Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Watford

As Argyle return from their latest international break, Adam Price takes a look at the Friday night return.

There are some classic examples in sport where you can never be quite sure which version of a team you’re going to see. The first that springs to mind on an international stage is the Pakistan cricket team, though I’m sure there are plenty of examples closer to home. And these days, I think we can safely add “Plymouth Argyle after an international break” to the list.

At the start of the season, Argyle were struggling in just about every game. Then the international break arrived, and the Greens returned in scintillating style, outplaying all comers in front of their fervent home support. Another international break then arrived, and the team returned like they’d never met before. After a series of worrying performances, Argyle managed to escape from the run sitting just outside the relegation zone.

Here we are again, with Argyle resuming Championship action in front of the Sky Sports cameras on Friday night. Mercifully, it’ll be a home game, with Watford as the visitors. It was all set to be a battle of former Manchester United players on the sidelines, but Hornets boss Tom Cleverley managed to earn himself a touchline ban. Wayne Rooney will still be there though, and his side could do with a win.

Some of you may remember we’ve already previewed Watford this season, ahead of a Carabao Cup tie in August. We’ve got plenty more data to work with now though, and league fixtures always have a different feel to their cup equivalents. So, let’s take a proper look at Friday’s visitors, as Argyle embark on a key period of the campaign.

Style of play

One of Cleverley’s big successes since taking over at Vicarage Road has been his ability to win matches with a variety of formations. Last time out, he deployed a system with three at the back to secure a 1-0 victory over Oxford United. But Cleverley is not averse to lining up with a back four, as he did against Swansea City, and for a memorable 6-2 away win against Sheffield Wednesday.

A back three is Cleverley’s preferred option, and I suspect that’s what we’ll see from his side, not least because ideal right back option Festy Ebosele will miss out through suspension. The options for the defensive line contain “classic” centre backs such as Matthew Pollock and Ryan Porteous, a converted midfielder in Francisco Sierralta, and a “wide centre back” in Josh Morris who could sit on the right of a back three. Angelo Ogbonna looks to be a continuing injury absentee, whilst Daniel Bachmann is likely to get the nod in goal.

With a back three in place, I expect to see a 3-4-2-1 shape, similar to Steven Schumacher’s title-winning style of 2022-23. Across the “4” we’ll see two wing backs (likely to be Yasser Larouci on the left and Ryan Andrews on the right), and two central midfielders. That area is likely to include Edo Kayembe, scorer at Home Park last season, playing alongside one of Imran Louza, Pierre Dwomoh or ex-Premier League regular Moussa Sissoko. Tom Dele-Bashiru started the season in the starting lineup, but has been missing recently through injury.

Like Schumacher’s 3-4-2-1, plenty of onus is put on the two men behind the striker. Unlike Argyle’s previous opponents Derby County, Watford aren’t particularly fussed about getting the ball wide and crossing it into the box. Rather, they like to threaten their opponents through the centre, utilising their creativity and running at defences with regularity; only two teams in the Championship have attempted more dribbles this season than the Hornets.

Pleasingly for Cleverley, he has an abundance of talent in the key attacking midfield area. This most notably includes Giorgi Chakvetadze – he stood out during Georgia’s excellent run in Euro 2024, and has carried that form across to this season. He’s likely to be partnered with talented 21-year-old Kwadwo Baah, though Tom Ince provides a more experienced option.

That leaves just the striker, who will almost certainly be Vakoun Bayo after hitting form in recent weeks. Daniel Jebbison and Mamadou Doumbia provide alternative options, but are likely to be behind Bayo in the pecking order. There is also 19-year-old Rocco Vata, who arrived from Celtic over the summer, though it could well be the case that he’s more comfortable playing just off a strike partner.

Whilst we can’t guarantee Cleverley’s shape, a Schumacher-style approach seems the most likely. And with that, we generally know what to expect. It won’t necessarily be possession heavy (though Watford aren’t exactly uncomfortable on the ball), and the Argyle box won’t be peppered with crosses. When the attacking midfielders are on song though, the style can be seriously dangerous, and Argyle ought to be prepared.

Strengths

Of all the aspects of their game, Watford’s attack has impressed me the most. We saw in August’s cup game how dangerous Watford can be going forward – despite an early howler, Dan Grimshaw was arguably Argyle’s man of the match, making several key saves to keep the scoreline respectable. Whilst league lineups tend to differ, I expect that strength to remain in place.

Statistically, Watford have one of the most dangerous attacks in the division. In the simplest terms, they’ve had 34 big chances in their 15 league games, with only four teams in the Championship having more. And they’ve been converting them well too; Watford’s total of 14 big chances scored has given them a big chance conversion rate of 41%. Only three teams in the league have posted a better figure.

Watford’s attacking proficiency is reflected in their expected goals figures. Their total xG number of 22.58 is topped only by Middlesbrough and Leeds United across the division. Admittedly, Watford’s number has been inflated by the fact that nobody has had more penalties, with 3.16 of their total xG figure (14%) coming from spot kicks alone. Still, the Hornets’ open play xG in isolation ranks fifth in the league. They’ll threaten Argyle – the numbers suggest it’d be a shock if they didn’t.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the attack is the number of players who positively contribute. Sure, there are some standout individuals (and we’ll come onto those in a moment), but there are a significant number of threats throughout the side. That’s perhaps best demonstrated by the fact that 11 different players have scored a league goal for Watford this season, with only three teams sitting above them in that ranking with 12. After three different players scored Watford’s three goals at Home Park last season, Argyle will need to be prepared for a similar onslaught.

If I had to pick some particularly dangerous individuals, Bayo would be high on the list. He has the second-highest individual xG figure in the league this season, with his total of 6.60 beaten only by Josh Maja (8.26). The West Bromwich Albion man has played significantly more minutes.

Bayo is an interesting case. He’s underperforming against his xG figure, and only three players in the league have missed more big chances. But when he’s is on song, few can stop him. Ask Sheffield Wednesday – on the same day as Argyle failed to register a single shot in Leeds, Bayo was also in Yorkshire, notching an astonishing four-goal haul at Hillsborough. Argyle must ensure they’re not sunk by a similar performance.

Then there’s Chakvetadze. If this is a Schumacher-style system, the Georgian is the Finn Azaz. He ranks fifth in the league for big chances created, and third for key passes. Those figures suggest he probably deserves more than his three assists this season, and I’m sure that figure will improve. Like Azaz, he’s also able to chip in with outstanding goals, such as his free kick against Millwall on opening day.

I’ve spoken at length about Watford’s attacking prowess, so let me leave you with this: the Hornets are the only side in the league not to have dropped a single point from a winning position this season. For all sorts of reasons, Argyle could do with opening the scoring on Friday night.

Weaknesses

Watford’s games tend to be open. Of course, their powerful attack helps with that, but at the other end they’re giving away many more chances than Cleverley would like.

Let’s look at big chances again. In the last section I praised the way Watford get themselves in front of goal and create scoring opportunities, and their total of 34 big chances is objectively impressive. Contextually though, it seems somewhat less impressive when you consider that Watford have conceded 49 big chances this season, more than anybody else in the league.

Watford sit sixth in the league despite this deficiency, and I think they’ve been fortunate that their opponents have been profligate. Of the 49 big chances Watford have faced, 37 have been missed, amounting to a conversion rate of 24%. That’s one of the lower figures in the league, and if Watford’s opponents had even finished their chances at an average rate, their start to the season may look very different.

Argyle should take huge confidence from these numbers. Rooney’s side have plenty of issues of their own, but they tend to be clinical in front of goal, with their 35% shot accuracy the fourth-highest number in the Championship this term. It’s highly likely they’ll be able to create chances against Watford, and if they do they’ll trust themselves to find the finish.

Watford tend to ship chances through some disappointing work on the ground. That includes their tackling, where the Hornets have struggled across the campaign. They’ve made 245 tackles and been dribbled past on 115 occasions, giving them an implied tackle success of 68%. Only Norwich City and Portsmouth have posted a lower number.

Again, those figures should encourage Argyle, with dribbles, tackles and ground duels having the potential to be a key differential. Argyle’s ground duel success this season is 52%, with Watford sitting on 48%. Instinctively, those figures may seem very similar, but Argyle’s number is enough to rank them fourth across the Championship. Watford rank 20^th.

Cleverley’s side have also been conceding chances they really shouldn’t be, with individual mistakes accounting for several of the big chances mentioned above. Only Middlesbrough (six) have made more mistakes leading directly to goals this season than Watford’s four. And when you consider that Watford have separately made five mistakes leading to shots (only three teams have made more), a picture starts to emerge of a side who can be pressed into errors.

There is another variable to consider: Watford are notoriously slow starters. They’ve scored once in the first 15 minutes of their games this season, accounting for 4% of their total goal tally. At the other end it’s a completely different story. The Hornets have shipped seven goals in the opening 15 minutes, accounting for an eye-watering 32% of their total. They may grow into games, but you can absolutely get at them early.

All of the above leads to a simple and familiar message: Argyle must play the game on their own terms. Keep the ball on the floor, win your individual battles and press from minute one, and you’ll inevitably create chances against this Watford side. And if your strikers are on song, you may well score a hatful.

Prediction

Watford play a remarkably open style of football. Argyle struggle to keep the ball out of their net, but have only failed to score once at home since the start of April. It’d be a dereliction of duty if I didn’t suggest we’ll see goals at both ends on Friday night.

Who’ll score the most is trickier to foresee. Given Watford have already beaten Argyle this season, I may be inclined to lean in their favour, but Home Park presents a very different challenge. Watford have dropped just two points at home all season, but have lost six out of eight away.

Will that be enough to swing things Argyle’s way? I’m still not sure, so I’m going to sit on the fence and predict a score draw. 2-2.