Preview: Norwich vs Plymouth Argyle
As Argyle gear up for one of their longest road trips of the season, Adam Price looks ahead to the game.
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”
I don’t know whether this will come as a shock, but I’ve not watched The Godfather trilogy in its entirety. As such, I can’t comment on my feelings for that line at source. Of course, these days such a viewing wouldn’t be necessary; Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth Argyle seem to be encompassing that spirit every week.
Having been outplayed by Watford, and with knives in the process of being sharpened, Argyle once again got out of jail with a moment of magic. This time it was ex-Hornet Andre Gray who had the Midas touch, his late strike marking the fourth time this season that Argyle have scored a result-altering goal in second half stoppage time. Somehow – SOMEHOW – the Pilgrims have extended their unbeaten home run to six games.
As we know, away from home it’s a different story. Argyle will have another test on the road on Tuesday night with a trip to Norwich City. The Canaries are traditionally strong at home, and generally find themselves in the promotion fight whenever they’re in this division. However, a run of seven league games without a win has placed a little pressure on the shoulders of new manager Johannes Thorup.
Will a game against Argyle be just what the hosts need? Or can Rooney’s side finally bring one of their magical moments away from home? Let’s take our customary look at the opposition.
Style of play
After a mixed bag of opponents in recent weeks, Argyle are now back to playing one of the most possession-hungry teams in the league.
The stats we have available don’t include the matches from the recent weekend, but nothing that happened there will have changed the above narrative. At the last count, Norwich ranked second in the league for touches, passes attempted and passes completed. At the other end of the scale, they rank 23rd for the proportion of passes they send long, with only Leeds United posting a lower figure than Norwich’s 8%.
Overall, Thorup’s side have posted a pass success rate of 86%, which is the third-best number in the Championship. And that figure becomes even better when we discount the small number of long passes they do attempt. With 90%, Norwich have a better short pass success rate than any other team in the league.
To make such a style work, it’s necessary to have players all over the pitch who are comfortable on the ball. This extends to goalkeeper Angus Gunn, as well as the centre backs. There, we’re likely to see two of Shane Duffy, Callum Doyle and Jose Cordoba.
If Duffy and Cordoba are preferred, Doyle will probably switch to the left back position, with Jack Stacey on the other side in the absence of the suspended Kellen Fisher. If, however, Cordoba missed out (it’s possible after a minor injury on international duty with Colombia), Doyle would come back to the centre, and Ben Chrisene could get an opportunity at left back.
To allow the ball to be progressed forward from the defensive line, Thorup likes to line up with a 4-3-3. This involves a single midfield pivot, who will pick up possession and distribute it to those in a more advanced role. Recently, Jacob Lungi Sorensen has been trusted in this role, but that was after Kenny McLean received a four-game suspension. McLean returns just in time for this game and, given Thorup’s comments in the build-up, it’d be a shock not to see him return to the side.
Norwich have the option of switching to a double pivot of Sorensen and McLean, or they could stick with the initial shape. Whatever the formation, Emiliano Marcondes feels a likely starter in an advanced midfield role after scoring against West Bromwich Albion on Saturday. If he does have a partner it’s likely to be Oscar Schwartau, with Anis Ben Slimane injured and Gabriel Forsyth a much more inexperienced option.
The versatility of Marcondes and Schwartau in particular (both can play in attack as well as midfield) means it’s hard to predict Norwich’s front three. The only certainty is that Championship top scorer Borja Sainz will start on the left. If I had to guess, I’d assume big-money summer arrival Ante Crnac will play down the middle with Amankwah Forson on the right, though Kaide Gordon could feel he’s earned a start in the latter position.
Much like Watford, Norwich’s instinct won’t be to get the ball wide before crossing it into the middle, particularly in the apparent absence of a classic centre forward. Instead, they’ll aim to play through the middle of teams and run at defences, demonstrated by the fact that only three teams have attempted more dribbles than Norwich this season. Admittedly, both of Watford’s goals against Argyle stemmed from balls across the box, so it remains a viable option, but it won’t be the first port of call.
Out of possession, Thorup will expect his players to press from the front. The front three can be interchangeable, and will therefore have no problems leaving their positions to chase the man on the ball. As they have in recent weeks, Argyle may have some difficulty playing out from the back.
With a possession-based approach and a heavy press, Thorup plays football the way modern hipsters would hope. The style’s effectiveness is still up for debate.
Strengths
Curiously, Norwich have exactly the same goalscoring record as Argyle’s previous opponents Watford: 25 scored and 24 conceded. And much like the Hornets, many of Norwich’s positives this season have come in attack.
Argyle ought to be prepared for threats all over the field, and at any time. This isn’t a team who have padded their total goals number with set pieces or penalties. In fact, Norwich have scored 23 of their 25 goals this season from open play – only Leeds have scored more. At their best, Norwich’s patterns of play can be tough to deal with for even the best defences in the division.
There’s underlying data too that demonstrates just how deadly Norwich can be from open play. Norwich have had 40 Opta-defined big goalscoring chances this season, and again it’s only Leeds United who have more. It’s exactly the same story with through balls, with Leeds (18) the only team to have completed more than Norwich (15) across the campaign.
And, when they get themselves into a dangerous position, they generally find the finish. I’m not going to pretend Norwich put away every big chance that comes their way, but their shooting is generally excellent. Their shot accuracy this season currently sits at 36%, the third-highest figure in the division. It’s an even better story with shot conversion, with Sunderland the only team in the Championship to beat Norwich’s total of 13%.
Obviously, the entire side have to contribute to create chances with such regularity, and one player can’t be responsible for those shooting numbers alone. If I were to look for a particularly dangerous individual in Norwich’s ranks though, it’d be impossible to look at anyone other than Sainz. To put it in terms we’ll all understand, he’s currently having a remarkably similar start to the campaign as Morgan Whittaker did last season.
The main headline is that he’s already scored 11 league goals. That’s enough to make him the top scorer in the Championship, one ahead of West Brom’s Josh Maja and four clear of any other challenger. Now, those 11 goals have come from 6.41 xG, making him the biggest individual xG overperformer in the league, so as we’ve seen with Whittaker you’d expect to see a regression towards the mean at some stage. Right now though, Sainz is on a hot streak, and you wouldn’t bet against that run continuing on Tuesday night.
Sainz reminds me so much of Whittaker in the way he shoots on sight. He’s taken 50 shots so far this season, which is actually more than anyone in the league and narrowly edges Whittaker himself (47) into second place. It means, as is often the case with Whittaker, his shots can be deadly from a wide range of areas. With three, Sainz has scored more goals from outside the box than anyone else in the league.
As well as those outstanding goal numbers, Sainz also contributes significantly to Norwich’s build-up play. He leads the club’s ranks for big chances created, and nobody in the league has attempted more dribbles. Sainz also ranks second for dribbles completed, just behind Millwall’s Romain Esse.
It’s not as simple as saying you’ll stop Norwich if you stop Sainz – we’ve seen from Whittaker this season that double marking a player can lead to space opening up elsewhere – but he’s clearly the biggest threat. He’s also part of an attack that most defences in the league have struggled to contain.
Argyle haven’t kept an away clean sheet this season, and I can’t see that changing anytime soon.
Weaknesses
There are reasons why a team with such a potent attack currently finds itself in the bottom half of the table. Admittedly, if we’re being charitable, we could mention that some of those are out of Thorup’s control. However, despite facing adversity in some areas, Norwich haven’t helped themselves by being somewhat of a soft touch.
This is a team built to play attractive football; whether it does is up for debate, but that will always be Thorup’s aim. Sometimes though, you have to battle, you have to win ugly, and you have to put your body on the line to get the points you feel you deserve. To my eye at least, Norwich haven’t shown they’re up for the fight of the Championship.
There are two key areas acting as examples. First of all, Norwich’s ground duel success of 46% is the lowest in the division. Secondly (and it is slightly related because they count as ground duels, but stick with me), Norwich’s tackling has been substandard. Having collectively won 254 tackles and been dribbled past 134 times, Norwich have an implied tackle success of 65%. Again, that’s the lowest figure in the league.
I’d also shine a light on their goalkeeping. Gunn is the undisputed number one, but George Long has deputised whenever the Scot has been injured. Neither has impressed with their shot stopping. Let’s take their prevented rate (post-shot xG faced divided by goals conceded) as an example. Of the 36 goalkeepers to have played in the Championship this season, both Gunn and Long rank in the bottom ten. It means Norwich are conceding goals most wouldn’t, and does nothing to fight the “soft touch” accusations.
Another factor at play is their mentality. Thorup’s team at their best may be able to play teams off the field with scintillating attacking football, but I’m not convinced by their resolve when they suffer a setback. That even applies to games in which they start well – no team in the league this season has dropped more points from winning positions than Norwich’s 15.
Every above point should act as encouragement to Argyle. For all their flaws, the Pilgrims are strong in ground duels, and have talented players who are willing to run at their opponents; I wouldn’t mind, for example, seeing Freddie Issaka start at Carrow Road. The instruction should be to get in the faces of the opposition, get involved in battles, and get shots away. It could bring significant benefits for the visitors.
Need more motivation? Well, consider the fact that this could be an excellent time to play Norwich. As I mentioned earlier, they haven’t been fully to blame for all of their shortcomings this season. Injuries have taken their toll, and could have had a significant impact on their current winless run.
Josh Sargent is the obvious example. When available, he provides the figurehead to Norwich’s attack. Whilst it’s still undeniably powerful, that attack hasn’t functioned in quite the same way in Sargent’s absence. There is also the hip injury suffered by Marcelino Nunez. His presence brings both talent and flexibility to the midfield, allowing Thorup to deploy different shapes with the same personnel as the situation demands. Having both Nunez and McLean absent in recent weeks was bound to have a huge impact.
When the winless run is combined with key injuries, it becomes clear why some Norwich fans are wondering when they’ll get their next win. A trip to Carrow Road is never easy, but it’d certainly be a tougher journey if Norwich were firing on all cylinders. In that sense, opportunity knocks for Argyle.
Prediction
Somebody’s run has to come to an end here. On one hand, Norwich could put their poor form to one side, secure their first win in eight, and get what they hoped would be a promotion campaign back on track. On the other, Argyle could finally get their first away win of the season, and pull further clear of the bottom three in the process.
I guess it ultimately depends on whose troubles run deeper. Is Norwich’s current run so troublesome that they’ll fail to win at home against arguably the league’s worst travellers? Or are Argyle so bad away from home that they’ll still lose, even when presented with a surprising opportunity to pick up a positive result?
Well, I’ve got my suspicions. 3-0 Norwich.