Preview: Plymouth Argyle vs Stoke

Adam Price assesses Argyle's chances as Steven Schumacher makes his first return to Home Park.

For much of clubs’ respective histories, Plymouth Argyle against Stoke City has rarely been seen as a grudge match. 240 miles separate the two clubs, and they’ve been in different divisions at various points over the years. In December last year, everything changed.

Struggling and in an unwelcome relegation battle under Alex Neil, Stoke decided a change was necessary. In fact, they concluded the only way to be more successful was to become Plymouth Argyle. Not only did they steal Pilgrims manager Steven Schumacher, they also raided Argyle for coaches, took some players and nabbed a memeable amount of transfer targets. And let’s not forget that Argyle were above Stoke in the league table when this grubby process began.

This weekend marks Schumacher’s first return to Home Park since his abrupt departure last winter. Will his team show the Green Army what they’ve been missing? Or will Wayne Rooney’s Argyle have enough to send Schumacher and crew back to Staffordshire with their tails between their legs?

Style of play

This is a Schumacher team, and given his reputation for tinkering during his time at Argyle, it’s no surprise that predicting the lineup is akin to drawing names out of a hat. That has occasionally been the case with the formation too; Schumacher had three different first-choice formations across three different seasons at Home Park. Based on Stoke’s recent selections though, it looks like he’ll stick with the same shape as when the two sides faced off in April: 4-2-3-1.

As with most 4-2-3-1 styles, Stoke rely on the player in the ‘number 10’ position to be creative. And yes, that is meant as a hint towards Argyle – hopefully by the time you’re reading this the Greens have finally brought in the creative midfielder we’ve craved all summer.

In Stoke’s 3-0 win at the back end of last season, a familiar face in Luke Cundle took on the role. For the first few games of this season, Wouter Burger has played in the position, which comes as somewhat of a surprise given he’s far better starting from a deeper midfield position.

I suspect he will indeed drop into the midfield two this weekend alongside Jordan Thompson – Josh Laurent, who has played alongside Thompson in all three league games so far, is widely expected to join Burnley. Indeed, it turns out the Clarets do have money to make offers for the players they want – who knew?!

I would then expect Bae Jun-ho to take over in the number 10 role, and recent selections would suggest a front three of Lynden Gooch on the left, Million Manhoef on the right and Lewis Koumas through the middle. Although, Schumacher may be keen to reward some of those who played in Stoke’s thumping 5-0 League Cup win against Middlesbrough in midweek. Ryan Mmaee and Emre Tezgel both scored, whilst Andrew Moran played as the number 10.

As well as that number 10, Schumacher’s system at Stoke puts a great deal of onus on the full backs to get forward and create chances. You may recall Ki-Jana Hoever having a storming game from the right back position when these sides last met. He hasn’t returned for a second spell after being on loan last season, but Junior Tchamadeu is an exciting young talent who will probably get the nod to start. Eric Bocat feels like a certain starter on the left.

In the centre of defence, we’ll find even more familiar names. Former Argyle loanee Ben Gibson was brought in this summer, and has thus far started every league game alongside Ben Wilmot. Still, it’s not out of the question that yet another former Argyle loanee will start, with Ashley Phillips potentially in line for his league debut after starting in midweek. Victor Johansson, recruited from Rotherham United over the summer, will continue in goal.

As Argyle supporters, we know more than most about how Schumacher teams operate. The transitions will be swift and dynamic, and attack will be preferred over defence. But we’re also well aware that a surprise is never too far away.

Strengths

Given that neither the manager nor system have changed over the summer, it’s perhaps not a surprise that many of Stoke’s strengths from last season have carried over to the current campaign.

For example, before the sides locked horns in April, I covered some of Stoke’s strengths out of possession. Last year they made a total of 461 interceptions, the fifth-highest figure in the league. Early on this season they’ve also completed the fifth-highest number of interceptions with 28. I’ll add my standard caveat that it’s too early to pass judgments on this season’s data alone, but compared with last season’s figures they do paint a picture of a trend continuing in this area.

That has the potential to harm Argyle. I think back to the Pilgrims’ games last season against Preston North End, who completed more interceptions than any other team in the Championship. Those games were generally frustrating affairs, with Argyle often playing beautiful, delicate football (at least the first time around) but failing to create an opening, the final ball just being cut out before a big chance could be created. Preston took advantage by beating Argyle in both games; Stoke will be looking to replicate that success this weekend.

Schumacher’s Stoke also appear to have carried over their proficiency for last-ditch defending. Last season the Potters made a total of 11 goal-line clearances. That was the highest number by a team in the Championship by quite a comfortable margin, with no other side reaching double figures. This season, they’re on track to complete even more.

In their three league games so far, Stoke have already completed three goal-line clearances. To add some more perspective, only four have been made in the league as a whole, meaning 75% of the goal-line clearances in the Championship this season have been completed by Stoke. That record obviously won’t last, but it does demonstrate that Schumacher’s side are still willing to put their bodies on the line to keep the ball out of their net. Combined with their proficiency for interceptions, it’s something else that may cause Argyle a frustrating afternoon, and patience could be key.

To ensure I don’t just spend this time rehashing my preview from April, I will touch on one more strength I’ve identified in Stoke’s side, and this time it’s in attack. Many of their forward players are versatile, and at their best they have a frontline that can interchange and cause defenders all sorts of headaches.

As I mentioned earlier, recent selections suggest Stoke will line up with Bae Jun-ho as the number 10 with a front three of Gooch on the left, Manhoef on the right and Koumas through the middle, notwithstanding any Schuey roulette or late transfer window arrivals. However, I think it’d be a fair argument that any one of those players could play in any one of the listed positions.

Bae Jun-ho is a good example. He won Stoke’s player of the year award last season, mainly for his performances as an attacking midfielder, but has also been known to play on either flank. Koumas has started up front but is probably a winger by trade. Manhoef is most comfortable on the right but has been known to switch wings.  Last season he popped up on the left-hand side of the penalty area to fire in Stoke’s second against Argyle.

What that can mean is that the front line can interchange constantly, with any of the attackers able to pick up the ball anywhere in the final third and still be effective. In that sense the official positions can be nominal, like describing Bali Mumba as a “defender” against Queens Park Rangers when he spent much of the first 30 minutes in an attacking midfield position. Such an attack won’t always function perfectly, and specialists in each position may be preferable on occasion, but when it clicks it can be absolutely deadly – just ask Middlesbrough.

I dread to think what may happen if Saturday’s result is anything like the 5-0 Stoke achieved in midweek.

Weaknesses

Stoke are inconsistent. It’s a fine trait when your goal is to scramble together enough points to escape relegation, but the hierarchy at the bet365 clearly have loftier ambitions. That inconsistency, therefore, is a problem.

Already this season, we’ve seen an indication that Stoke may struggle to put a string of good results together. They started the campaign with an encouraging 1-0 win over Coventry City, who many expected to be in the promotion picture before a ball was kicked. They couldn’t follow it up though, losing 3-0 to Watford in their first away trip of the season, and putting in a performance arguably worse than Argyle’s in their recent trip to Vicarage Road.

When Stoke got back in front of their own fans but could only muster up a 2-1 defeat against West Bromwich Albion, alarm bells may have been ringing with a difficult outing in the cup to come. They then travelled up to Middlesbrough and played Michael Carrick’s side off the park, the 5-0 victory demonstrating how a Schumacher side at its best can operate. It is not, however, an indication of how they’ll play every week.

In many ways, this inconsistency comes as no surprise. Cast your mind back to the first half of last season. Under Schumacher, Argyle couldn’t buy a win away from home, but picked up enough wins in front of their own fans to keep their heads above water. They were inconsistent, but just about effective. Even in the title winning season, Argyle weren’t necessarily terrific every week (remember the 5-2 defeat in Peterborough?), but much was made of the fact that the Greens never lost two League One games in succession under Schumacher’s stewardship.

This is where Stoke could come unstuck this season. For a club with their ambitions (and with their budget), inconsistency will not cut the mustard. When everything clicks, they have enough quality to beat any team at this level, but thus far it hasn’t happened nearly enough. In a strange kind of way, playing them just after a 5-0 victory could be the best possible situation.

I will also touch on the attack in this section. I know I’ve praised them before, and I maintain that at its best Stoke’s attack can be particularly eye-catching. But they are lacking something vital: a killer goalscorer. The sort of player who will find himself in the right place at the right time, and can be trusted to hit double figures for goals every year.

See, last season Stoke were blighted by poor finishing. They posted the lowest figure for shot accuracy in the entire league, and had the second-lowest shot conversion rate (only Sunderland were worse). That resulted in Andre Vidigal being their top league goalscorer with…six goals. 57 players in the Championship scored more goals than Stoke’s top scorer last season. That isn’t good enough.

Early indications suggest the problem hasn’t been resolved. Stoke have only had seven shots on target in their three league games, the second-lowest figure in the league and (incredibly) fewer than Argyle have managed despite having spent most of the time being outplayed. There was a situation in Stoke’s game with West Brom that summed up their woes nicely; not only does Koumas hit the post with a big chance, Manhoef then fires over the bar from the rebound with the goal gaping.

Stoke may have the better of the game on Saturday, and whilst doing so they may play some attractive football. They won’t win if they don’t score though, and if they don’t fix their goalscoring issue they are in real danger of letting another season pass them by.

By the time you’re reading this, Stoke may have signed another forward who could fix these struggles. Failing that, one of their current players will need to step up, and could do with starting that process on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction

This is a real ‘heart against head’ moment. I can certainly see a situation where Stoke dominate on Saturday, and if they do get a couple of goals things could get very ugly very quickly.

Still, we haven’t considered a key element of this particular fixture: Home Park. Whilst Argyle haven’t looked particularly coherent under Rooney, it remains the case that the Greens haven’t lost in front of their own fans since the Foster era. Much like the first half of last season under Schumacher, it’s possible that Argyle are simply better at home under Rooney, and that could be the key difference, particularly if the atmosphere is as feisty as we anticipate.

For that reason I’m going to live a little, allow heart to overrule head, and suggest the Pilgrims will just about secure victory. 2-1 Argyle.