Andre Gray: What to Expect?
Adam Price assesses the likely impact of Andre Gray as we look ahead to the next round of fixtures.
Is anybody getting a sense of déjà vu? In the last international break, a Plymouth Argyle player picked up an injury and was swiftly replaced by a free agent. Now, as we enter another fortnight without an Argyle fixture, exactly the same thing has occurred. In September it was a broken ankle for goalkeeper Conor Hazard that saw the emergency arrival of Marko Marosi. This time, striker Muhamed Tijani’s hamstring injury has seen Argyle swoop for 33-year-old Andre Gray.
Gray’s is a name that will be familiar to many fans across the country. He’s had success across the English football pyramid for the likes of Luton Town, Brentford and Burnley, before later spells with Watford and Queens Park Rangers. More recently, he’s spent a season apiece in Greece and Saudi Arabia with Aris Thessaloniki and Al-Riyadh respectively. And he’s made a mark at international level too, scoring thrice in 13 appearances for Jamaica.
Obviously, Gray is a player with immense pedigree, but at 33 is he still the sort of striker who can have a positive influence on Argyle’s season? Let’s investigate, taking his past and present into account, and try to come to a verdict.
Off the field
Given I’d love to focus on the football, I questioned for a while whether I should include this section. I do, however, think it’s important to tackle the issue straight off the bat. If you disagree or simply don’t care, please feel free to skip to the future sections, where I’ll talk exclusively about Gray the footballer rather than Gray the person.
Gray has hit the headlines for the wrong reasons on more than one occasion. Some may remember that, during his first season in the Premier League, he was suspended for four games by the FA. That was after historic tweets came to light that were racist, sexist and homophobic in nature. The contents of those tweets were reprehensible to any reasonable person’s standards.
And Gray didn’t just court controversy online. You may have noticed in his signing announcement that he has a significant scar on the left-side of his face. This was something he suffered as a result of being stabbed in a gang-related incident in 2011. Gray himself stated that he “was putting [himself] in certain situations where it was bound to happen.”
In short, the Gray of the early 2010s was not a good person. And to his credit, I believe this is something the man himself would be the first to admit. It does create a natural question though: is he the sort of person we want associated with the club?
There will be a range of views on the issue, many of which will carry merit. For some, Gray’s past behaviour is so beyond the pale that he should never again be put in a position to receive public adulation. For others, Gray has shown tremendous resolve to turn his life around, making him somewhat of a role model. Many opinions will sit somewhere in between; I don’t think presenting my personal view as correct here would be helpful, but as a whole it’s an issue that needs to be considered.
Gray isn’t the first player with off-field issues to sign for Argyle, and when he’s on the pitch the focus will be entirely on the football. I do, however, think it is something we should be thinking about, even if just for a moment. Each view is entirely the person’s own prerogative, so before I get into Gray’s abilities, just take a second for consideration: is this a signing you’re happy with on a personal level?
Goalscoring record
To the eye of many, the most exciting element of Gray’s arrival is his goalscoring record. He’s had a long career when compared with most of Argyle’s squad, so of course he’s had more opportunities to build up his tally over the years. Still, he’s shown he can be absolutely deadly at this level, and he’s shown it time and time again.
He first got his Championship chance with Brentford ten years ago, and had a huge impact. Having just been promoted, the Bees finished fifth, eventually being edged out by Middlesbrough in the play-offs. Gray was Brentford’s talisman across the season, scoring 16 league goals to propel his side up the table.
His efforts earned him a move to Burnley in the same division, for what was at the time a club-record deal for the Clarets. Gray immediately got to work on repaying that fee, eventually scoring 23 league goals to help Sean Dyche’s side secure an immediate return to the Premier League. He actually ended that season as the top scorer in the entire league, with a comfortable four-goal margin over Fulham’s Ross McCormack.
Having scored nine goals in his first season in the Premier League, he earned another club record move, this time to Watford. His time at Vicarage Road was somewhat mixed, although he still managed to score 14 top flight goals as a Hornet. After four years and with his Watford career winding down, Gray joined Queens Park Rangers on loan in the Championship and scored ten more goals. A similar return at Argyle would do very nicely indeed.
Ultimately, Gray has scored 56 Championship goals across the course of his career. That’s far more than anyone else in Argyle’s squad – it’s not too far away from being as many as the rest of the squad put together. You may remember in our analysis of Michael Obafemi I presented a chart displaying the Championship goals scored by Argyle players across their careers. Here’s the updated version, with Gray wiping the floor with the competition.
There is an obvious caveat that Gray may not be the player he was a decade ago. He was, for example, in the same Brentford team as Adam Forshaw when he first came into in the Championship. For that reason, I’d be concerned if Argyle had signed him to be their main striker. But they haven’t done that – they’ve signed him to provide competition, and he’ll initially start as third-choice. As free agents go, Argyle could hardly have signed a player with better Championship pedigree.
Quiet recent encouragement
I think we’ve established that Gray has made a significant impact in the second tier across his career. But what sort of player will Argyle be getting in the present day?
Well, the answer to that question may depend on how much weight you want to lend to the Saudi Pro League. “Not much,” I’d perhaps suggest, though I accept opinions may differ. Nonetheless, I’ve seen enough in his initial numbers to suggest he’s still kept some of the talents. And we can still assess the style of player he may prove to be from those numbers, a discussion that isn’t impacted quite so much by the league’s standard.
Gray’s tally of 10 goal contributions is solid enough, and was beaten last season at Argyle only by the familiar trio of Morgan Whittaker, Ryan Hardie and Finn Azaz. That consisted of seven goals and three assists, and those goals came at a highly impressive shot conversion rate of 23%. That would be enough to top Argyle’s charts from last season. Sure, against defenders in the Saudi Pro League he may have had more time to place those shots, but it demonstrates how clinical Gray can still be in front of goal.
I’ve also been impressed by how Gray brought his teammates into play. Last season he created seven big chances for Al-Riyadh, which equated to 0.31 big chances created per 90. That’s a strong figure, topped only by Azaz across Argyle’s ranks last term.
In possession, Gray appears to have the stylistic tendencies of Hardie, rather than Tijani who he’s theoretically come in to replace. For instance, Gray won a similar – but better – proportion of his aerial duels last season (46%, vs 40% for Hardie). He also looks like he enjoys playing on the shoulder of the last defender, having been caught offside at an almost identical rate (0.62 per 90 for Gray, 0.66 per 90 for Hardie).
Unlike Hardie, Gray does appear to be somewhat of a liability out of possession. He completed a significantly lower number of defensive actions last season than his Argyle counterpart, and his ground duel success rate came in at a paltry 33%. Only Lewis Warrington, who played a grand total of 55 league minutes, had a lower success rate at Argyle last season. Gray’s age may contribute to a lower level of pressing, but it’s certainly worth noting.
Overall though, I’m quietly encouraged. Whether Gray can readapt to a more intense league at this stage of his career will be crucial to his success, but he doesn’t seem like a totally washed-up striker. He still has talent, and will see his spell at Argyle as an opportunity to reestablish himself in the English game. Let’s hope it’s one he takes.
Future prospects
I’m always taken aback when I consider the difference between Argyle’s attacking options from now and last season. This time last year, Argyle found themselves prohibitively reliant on Hardie. When the Scot was injured, the Greens found themselves having to choose between an out of position Mustapha Bundu or a woefully undercooked Ben Waine.
The transformation today is almost hard to believe. Hardie is of course still around, but he’s now been joined by two strikers with immense Championship pedigree in Obafemi and Gray. Bundu is still present if Argyle get desperate, and in the new year Tijani’s injury issues should theoretically be a thing of the past. From next to nothing, Argyle now possess an embarrassment of riches in the striker department.
Naturally, there is a danger of going too far in the other direction. If Gray is still at the club when Tijani makes his recovery, there will be four players competing for one position in the side. That’d increase to five if you include Bundu, although I think it’s become clear that Wayne Rooney sees him primarily as a winger. Four/five into one simply doesn’t go, and it’s clear Argyle will have some decisions to make in the foreseeable future.
Of course, the Pilgrims have recognised this by giving Gray a short-term contract until January and, when the New Year arrives, I suspect one of two things will happen. On one hand, Gray could simply fail to impress, and his contract won’t be renewed. On the other, Argyle could look at Tijani’s injury record and conclude that the deal just hasn’t worked out, terminate his loan, and offer Gray an extended deal.
I suspect a striker will leave Argyle this winter. Gray has three months to ensure it won’t be him.