Michael Obafemi: What to Expect?
Adam Price assesses Argyle's newest striking option, after the loanee filled the fourth of Argyle's five available loan slots.
Picture the scene: I’m sitting down on Thursday evening fairly satisfied. I’ve just previewed Plymouth Argyle’s trip to Loftus Road to play Queens Park Rangers, and both squads look locked in and ready to do battle on Saturday lunchtime. As I settled down for the night with a hot chocolate (God I sound old), Argyle threw us a curveball. A new player had joined up with the travelling squad, as Michael Obafemi signed for the Pilgrims on loan from Burnley.
Obafemi’s arrival has piqued the interest of many fans, and it’s easy to see why they’re excited. He’s made a significant number of appearances at Championship level and higher, is already a proven international with Ireland, and brings a level of quality I think many have been longing for throughout the transfer window.
There are a couple of burning questions to ask. How much of an impact can Obafemi have this season? And where does he fit in to a squad looking somewhat overloaded in the attacking areas? Let’s investigate.
Proven quality
As I touched on above, much of the enthusiasm surrounding Obafemi comes from his pedigree, which is a strange thing to say for a player with much of his career ahead of him. At the age of 24 though, Obafemi has already done plenty to give the impression that his signing could prove quite the coup.
Many will have first become aware of him during a spell at Southampton. He made is professional debut for the Saints back in 2018, and aged only 17 he became the club’s second-youngest Premier League player (behind only Luke Shaw). He’d later become the youngest player to score a Premier League goal for the club. He ended up playing 34 top flight games for Southampton, albeit with most coming from the bench, scoring four league goals.
He eventually moved to Swansea City for a seven-figure fee, and had an impressive spell. So much so that he was regularly pursued by Burnley, who were aiming to sign him to aid Vincent Kompany’s promotion push. They eventually did, in a loan-to-buy deal worth a reported £3 million. And whilst that Burnley spell hasn’t been successful (not yet, anyway), Obafemi still has an encouraging second tier goalscoring record.
Across his career, Obafemi has scored 19 goals in the Championship. That compares very favourably to Argyle’s squad; only Morgan Whittaker has scored more at this level with 23 (20 for Argyle, two for Swansea and one for Derby County). On Thursday evening, Argyle’s squad had collectively scored 56 Championship goals in their respective careers. Quite literally overnight, Obafemi’s arrival pushed that figure up to 75. Whittaker made it 76 in stunning style at Loftus Road.
That significant increase marks a key moment in Argyle’s window. We can have plenty of debates about successful signings relative to level, but it must be a very long time since Argyle signed someone who was already a proven Championship goalscorer. Obafemi is here now, and if he can reach the heights he has in the past (particularly during his Swansea days) he’ll surely score plenty of vital goals for the Pilgrims across the campaign.
Neil Dewsnip mentioned after Obafemi’s arrival that Argyle had “beaten off several Championship sides” to secure his signature. I imagine the majority were interested based on his goalscoring record. Such players are hard to find, and even harder to sign. You can therefore tell why this deal brought such joy to the Argyle hierarchy and fanbase.
The Millwall spell
We ought to look at Obafemi’s most recent spell in the Championship. As I touched on, his move to Burnley hasn’t really worked out thus far, to the extent that he spent the second half of last season on loan at Millwall. And contrary to the way I’ve built him up in the previous section, he didn’t have the best of times.
The headline is the fact he only scored two goals. Immediately, I’m minded to mention that caveats apply. Millwall were flirting with relegation for much of the campaign, naturally meaning that Obafemi wouldn’t have had as many goalscoring chances as he may have liked. That would have been compounded by working under Neil Harris, for whom structure and physicality matter more than fluid attacking. A 5 ft 7 striker was probably on a hiding to nothing.
Still, Obafemi’s exploits in front of goal did only amount to 0.19 goals per 90 minutes. It’s a relatively small sample size for each, but that’s a lower number that the likes of Mustapha Bundu (0.28) and Luke Cundle (0.22) managed for Argyle in the league last term, and barely edges out Ben Waine (0.195 vs 0.189). A more attacking style under Rooney may help, but Obafemi simply must improve on that number to be successful.
It’s not exactly as though he made up for his lack of goals with any creativity. Yes, he completed more passes per 90 than both Waine and Ryan Hardie last season (Bundu, occasionally playing as a winger, was a fair way clear), but in terms of key passes Obafemi actually lagged behind all three of Argyle’s striking options.
There’s also the fact he won nothing in the air during his spell at The Den. Given his diminutive stature, at least compared to the average Championship centre back, that’s hardly surprising. Still, his 10% aerial duel success rate was paltry; if Argyle intend to utilise a direct game with Obafemi on the field, they better ensure he’s given a strike partner. He actually held up the ball quite well in his QPR cameo, but it’s not something we can expect regularly.
I’ve laboured the point; Obafemi’s spell at Millwall was unsuccessful. There are caveats though, and I’m suitably convinced that Argyle’s style of play will suit him more than Millwall’s. The Greens could certainly do with the version of Obafemi that did so well at Swansea, rather than the one that flattered to deceive in Bermondsey.
Another rough diamond
There are a few things we need to discuss on Obafemi that can’t be covered by stats alone. Across his career, and particularly in the last couple of years, he’s been blighted by rumours surrounding his attitude, and it’s possibly not a coincidence that his performances have suffered as a result.
His spell at Millwall provides an example. He ended up missing the Lions’ final game of the season (against former club Swansea) for disciplinary reasons, with manager Harris saying “I’m building a culture and an environment at the football club. Players will only be involved at my football club, when I’m in charge, if they hit those standards. It’s all about culture and environment.” Whatever Obafemi did was enough to fall foul of the moral standards of MILLWALL. I dread to think of the sort of crime necessary for such an outcome.
And that’s not the only example. When Burnley first unsuccessfully tried to sign him from Swansea, Obafemi was guilty of what I’m going to call the “want-away player sulk” in order to force through a move. When the deal collapsed, he struggled for a while to reintegrate. Then-manager Russell Martin said “he’ll be back in the team when he earns the right to be in the team, and the squad." Obafemi left in the next window.
Considering the above, I’m wondering if this provides an explanation as to why Argyle have managed to secure his services. Because let’s remember where we stand; realistically we’re punching well above our weight, and at this level there are bigger clubs with bigger budgets. A player with 19 Championship goals and a squeaky-clean attitude would probably have many more options to advance their career.
Obafemi is the sort of player who could be crudely described as “damaged goods,” or more reasonably as a “rough diamond.” He is evidently talented, and on talent alone his level is probably above a Championship relegation fight. But in recent times he hasn’t been making the most of that talent.
It isn’t the first time Argyle have played the market in such fashion, signing players with off-field issues or injury proneness they probably wouldn’t have been in the conversation for in other circumstances. And it’s brought varying degrees of prosperity. Luke McCormick was a roaring success after rejoining, whilst David Goodwillie was an unmitigated disaster. Jose Baxter didn’t pull up any trees, but given his role in getting Argyle to (and staying in) the Championship, I’d argue Brendan Galloway has been a superb signing despite his injury record.
That’ll be the hope for Argyle. If Obafemi hits the heights we know he can, the Pilgrims will have a gem on their hands; working with one of the country’s best ever goalscorers could be just the tonic he needs to reignite his career. Let’s hope Rooney can work his magic.
Shape of the squad
As with any signing, it’s always worth looking at how the new arrival helps shape the squad. And as things stand, Argyle’s crop of players looks somewhat bloated in attack.
Alongside Obafemi, the Greens have Hardie, Waine and Muhamed Tijani who can play as a striker. That’s before we even consider Bundu – Rooney may not see him as a striker, and he may be more comfortable on the wing, but he’s filled in up front when required in the past.
Now that wouldn’t necessarily a problem if Rooney’s so-called “4-4-2” involved two genuine strikers. Very quickly though, we’ve discovered that isn’t the case. One standard striker is partnered with a ‘shadow striker,’ or even a classic ‘number 10,’ with Darko Gyabi taking the position against QPR.
That means that something will surely have to change, because four into one doesn’t go. And as far as I see it, one of three things could potentially happen.
One option would be to change the system to accommodate two genuine strikers. That could be done by switching either to an old-fashioned 4-4-2, or a 3-5-2 which is arguably still better suited to the rest of the squad. That’d allow all four strikers to get the playing time they desire, whilst still allowing for rotation and different partnerships for different opponents.
Failing that, there has been a school of thought that Obafemi himself has been signed to play in the ‘number 10’ position. He has played there occasionally before, and Rooney himself transformed into a midfielder later in his career. Honestly, I think that would be a mistake. The 10 in Rooney’s system needs to be creative, and the stats suggest Obafemi isn’t that sort of player. He’s a goalscorer, at his best playing as a striker, and that’s where he should stay.
That leaves one more option, and it’s probably the most likely: the idea that Argyle won’t go into the season with four genuine strikers, and one will be moved on. In theory that could be any of them – a late bid for Hardie cannot be ruled out – but I think it’s highly likely to involve Waine.
I’ve long been an advocate for a loan move for Waine, and still think it’d make total sense. We’re often guilty of treating Waine like a hopeful free transfer who hasn’t quite hit his stride. Let’s not forget, he’s just turned 23, and Argyle paid a six-figure sum to secure his services. A loan move would be beneficial in many ways, not least because it’d help secure Argyle’s investment.
Granted, this isn’t the worst headache in the world. Last year Argyle were often left painfully short up front, whereas now we’re complaining about having too many options. You’d much rather have things this way around. Still, I’d expect something to give; having as many as four players for one position feels like a waste of the budget, particularly when gaping holes remain in the midfield.
The good news is we should find out what does give very quickly. The final few days of the transfer window are upon us, and they’ll surely be fascinating.