Preview: Cardiff vs Plymouth Argyle
Adam Price previews our visit to the Welsh capital for the Saturday early kick-off.
International breaks can be mysterious beasts. Heading into September’s break, Plymouth Argyle had just lost to Steven Schumacher’s Stoke City, leaving the Pilgrims without a win all season. The time off proved hugely beneficial – barely a month later Argyle have won three league games, played excellent football, and head coach Wayne Rooney has even been nominated for the Championship’s manager of the month award. Oh, and Schumacher is now unemployed.
Argyle will be hoping that the most recent break doesn’t have the opposite effect. They’ll want to carry forward momentum, and to do so they’ll have to overcome Welsh opposition in an intriguing matchup. Cardiff City have had an appalling start to the season; they sit bottom of the league, and have already dispensed with one manager. They will have home advantage though, and it’d be a gross understatement to say Argyle rarely win on their travels.
Victory at the Cardiff City Stadium would provide definitive proof that Rooney’s Greens have turned a corner. Lose, and there will be more questions than answers ahead of yet another away game against Millwall in midweek. So, what could the Bluebirds offer?
Style of play
Earlier this season, Cardiff played exclusively with a 4-2-3-1 under the stewardship of Erol Bulut, before he was relieved of his duties following defeat at home to Leeds United. Caretaker Omer Riza has been in charge ever since, and at the time of writing a new permanent manager hasn’t been appointed. However, the shape hasn’t changed in that time, and I expect Cardiff’s 4-2-3-1 will still be in place this weekend.
Cardiff’s style is particularly dependent on the ‘number 10,’ who is expected to provide much of the creativity going forward. That position is likely to be taken up by talented 22-year-old Rubin Colwill. Despite appearing only from the bench for Cardiff’s first four league games, he leads the team’s ranks for shots, shots on target and dribbles, and he’s made the position his own.
Colwill is likely to be supported in the front three by Ollie Tanner to his right, Callum Robinson ahead, and Anwar El Ghazi to the left. It’s also possible that Riza will bring Callum O’Dowda back into the side, after he returned from an injury knock from the bench against Bristol City last time around. If O’Dowda starts, I’d expect it to be in place of El Ghazi; Tanner is in favour after a stunning opener at Ashton Gate.
There are further options in the front line. Striker Wilfried Kanga has appeared in all but one league game, albeit only from the bench under Riza, and we’ll probably see him at some stage. Chris Willock, meanwhile, appears to have fallen surprisingly out of favour after a highly-publicised summer move from Queens Park Rangers. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him feature.
Further back, Joe Ralls appears to be a certain starter, and recently he’s formed a partnership with Alex Robertson. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Manolis Siopis back in the starting eleven after his own injury return. He’s on a high after featuring in an historic 2-1 win for Greece at Wembley during the international window.
In defence, right back Perry Ng and centre back Calum Chambers have started every game, and I’d expect them to do so again. I haven’t actually had confirmation that Dimitrios Goutas is fit after he went off late against Bristol City, but if he is he’ll partner Chambers in the middle. The left back position looks to have been claimed by Joel Bagan, but Jamilu Collins and even O’Dowda have filled in there occasionally this term.
That leaves just the goalkeeper. Last winter, Cardiff signed Ethan Horvath to replace Jak Alnwick. But Horvath started this season dreadfully, leading to…Alnwick returning between the sticks. I suspect he’ll be there again on Saturday.
Cardiff’s style feels structured. At its best, every player will know their role, and they’ll get the basics right. That they haven’t been able to do so goes a long way to explaining their lowly league position at this early stage.
Strengths
Last season, Cardiff scored goals from set pieces better than anyone. The Bluebirds scored 20 goals from dead-ball situations across the campaign, comfortably clear of Ipswich Town, who placed second on the list with 17. For their part, Argyle scored five, the joint-lowest total in the division.
The raw numbers don’t necessarily tell the full story. Ipswich may have come close to Cardiff on this list last season, but they were one of the better sides in the league, and would have had more set piece opportunities as a result. Their set piece goals accounted for 18% of their total goals across the campaign. Meanwhile, Cardiff scored an astounding 38% of their goals from dead-ball situations. They weren’t just effective from set pieces, they actually made them a crucial element of their style.
Now, this is obviously a strength of last season. It hasn’t necessarily carried over to the current campaign, and I’d suggest that set piece goals drying up was a key element in Bulut’s eventual demise. However, there are signs that Cardiff’s proficiency may have returned under Riza. Their only league win so far this year came against Millwall, with Ng scoring the winner from a corner.
If Cardiff have regained their set piece mojo, that could spell serious trouble for Argyle. Put simply, the Greens are weak in dead-ball situations at both ends of the field. Last year, Cardiff scored twice from corners against Argyle, and you certainly wouldn’t bet against them repeating the feat on Saturday.
While he’s at the forefront of my mind, I’ll mention Ng as a strong individual in Cardiff’s ranks. He’s a threat from set pieces, and his defensive work tends to impress. This season he’s won a total of 42 ground duels, placing him 11th in the league, and he’s won them at an impressive success rate of 64%. Only two players in the Championship have won more ground duels than Ng with a better success rate. Should the Dutchman prove his fitness, Ibrahim Cissoko’s battle with Ng on Saturday could be fascinating.
That’s about it for tangible strengths. As expected, there aren’t too many to speak of for the early Championship basement-dwellers. So let me finish this section by considering one the key intangibles: it can be incredibly dangerous to face a manager fighting for his career.
Riza has been in his role for four weeks, and as of now there is no clear favourite to take permanent charge. The longer that goes on, the more Riza, who hasn’t had a senior management job for seven years (and even that was a month-long stay as Leyton Orient were relegated), may start to feel the job is his to lose. Beating Argyle won’t necessarily secure the post, but he’ll surely be overlooked if he loses what Cardiff will perceive as one of their more winnable games.
Cardiff’s caretaker will have his side fighting for every ball. To secure a positive result, Argyle will need to match those commitment levels, and keep their concentration from minute one.
Weaknesses
Surprise surprise, the team bottom of the league appears to have glaring issues at both ends of the field. Collectively, their defending has been disturbing, and I won’t absolve them of blame having seen them concede 18 goals across their nine league games this season. However, looking at their numbers, I believe Cardiff have even more serious problems going forward.
The fact they’ve only scored four league goals thus far is a significant cause for alarm. It’s by far the lowest total in the league with Preston North End, the second-lowest scorers, almost doubling that tally with seven. Cardiff have failed to find the net on five separate occasions this season, which is again a worse record than any other side in the Championship.
Perhaps most worryingly, this isn’t an aberration where a team is seriously underperforming against their underlying data. Cardiff have posted an xG this season of 7.67. Sure, that’s higher than their actual goal tally, and we may see a few more fly into the net in future games, but it’s still the lowest figure in the league. Cardiff have the lowest number of actual goals and expected goals in the league – it’s a terrible combination.
It appears to me that Cardiff struggle with both creating and finishing their chances. In front of goal, they’ve posted a shot conversion rate of just 4% this season. Given the trend of this piece, it won’t shock you to know that’s the lowest figure across the division. It’s the sign of a team who can’t hit a barn door, and forwards who let the pressure get to them whenever they’re presented with an opportunity.
And those opportunities have been few and far between. Cardiff have had just ten big chances this season, which is the 23rd-highest figure in the division. The only team to have posted a lower total is Argyle, but the Greens’ issue right now is less serious for two reasons. First of all, their big chance creation has improved significantly since the first international break. And Argyle’s big chance conversion rate is 43%, far higher than Cardiff’s which sits at 20%.
Ultimately, Cardiff just haven’t been threatening in any meaningful way. They don’t create enough chances, when the chances arrive they tend not to take them, and there’s nothing in the build-up to suggest they can create something from nothing. Collectively, Cardiff have had 153 touches in their opponents’ penalty area this season, a total that beats only Portsmouth.
It creates an interesting situation for Argyle as they prepare to travel. Normally when planning for away games, one has to be aware of the threats possessed by the hosts. And whilst Cardiff do have one or two, they’re not the sort of side who will threaten for the full 90 minutes. With that in mind, Argyle should absolutely seek to play the game on their terms. Why not head to Cardiff with an attacking mindset? Why not play with the handbrake off? I’ve no doubt that will be Rooney’s way of thinking.
There’s one more thing to mention. You know how it’s often said that winning can become a habit? Of course, the same can be said for losing, and Cardiff have spent this season finding ways to get themselves into difficult situations.
Their game state is particularly curious. Across their first nine matches, Cardiff have been trailing for 54% of the time. That’s comfortably the highest figure in the league, and makes Cardiff the only team to have spent more than half of their game time losing. Things have improved slightly in recent weeks – the only times Cardiff have been ahead in any of their games has come under Riza – but it suggests that there’s a soft underbelly that Argyle can attempt to exploit.
If Argyle get into the lead, and the home crowd get restless, the Greens could really fly.
Prediction
In a vacuum, I’d certainly have Argyle as the most likely winners. Rooney’s side are the better team on paper in almost every metric this season, and the way they’ve improved since the first international break ought to give them supreme confidence. Nonetheless, there are variables we need to consider that make the job tougher, and winning away from home at this level is never straightforward.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cardiff score at least once. Their manager is battling for a permanent job, and history would suggest Argyle will be vulnerable to the Bluebirds’ set piece prowess. I don’t think it’ll be enough for the hosts to win the game though. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we something resembling the Boxing Day game of last season: a draw at the Cardiff City Stadium. 1-1.