Preview: Coventry vs Plymouth Argyle

Football is back for the traditional Boxing Day game and a much longer than usual trip for the festivities...Adam Price looks ahead.

First of all, please let me take a moment to say I hope you had a wonderful Christmas. Whilst it may be appearing for you in the early hours of Boxing Day, I actually completed this piece before Santa completed his circumnavigation of the globe. I therefore can’t comment on events of the big day, so if the turkey was overdone or the Gavin and Stacey finale didn’t live up to expectations, I’m sorry to hear about your experiences.

Whatever the festive period has brought you thus far, let’s hope our collective time can be enhanced by events on the football field. After a highly entertaining 3-3 draw with Middlesbrough at the weekend, Plymouth Argyle are quickly back in action with a trip to Coventry City. Frank Lampard’s Coventry City, to use their full name, have had a mixed bag of a season to date – after the controversial dismissal of Mark Robins, Lampard made a solid start, but a 4-1 defeat in Portsmouth at the weekend suggests his honeymoon period is well and truly over.

As for Argyle, we’ve all been encouraged by the recent two performances, but ultimately one win in 12 isn’t good enough. For Wayne Rooney’s sake, another victory has to be on the horizon soon, and his side will be viewing the trip to Coventry as an opportunity not only to improve their recent record, but also secure their first win on the road this season. What can we expect from the opposition on yet another Boxing Day away from home?

Style of play

Coventry are performing below expectations this season. As such, it’s perhaps not a surprise that they’ve deployed numerous formations under numerous head coaches in an attempt to find a consistent winning formula. Under Lampard though, that formation has been much more settled, and it’s one we’ve become familiar with in Argyle’s opponents: 4-2-3-1.

I’m going to start with the wide players, who appear to have a very defined role in the system. Since joining the club in late November, Lampard has trusted Ephron Mason-Clark to play on the left, with Tatsuhiro Sakamoto on the right. They are both goalscoring threats on their day but, unlike what we saw against Middlesbrough, the primary role of the wingers will be creating chances for others rather than themselves. That can be demonstrated by the fact that Coventry have both attempted and completed more crosses than any other team in the league.

That stat also suggests that the full backs will also get forward with regularity, overlap their respective wingers, and get crosses into the area. It’s a tactic that worked for Argyle against Boro, and it’s something that Coventry have enacted successfully all season. Milan van Ewijk regularly flourishes in this role from the right back position, whilst at the moment Jay Dasilva appears to have the edge over Jake Bidwell on the left.

As for the target of those crosses, Coventry only line up with one striker. Names like Haji Wright and Ellis Simms may be familiar, but it’s actually been 20-year-old Belgian Norman Bassette leading the line in recent weeks. Perhaps that will change after the Portsmouth demolition, though it’d seem a little harsh given he did score Coventry’s goal.

The opposite winger will get into the area when crosses are played across, and the unit will be supported by a number 10 wearing number 5, Jack Rudoni. The £5 million summer signing from Huddersfield Town will feed off any scraps, whilst also playing a generally creative role in possession. Rudoni leads Coventry’s ranks for key passes and big chances created this season, quite the feat when you consider that much of his side’s threat comes from the flanks.

Out of possession, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the Coventry attack to deploy an active press. In the tackle they’re actually quite strong, but that’s partially because they don’t commit to many. Only two teams in the Championship have completed fewer tackles whilst just one, West Bromwich Albion, has been dribbled past on fewer occasions. It suggests that Coventry are a side who, rather than trying to win the ball back quickly, prefer to settle back into their shape and rely on a strong spine to make themselves tough to break down.

You can possibly explain Coventry’s struggles this season by mentioning that the aforementioned spine has been unsettled. Sure, Ben Sheaf has been a midfield mainstay, but he missed the first six games of the league season through injury, and Lampard can’t seem to decide whether he prefers Josh Eccles or Victor Torp alongside him. It’s a similar story in defence, with Bobby Thomas a regular in the middle but numerous options failing to nail down the spot as his partner. And Brad Collins is the third player this season to line up for Coventry in goal.

None of that will allow confidence to flow through the side, but in the main Coventry fans ought to be hopeful of a good showing. The style is fairly simple and easy for the players to follow, and they made five signings this summer beyond the fee Argyle paid for their own record arrivals. They’ll undoubtedly provide a challenge.

Strengths

As I’ve mentioned, Coventry’s 4-2-3-1 operates differently to what we saw from Middlesbrough, who like to use the same shape, at the weekend. There is certainly one similarity we can draw between the two though: there is a lot to like about the way they attack.

Boro, as we witnessed at Home Park, like to get shots away, and when they do they can be remarkably clinical in front of goal. Coventry haven’t been quite as effective when they do get into shooting positions (more on this later), but the sheer number of shots they have taken remains impressive.

Overall, Coventry have taken 297 shots over the course of the season. That’s a figure only beaten by two clubs: Boro themselves and Leeds United. And encouragingly, those shots tend to be coming from dangerous areas. 69% of their shots are taken from inside the penalty area, which is comfortably above average, and they’ve amassed a total xG of 34.95, a number only beaten by the two teams mentioned above.

Given the creativity that exists in Coventry’s side, it’s no shock that they take a significant number of dangerous shots. I’ve already mentioned how effective their crossing can be, and I’ve already mentioned the talents of Rudoni, but I am going to talk a little more on the latter. Rudoni’s total of 42 key passes isn’t only the most in Coventry’s side, it’s a total beaten only by three other players in the league. Meanwhile, his total of eight big chances created is also topped by just three others. Add in his four goals, and right now it’s looking like £5 million well spent.

Now, this is something Argyle ought to be prepared for, given they just faced a side with a highly creative number 10. Finn Azaz has posted even better numbers than Rudoni this season, and Argyle managed to keep him unusually quiet on Saturday afternoon. In theory, a repeat performance should be able to rob Coventry of one of their main attacking threats, though it is only in theory; we all know how different such a battle can be away from home.

Coventry have been particularly impressive in the way they’ve complemented those attacking numbers with a fairly frugal defence. Along with the obvious past success, I suspect this is one of the reasons why so many supporters were outraged by Robins’ removal. Combined with their xG of 34.95, Coventry’s xG against of 22.50 gives them a net xG of 12.45, the third-highest figure in the league. And whilst it doesn’t always work out this way, their expected points total of 38.02 would also rank them third, a far cry from their actual league position of 17^th.

There are clearly strengths in attack and defence, and I think you could argue they’re underpinned by Coventry’s aerial ability, a key factor at both ends of the field. This season, Lampard’s side have posted an aerial duel success of 54%, which once again ranks as the third-highest figure in the league. As I often seem to mention, Argyle have the worst aerial duel success in the league, with their figure currently sitting at 40%.

Sometimes they may be able to get away with it, but Argyle cannot allow this game to descend into an aerial battle. They’d be obliterated.

Weaknesses

If you weren’t to look at the league table, and just took in the stats in the previous section, you’d probably (and very fairly) assume that Coventry are amongst the promotion challengers as we reach the season’s halfway point. In fact, the total opposite is true. Just why are Coventry underperforming so badly?

Let’s just take a moment to consider the extent of Coventry’s underperformance. As I mentioned previously, their expected points tally currently sits at 38.02. With their actual points tally sitting at 24, Coventry are 14.02 points behind where they sit in the much-debated “justice league.” It’s the biggest underperformance in the Championship, with Hull City the only other side to have posted a double-figure total in the negative direction.

Game state will have had a part to play in Coventry’s total xG numbers. Only two teams – Argyle and Cardiff City – have spent more time behind in their games this season than Coventry. As such, they’ll have been pushing for a goal more frequently than some of their counterparts, and racked up xG as a result. However, I don’t think this explains the total extent of their underperformance, and we have to conclude that wasteful finishing and conceding soft goals has contributed to their lowly standing against expectations.

We can quantify that wasteful finishing in a couple of ways. First, let’s go back to xG again. Given their total underperformance, it won’t surprise you to know that Coventry’s number of total goals is lagging behind their xG figure. Having scored 28 times from an xG of 34.95, Coventry are underperforming to the extent of 6.95 goals. No other Championship team has posted a worse underperformance figure.

Coventry’s inadequacies are also plain to see when we only consider big goalscoring chances. As I’ve previously mentioned, Coventry’s creativity has generally been excellent, and their total of 57 big chances is a number only topped by Leeds United. But they’ve choked when presented with those chances, missing 41 of them – to put that into perspective, Argyle have only had 24 big chances in total this season. Coventry’s big chance conversion rate this season is 28%, with Hull and Cardiff being the only sides worse when presented with such opportunities.

That’s one side of the coin. Now let’s turn to the other end. Coventry have conceded 34 goals from an xG against of 22.50, their underperformance of 11.50 once again taking the crown as the worst figure in the league. A few factors are at play, and yes, some of that must be put down to poor fortune. For me though, the goalkeeping situation goes a long way to explaining the numbers.

The goalkeeper position at Coventry has resembled a merry-go-round for the past few seasons. Ben Wilson played the lion’s share of games in the play-off season of 2022/23, but lost his place midway through last season with Robins preferring new arrival Brad Collins. Collins was fine, but could be upgraded on, and Coventry spent big last summer to bring in Oliver Dovin from Swedish side Hammarby. But some poor performances from Dovin saw Wilson brought in, and an injury to Wilson has seen the place go back to Collins. It’s been a total mess.

Given Collins’ disasterclass against Portsmouth at the weekend, God knows who will start in goal on Boxing Day. Whoever does though, I want to see shots raining down on them from all angles. Collectively, Coventry’s ‘keepers have the worst save success rate in the league, and each one is underperforming against their post-shot xG. Put them under pressure, and they could wilt.

Coventry’s goalkeeper struggles also extend to crosses. Collectively, the three ‘keepers have made a total of three high claims between them. It’s a remarkably low figure, lower even than Argyle, who have two goalkeepers in Conor Hazard and Dan Grimshaw who seem allergic to coming off their line when crosses are fired in. Argyle were lethal from crosses against Middlesbrough, and there’s every chance a similar tactic could prove effective this time.

Prediction

Frank Lampard’s Coventry City against Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth Argyle. Whatever happens, you can be sure there’ll be plenty of eyes on this encounter.

This season, we’ve become used to Argyle crumbling in such circumstances, particularly away from home. You certainly can’t rule out a similar showing this time, but I hold out hope that Argyle’s last two performances mark the turning of a corner. Coventry are a deceptively strong side, but if Argyle perform in a similar way to what we saw at the weekend, I think they match up to their hosts quite nicely.

Will that be enough to secure the long-awaited away win? I’m not so sure. My instinct is that Argyle will give Coventry a game, but they extra quality from the hosts will just be enough to see them through. So I’ll go for a similar prediction to the Middlesbrough game: 2-1 Coventry, but with plenty of hope that things could fall the other way.