Preview: Oxford vs Plymouth Argyle

The last game of 2024 and the last days of the Rooney era? Adam Price previews the trip to Oxfordshire.

This season, it would appear there is nothing so good, nothing so sacred and traditional, that it can’t be ruined by Plymouth Argyle.

After what I hope was a wonderful Christmas for you and yours, Wayne Rooney’s side travelled to Coventry on Boxing Day. Buoyed by promising performances against Sheffield United and Middlesbrough, which still only yielded one point, Argyle were swiftly demolished. The Greens were 4-0 down by half time, ended the game with ten men, and came closest to scoring through a player who celebrated his 12^th birthday a week before the first COVID lockdown. Season of goodwill to all men? Yeah right.

The nature of the Christmas period means the games come thick and fast, a depressing thought when you’re playing this badly. Argyle head to the three-sided Kassam Stadium to take on Oxford United on Sunday and, well, at the time of writing the management team are still in post. Perhaps that will have changed once I reach the strengths and weaknesses sections (later note: it didn’t). Oxford, for their part, have been through a recent managerial change, with Gary Rowett summoned to replace the popular Des Buckingham.

I had started writing about Oxford before the postponed reverse fixture earlier this month, and was hoping to recycle some of that ahead of this encounter. Alas, the managerial change has seen many of those notes head straight for the bin. So it’s back to the drawing board for me, and indeed for Argyle, in a game they simply must not lose.

Style of play

Buckingham was an attack-minded coach, and showed no signs of deviating from that principle upon promotion to the Championship. Arguably, it was that stubbornness that eventually led to his downfall, but in many ways it showed an admirable belief in his methods. As we came to learn last season through his spells at Millwall and Birmingham City, Rowett is very different. He’ll take a “back to basics” approach at the Kassam, focusing on defensive solidity rather than attacking flair.

One thing that I suspect will remain constant between the two head coaches is the formation. Both Buckingham and Rowett prefer a system with four at the back, with the latter deploying a 4-4-1-1 to beat Cardiff City on Boxing Day. Under Buckingham, Oxford did occasionally use a shape with three at the back but some disappointing results, including a 6-2 defeat at home to Middlesbrough, appear to have seen that experiment permanently shelved.

Going into the eventually postponed game at Home Park, Oxford’s back line looked slightly unsettled. In recent weeks, however, numerous players have been able to maintain a run in the side.

Jamie Cumming, a free transfer arrival from Chelsea in the summer, is the first-choice goalkeeper. Provided there is no rotation over the festive period, he’ll be supported by a central defensive pairing of Ciaron Brown and captain Elliott Moore, with Greg Leigh at left back. The only quandary appears to be on the right. Sam Long looks to be in pole position to start, but Peter Kioso offers a more attacking option, and Hidde ter Avest, goalscorer in Oxford’s victory over Hull City, is a handy third-choice.

The midfield tends to operate with a double pivot, one of whom will almost certainly be Cameron Brannagan. The ex-Liverpool youngster has been an Oxford mainstay since 2018, has racked up over 300 appearances in yellow, and was sorely missed after picking up a knee injury against Stoke City earlier this year. Alongside him, Rowett appears to prefer former Sheffield Wednesday midfielder Will Vaulks, though Idris El Mizouni provides a different option.

In the attacking positions, academy graduate Tyler Goodrham’s versatility makes the exact system hard to predict. He can line up as a number 10, and on either of the flanks, and tends to be just as effective wherever he plays. If I had to guess, I’d say Goodrham will start on the left, making room for Ruben Rodrigues as the attacking midfielder and Przemyslaw Placheta on the right. Placheta scored a cracker cutting in on his left foot against Cardiff on Boxing Day.

Finally, there’s the lone striker. There are a few options, but I suspect we’ll see one of either Mark Harris or Dane Scarlett from the start, with the other perhaps emerging from the bench later on. Harris would appear to have a slight edge; he scored Oxford’s opener against Cardiff, and is slightly taller which is likely to prove slightly more suited to Rowett’s system.

In fact, there are early signs that Oxford have a squad that could suit Rowett’s system overall. Buckingham may be seen as a modern day, attack-minded coach. But for the stats we have available, which for this piece includes the games up to but not including Boxing Day, only two teams (Preston North End and Luton Town) have attempted more long passes than Oxford. There may be a philosophy change at the Kassam, but a direct passing style isn’t going to feel at all alien to this squad.

After replacing Steven Schumacher with Ian Foster, Argyle fans know all too well that replacing an attacking coach with a defensive one has its pitfalls. At Oxford though, the early signs are good. If Rowett can fix the defensive issues whilst keeping the positive elements of the attack, his side have every chance of staying up.

Strengths

For me, there are two elements that thus far have kept Oxford above the dreaded dotted line. Their relative success has been built on an excellent goalkeeper and a clinical attack.

We’ll start with the former. Ever since arriving in the summer, Cumming has been one of the Championship’s top performing goalkeepers. And he arrived on a free transfer – given the recent form of £600,000 acquisition Dan Grimshaw, that may well raise questions about the efficiency of Argyle’s summer business.

As ever with ‘keepers, we’ll start with post-shot xG data. Before the Boxing Day fixtures are taken into account, Cumming had conceded 37 goals from a post-shot xG of 41.31. His total of 4.31 goals prevented is beaten by only four other ‘keepers in the league, and his prevented rate of 1.12 also scrubs up well when compared to the rest of the Championship.

Cumming also impresses with other aspects of his game. His distribution has been a positive, and he tends to deal well with crosses too. His average of 0.76 high claims per 90 is absolutely fine, and is comfortably better than any goalkeeper Argyle have at their disposal.

Nerds like myself often have to create their own toys for Christmas. This year, I’ve crafted one that allows me to compare two players across the league in any position to each other. Here’s an example with the goalkeepers; when you compare Grimshaw and Cumming directly, the difference is alarming, particularly when you consider that one cost over half a million more than the other.

Moving on to the attack, it’s hard not to have been impressed by how well Oxford have taken their chances. Rowett’s side haven’t actually had a great deal of shots this season, and we’ll discuss that a little more later on, but from those they do take they can be particularly deadly.

Their shot accuracy is a reasonable place to start. Pre-Boxing Day, Oxford had taken a total of 197 shots, of which 70 were on target. That converts to a shot accuracy of 36%, enough to rank them as the third-most accurate shooters in the league. Only Norwich City and Blackburn Rovers have been shooting more accurately. Oxford’s shot conversion of 11% isn’t quite as impressive, but it still ranks eighth, more than acceptable for a side of their standing.

For me, it’s been their ability to find the net from all sorts of areas that has set them apart. Earlier on we saw Placheta’s Boxing Day effort against Cardiff, but in this regard, it’s been Goodrham who has caught the eye the most. He’s scored twice already from outside the box this season, helping Oxford vital points. In November, there was a superbly placed late equaliser to win a point against Millwall, in what was supposed to be the game before Oxford travelled to Home Park three weeks ago.

It goes without saying that Argyle will need to be prepared for this level of shooting from their opponents. Against Coventry, the Greens conceded twice from shots outside of the penalty area, and I’d argue that Grimshaw ought to have done better for both. For me, it’s more evidence that this would be the ideal game to give Conor Hazard a return to the side, trusting his shot stopping to repel some of the more hopeful Oxford efforts.

Finally, and as I often seem to be mentioning in recent weeks, Argyle will struggle if this game turns into an aerial battle. Oxford have had the beating of Argyle in the air all season, and that’ll only be exacerbated by Rowett’s arrival. His side’s aerial duel success of 51% ranks within the top ten in the league; Argyle’s success rate of 40% still ranks last. Given the depleted nature of Argyle’s squad, playing the game on their terms may be tough, but they have to try.

Weaknesses

Much of this section will come with significant caveats. When you replace a manager or head coach, you naturally hope that you’ll be able to maintain your strengths whilst negating your weaknesses. It’s very possible, therefore, that Rowett has already got to work on some of the points I’m about to raise. Still, such fixes don’t tend to happen immediately, particularly before a manager’s first transfer window. Old habits die hard and, as we saw with Foster, there is a danger of going too far the other way.

So, focusing on Oxford’s negatives to the season thus far, I don’t think it’d be unfair to describe them as something of a soft touch. Buckingham didn’t deviate from his principles upon promotion to the Championship, which as I say I believe is an admirable trait. But I’d also claim it cost his side on occasion, with tactical naivety a key factor. It wasn’t as egregious as Russell Martin’s philosophy upon Premier League promotion with Southampton, but it’s ultimately led to both showing up at the Jobcentre.

For example, Buckingham’s tendency to attack continued regardless of the state of the game. Exciting to watch, for sure, but it always gave his opponents hope that they could get back into any encounter. The numbers back up that attitude; Buckingham’s side dropped 14 points from winning positions during his tenure this season, which still ranks as the fourth-highest figure in the league a fortnight after his departure.

I also think Oxford have been lacking a little in what we’ll call the “dirtier” side of the game. Whether you’d describe it as being clever, or indulging in the dark arts, Oxford haven’t been doing it successfully. They only rank 20^th for average possession this season but, despite having so little of the ball, they’ve made the second-lowest number of fouls, with only West Bromwich Albion committing fewer than Oxford’s 201. Some may recoil at this statement, but they’ve simply been too nice.

Now, I’ll return to the caveat I mentioned earlier: Rowett has been brought in to deal with these issues. Game management and dark arts are second nature to many of his sides, and he’ll be confident he can resolve those problems in time. Can he do it immediately? We may find out more on Sunday afternoon.

Even if he does though, there are undoubtedly issues at Oxford that’ll take a little longer to fix. They may have a clinical attack, and they may have a keeper who can repel many attacks, but between both boxes they’ve been known to struggle. The underlying data, if you prefer that term, isn’t in Oxford’s favour.

Going forward, they’ll be in real trouble if their shot accuracy starts to drop, as we saw from Argyle under Foster last season. With 197, they’ve had fewer shots than any other team in the league, and there are no real signs that it’ll be easy to improve; they’ve also had 306 touches in the penalty area, which is again the lowest figure of any side in the division. They’re not shooting often, and they’re not getting into shooting positions enough to be consistently threatening.

The numbers in defence are equally alarming. In a total reverse to their struggles in getting shots away, Oxford face a great deal at the other end, with only two teams in the league facing more shots this season than Oxford’s 318. They’ve also faced more corners than anyone, and only Argyle themselves have had more opposition touches in their own penalty area.

In normal circumstances, Oxford are the sort of team you’d be confident of putting in a good showing against. Alas, Plymouth Argyle on the road is about as far away from “normal circumstances” as you can get.

Prediction

Just a few days ago, I’d have been confident of Argyle winning this game. I still absolutely maintain that the level of performance seen against Sheffield United and Middlesbrough would have been enough to beat Oxford, but the level of performance in Coventry would have struggled to beat Plymouth Parkway.

Teams have had, and I imagine will continue to have, success against Oxford this season. Before Rowett has a transfer window behind him, they’re the sort of team I imagine would struggle against a burly, nasty, experienced Championship side. And that definition could barely be further removed from Argyle in their current state. 2-0 Oxford.