong shooting carry on all year, but it’s probably more likely that we’ll see a regression to the mean at some stage. Could that start at Home Park on Saturday?
If it does, one suspects the absence of Sammie Szmodics will be sorely felt. He was Blackburn’s primary goal threat last season, with daylight second, and he’s now a Premier League regular with Ipswich Town. I mentioned earlier that there is no obvious individual threat in Blackburn’s squad, which is absolutely fine when everyone is contributing, but if the goals dry up do they have somebody like Szmodics who can take a game by the scruff of the neck? Perhaps someone will emerge, but that could take time.
That’s a story I’ll be interested in following across the campaign, but it may be irrelevant to Argyle’s prospects for the weekend if Blackburn keep overperforming. Fortunately, I think I’ve identified a few more weaknesses the Pilgrims can look to exploit more directly.
Perhaps surprisingly for a team who often play long balls to a centre forward, Blackburn haven’t been crossing particularly well. They’ve completed 19% of their crosses so far this season, with only Portsmouth (18%) and Stoke (13%) completing a lower proportion. As I mentioned earlier, the wingers are probably more proficient at taking chances rather than creating, and right now the full backs aren’t providing the requisite attacking width to be a constant threat with crosses.
That provides Rooney with an interesting selection conundrum. It appears he tried to ‘get away’ with using Nathanael Ogbeta and Victor Palsson in the full back positions in Burnley, but given Blackburn focus many of their attacks down the centre he may have been better served by using this game to bite that particular bullet. I suspect Joe Edwards (if fit) and Bali Mumba will come back in regardless though, and Blackburn’s crossing inadequacies could allow at least one of Whittaker and Cissoko to remain upfield for any potential counter attacks.
On another note, this may be a good opportunity for Argyle to break their set piece duck for the season. Blackburn have conceded three goals from set pieces this season – two from corners against Derby County and one from a free kick against Coventry. That means Eustace’s side have conceded 33% of their league goals from set pieces this season, with only Sheffield Wednesday (36%) and Bristol City (38%) having conceded a higher proportion. Given their ability from dead ball situations, it’s unsurprising that Argyle haven’t scored a single set piece goal this year. Could that change on Saturday?
Finally, I’ve already compared Blackburn to Argyle for their sharp shooting. But there is another similarity they share with the Greens they’ll probably be less proud of: the disparity between home and away form. Blackburn have been on fire in front of their own fans this season, winning every single league game. On their travels? They’ve not picked up a single victory, and suffered defeat on the road just a few days ago by being battered in Coventry.
Argyle come into this one on the back of a disappointing result, but Blackburn may be the ideal opponents to bolster their strong form at Home Park.
Prediction
You may recall in my Burnley preview that I’d have backed Argyle at Home Park, but felt a trip to Turf Moor was a completely different kettle of fish. In many ways, the same is true for Blackburn’s visit. I’d have backed Eustace’s side to triumph had the game been taking place in Lancashire, but Argyle are a different animal in front of their own fans, and Blackburn haven’t travelled particularly well.
Given Blackburn’s shooting quality, and the fact that their preference for balls in behind has been known to hurt Argyle, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t score at least once. But Argyle have talents of their own; maybe I’m blinded by optimism following the last two home performances, but I think the Greens will have enough about them to secure victory on this occasion. 2-1 Argyle.
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