Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Sunderland

Fresh from the international break, Adam Price looks at Argyle's encounter with the league leaders.

As an odd soul who enjoys international football, I may have to admit to a slight degree of bias. But wasn’t it nice to go through a weekend that wasn’t ruined by Plymouth Argyle?

Ok, that may have been a little hyperbolic. There have been signs of intent at Wayne Rooney’s Argyle, even if the execution hasn’t quite matched those levels. Still, the results haven’t been promising, and Rooney remains without a league win after his first four games. It feels like it’d be an awful time for the league leaders to come to town. As it happens, Argyle play early pacesetters Sunderland on Saturday.

Under new manager Regis Le Bris, Sunderland look a side totally transformed from the one that ended last season so meekly after appointing @Player_id Mick Beale. They top the league having won all four games and conceded just a single goal, and even that was a late consolation as the Black Cats defeated Portsmouth 3-1 a fortnight ago. Will they have the ability to continue that run at Home Park this weekend?

Style of play

It’s still early on in the season, so we may need to wait and see if Le Bris’ style has been truly effective. Right now though, he looks to be doing what every manager should: exacerbating the strengths of his squad whilst negating the weaknesses.

Going into the season, many of Sunderland’s strongest attacking threats were wingers. Le Bris has played on this, aiming to get them on the ball as much as possible. Jack Clarke looked as though he’d leave a gaping hole on the left when he departed for Ipswich Town, but that’s been filled magnificently thus far by former Argyle target Romaine Mundle. Patrick Roberts will bring a significant threat on the other flank.

Le Bris has also known he can rely on a dynamic midfield. Over the four games this has taken a few forms, and at Home Park I imagine he’ll trust a double pivot, making the general shape of 4-2-3-1 very similar to Rooney’s own system.

Captain Dan Neil was suspended for the visit to Portsmouth last time around, and I suspect he’ll come straight back into the side. He’ll probably be partnered in the deep midfield position by either Alan Browne or Jobe Bellingham, though both can offer something in the more advanced midfield role if Le Bris wants to rest 17-year-old Chris Rigg after international duty.

For the first four games, the attack has been linked together up front by Eliezer Mayenda. He’s not exactly been a prolific goalscorer thus far in his career (though aged just 19 he has plenty of time to change that), but Le Bris has been rewarded for trusting him to lead the line. Mayenda scored twice in Sunderland’s crushing 4-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday, and got two assists against Portsmouth.

Further back, left back Dennis Cirkin, right back Trai Hume and goalkeeper Anthony Patterson have started every league game, and I’d expect to seem them do so again. The same is also true of centre back Luke O’Nien, although he’s had different partners in Dan Ballard and Aji Alese. I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Nien was partnered by Chris Mepham at Home Park, following his deadline day arrival on loan from AFC Bournemouth.

Mepham isn’t the only deadline day signing who could be in line for a first appearance. Midfielders Salis Abdul Samed and Milan Aleksic, as well as forward Ahmed Abdullahi all arrived in the dying embers of the transfer window, and will be looking to make an impact as the season progresses. It’s not out of the question that they’ll be thrown in on Saturday.

Whoever starts, Sunderland will make it their ambition to hurt Argyle with swift attacking. Ranking only 21^st in the league for touches at this early stage, they don’t strike me as the sort of side who will keep possession in deep areas. And they’re likely to attack directly through the middle, having attempted fewer crosses that any team in the league (though their above average success rate of 31% suggests that, when they do look to cross, they do so effectively).

Sunderland’s passing will be high risk, aiming to maximise danger for opponents with the goal of transforming them into a constant threat. As four teams have already found out in the Championship this season, when it works it can be mightily effective.

Strengths

We’re four games into a 46-game season, so it’s impossible to say whether the early league leaders will be able to sustain their form for the remainder of the campaign. Focusing on the here and now though, Sunderland sit top of the league, and it would appear they do so deservedly.

Winning every league game whilst scoring the joint-highest number of goals, and conceding the fewest, are all hallmarks of a team heading in the right direction. And it goes deeper than that; Sunderland also lead the expected points table, and are the only team in the Championship not to have fallen behind in a game for a single minute all season. Early days of course, but hugely encouraging signs.

When assessing exactly why Sunderland have started the season so strongly, I’m drawn to the way they defend. I know in the previous section I praised how Sunderland go forward, with their high-risk passing and energetic attacking being highly threatening, but this style is only allowed to flourish when you’re solid defensively. Sunderland have been. Not necessarily because they complete a high number of defensive actions, but because they’ve been excellent at limiting their opponents’ goalscoring chances.

Sunderland have faced 31 shots this season, with only Leeds United and Middlesbrough facing fewer. For their part, Argyle have faced nearly treble that figure, with 90 shots against them across the first four games. And those 31 shots haven’t exactly been from dangerous positions, with only 18 being from inside the Sunderland box. That means 58% of the shots the Black Cats have faced have been from inside the box, again the third-lowest figure in the league. By comparison, 83% of the shots Argyle have faced have been from within their own penalty area.

Given all of that, it’s perhaps not surprising that Sunderland rank strongly for expected goals against. They’ve had 1.90 xG against them thus far this season, comfortably the lowest number in the league with Leeds the next best at 2.56. To put that into perspective, Argyle have faced more xG PER GAME this season (2.31) than Sunderland have in total across their four fixtures.

So we’ve established that it’s difficult to create opportunities against Sunderland. That may be the case for Argyle in particular, who remain the only team in the Championship without a single big chance all season (every other side has had at least three). But even if you do create an opening, in Patterson you still need to beat one of the league’s better goalkeepers.

So far this year Patterson has conceded just the once, and that’s whilst facing 2.06 post-shot xG. It’s extending an impressive record last season, when post-shot xG data suggests he prevented 6.07 goals, with a prevented rate (post-shot xG faced divided by goals conceded) of 1.12. That’s in the same conversation as Michael Cooper for shot stopping.

In fact, the only player to beat Patterson so far this season was his own, as O’Nien nodded in a late own goal at Fratton Park.

Generally speaking, Sunderland are good at keeping their opponents at arm’s length. And that may come as a surprise; given the onus on the midfielders to influence both ends of the field, a 4-2-3-1 isn’t always associated with sturdy defending. When assessing why it’s worked, I think we have to praise the way Sunderland have built their squad.

There is a tremendous amount of energy in this side, characterised by their youthfulness. Weighted for minutes played, the average age of Sunderland’s team this season has been 22.82, far more youthful than second-youngest Leeds (24.00). To demonstrate that difference, there is actually more of a gap here between Sunderland and Leeds than there is between Leeds and Argyle, the ninth-youngest team in the league.

That means they’ll be able to cover far more of the pitch than many of their counterparts. They could run rings around less mobile opponents, and the thought of Adam Forshaw starting here has given me nightmares. I’d much prefer to see a more dynamic midfield duo of Adam Randell and Darko Gyabi, but if Sunderland are on song even that may not be enough.

Weaknesses

Naturally, it’s difficult to poke holes in a team boasting a 100% record in the league, no matter how early in the season we find ourselves. If I had to pinpoint something though, I’d perhaps suggest Sunderland aren’t the best tacklers in the league.

Collectively, Sunderland have been dribbled past 36 times this season, with only Portsmouth (41) posting a higher figure. Given their relatively low number of tackles, this gives Sunderland an implied tackle success of 63%; again, only Pompey have been worse. This could be due to a few factors – perhaps the midfield shape allows for plenty of gaps for opponents to run into – but it’s a notable weakness whatever the reason.

With Morgan Whittaker and ex-Sunderland man Bali Mumba in their side, Argyle should fancy their chances of exploiting this weakness. And if Ibrahim Cissoko is finally able to play a full 90 minutes in an Argyle shirt, this could be the perfect game. If not, I may find myself bemoaning Freddie Issaka’s continued suspension.

More generally, we need to consider whether Sunderland’s start is sustainable. They’ve undoubtedly been superb so far, but I think it’s fair to say their early season form has come as a surprise to many. I’m not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but we do have to consider the possibility that the Black Cats’ pre-international break form may have been a flash in the pan.

Allow me to use some more stats as an example. I’ve praised Sunderland’s defending this season, and they’ve also been aided going forward by scoring from 18% of their shots. A good early figure indeed (the league’s fourth-highest currently), but not something that can be sustained across a season. It’s also totally at odds with Sunderland’s figure from last season, with their 8% shot conversion rate the worst in the entire division.

That could come back to bite them. Natural improvement and Le Bris’ training methods may have part to play, but it’s not as though Sunderland have fixed this issue with a wealth of attacking additions. By and large, they still have the same attackers who posted such a paltry shot conversion figure last season. An optimist may suggest that the international break will have disrupted their rhythm, and they’ll find it trickier to find the back of the net at Home Park.

I do also just want to touch on Sunderland’s youthful squad again. As I’ve said, it’s worthy of praise; it helps Le Bris’ style work, and it holds the club in good stead for the future. However, with a young squad you can often find yourself treading a fine line. It can be exciting and energetic when things are going well, but feel woefully lacking in experience in the midst of a struggle.

I think it’d be reasonable to argue that Sunderland haven’t had to bounce back from any adversity during Le Bris’ reign. We’ll have to wait and see whether they he and his side can deal with things not going their way, but the signs from last season aren’t terrific. Sunderland crumbled under Beale and couldn’t even recover after his departure, eventually ending in 16^th place and only six points away from the relegation zone.

I’m not wholly bothered about Sunderland’s prospects for the season as a whole (sorry, Black Cats fans). Whatever happens though, their mentality will be key, and that mentality needs testing. They’re yet to trail in the league all season; if Argyle get themselves into the lead on Saturday, will we see Sunderland start to fall apart as they did last term?

Prediction

The nature of this sport means that the predictable isn’t necessarily as certain as it seems. A team in red-hot form won’t always dominate against a side struggling for points, and even if they do, the better team doesn’t always come away with the win.

It’s rarely a good time to play the league leaders, or a side with four wins on the bounce in any circumstances. With two weeks to prepare though, Argyle may sense an opportunity. Football is seldom this simple, but to use an old cliche, the Pilgrims are due a win and Sunderland are due a defeat.

I can definitely see a world where Argyle have a chance in this encounter. That’ll be particularly true if the Greens can get their runners into the game, and it’d certainly help if Sunderland went back to their wasteful ways of last season.

But ultimately, I have to let head rule heart on this occasion. Le Bris is in command of a side whose strengths outweigh their weaknesses, and the most likely outcome is a comfortable away win. 2-0 Sunderland.