Preview: Bristol City vs Plymouth Argyle

Here we go again. Hope prevails over expectation for the travelling 3,000 fans. as Adam Price previews the trip to Bristol...

I don’t know how many more times I can say this, but Plymouth Argyle need a reaction.

On Tuesday night, the Greens once again travelled away from home and put in a performance unbefitting of the shirt. The 6-1 scoreline in Norwich didn’t flatter the hosts (the “1” may have flattered the visitors), and it’s left Argyle fans wondering once more where we go from here. It speaks volumes that, at the start of this month, Argyle went to Leeds and didn’t have a shot, and it still probably doesn’t rank in the Pilgrims’ top three worst away performances of the season. And it’s only November.

This weekend, Argyle will embark on their shortest away day of the season. Still an away day, I’ll grant you, but at least it won’t be too far to travel home if things go south. The optimists will say that this acts as an opportunity for Argyle to reclaim the narrative, particularly in front of a sold out away end. And even the pessimists may feel that it surely can’t get worse, can it? Take it away, Mick…”it can.”

Bristol City are having exactly the sort of season you’d expect: average. It’s five wins, five defeats and seven draws, with the perennial mid-table dwellers sitting in 12^th. Much like Norwich, they’ll be another side seeing “Argyle at home” as the perfect opportunity to propel themselves up the league. Will they? Let’s delve deeper.

Style of play

Those who remember Liam Manning’s spell at Milton Keynes (or those who haven’t repressed the trauma of his 5-0 win at Home Park) will know he prefers a system with three at the back. He hasn’t been able to use it as much as he’d liked this year, with injuries to those in the middle forcing a switch to a back four on occasion. Those players are available now though, and Manning has reverted to his preferred 3-4-2-1 in recent weeks.

There is some supreme talent in that back three, and I think there’s a fair argument that each would comfortably walk into Argyle’s side. Rob Dickie is in his second season at the club, and scored a winning goal twice during his first. Luke McNally joined from Burnley over the summer, having spent last season on loan at Stoke City, and has slotted straight into the side. Then there’s Zak Vyner, a former Argyle loanee who has gone from strength to strength since returning to Ashton Gate.

In the “4” there is a relatively settled midfield partnership of Jason Knight and Marcus McGuane. If I were to throw a criticism at Manning though, he doesn’t seem to have settled on a wing back pairing. Admittedly, injuries to the likes of George Tanner, Mark Sykes and Ross McCrorie haven’t helped, but Manning still seems to be tinkering with the remaining options. Haydon Roberts and George Earthy started against Burnley, and were replaced by Cameron Pring and Yu Hirakawa against Watford last time out.

Further forward, Nahki Wells has been starting up front. That surprises me slightly. I have nothing against the 34-year-old, who has had a perfectly acceptable career in the EFL, but I’d have thought this would be a prime area to improve for the Robins over the summer. It hasn’t really materialised; Fally Mayulu and Sinclair Armstrong arrived, and they’ve both had their moments in a Bristol City shirt, but neither has done enough to earn a consistent spot in the side.

In Manning’s system, the two attacking midfielders are key. They act as the creative hub of the side, and are also expected to notch significant goal tallies themselves. Anis Mehmeti and Max Bird have played there recently, but there is unwelcome news: Scott Twine has returned from injury just in time for this encounter. He’s only appeared from the bench for the last two games but, considering both resulted in defeats, I’d be stunned if he didn’t start on Saturday.

Manning’s sides have traditionally been keen to keep the ball. As such, it’s interesting that Bristol City’s average possession sits at only 49%. However, it’s worth noting that their figure has been hit by certain games where they’ve been happy to surrender possession against other ball-hungry sides – they had 34% possession against Norwich, 32% against Leeds United and 31% against Middlesbrough. I suspect they’ll dominate and have the lion’s share of possession against Argyle.

That’s particularly the case in the final third. Manning’s philosophy is to wait until the best possible moment to shoot, and as such we shouldn’t expect too many efforts from distance. This year, 75% of Bristol City’s shots have been from inside the penalty area. Only Luton Town (78%) have taken a higher proportion of shots from inside the box.

Dan Grimshaw may not have to be on his toes for a shot all the time and, if the defence do their job, he could be in for a quiet afternoon. That job, alas, is quite a big one.

Strengths

I’ll be honest, this is one of the hardest previews I’ve had to write for a while. When I said earlier that Bristol City are distinctly average, it applies in several ways. Not only are they 12^th in the Championship, they’re also 11^th in the expected points table, and are performing at a generally standard level at both ends of the field. The number of metrics for which they rank anywhere between 11^th and 14^th is also remarkable.

As such, identifying any particular strengths and weaknesses is somewhat of a fool’s errand. However, there are a few areas where I’ve been able to notice outliers, many of which relate to Manning’s style of play.

The most obvious is that, when it does work, Manning’s football can be thrilling to watch. More pertinently, it can be tough to defend against. This season his side have completed 13 through balls, with only three teams in the league having completed more. Bristol City have also entered the opposition’s final third 1,048 times. That’s a total only beaten, as it was for shots inside the penalty area, by Luton.

Being the spoilsport I am, I feel compelled to note that this doesn’t necessarily mean that Bristol City are amongst the “best” at those aspects of the game. Manning’s style of passing in attack makes a high number of final third entries likely, and through balls are key to most of his patterns of play. I don’t have any numbers for the quantity of through balls they’ve actually attempted, so I couldn’t tell you whether they’re generally successful, or whether the law of averages means they’ll always be near the top of that list.

Still, attempt enough through balls against this Argyle side and you’re sure to succeed eventually. That rings even truer when you consider Twine’s likely return to the side. Argyle fans know better than most how effective he can be, particularly in a Manning team, and the numbers back up that feeling. Nobody in the league has created more big chances than Twine’s eight, quite astonishing when you consider he’s missed half the campaign through injury, and he’ll be a constant thorn in Argyle’s side once more.

As a more general point, I’ve been impressed by the way Bristol City have responded to adversity this season. Across their 17 games, they’ve fallen behind ten times but only lost on five occasions. In fact, the nine points they’ve gained from losing positions is more than any other team in the division.

That tells me two things. The side are clearly fighting for every cause this season, which despite their flaws is also true of Argyle (at least at home). Additionally, praise must go to Manning for his ability to turn games around. Substitutes have scored five of Bristol City’s league goals this season, with only two teams in the league (Blackburn Rovers and Leeds) seeing more goals from those initially starting on the bench. Manning clearly knows how to make adjustments and turn a game in his team’s favour.

To be brutally honest, I can’t see a world where Argyle take the lead this weekend. But even if they do, they can’t afford to rest on their laurels.

Weaknesses

As with the previous section, it’s hard to pinpoint any specific weaknesses in the most “Championship” team the Championship has seen for many years. Again, most are probably a symptom of their style of play, rather than any obvious deficiency.

For example, let’s look at their dribbling. Currently, Bristol City are the worst dribblers in the division with a success rate of 40%. To his credit, it may be that Manning has recognised this inadequacy and looked to negate it with his playing style. Only four teams have actually attempted fewer dribbles than Bristol City, reemphasising the fact that Manning’s style focuses on patient, probing passing rather than gung-ho running at defences. Therefore, poor dribbling is less of an issue.

Still, the stat should provide Argyle with some comfort. On Tuesday, Borja Sainz terrorised Argyle by attempting more dribbles than anyone else on the field, and ended the night with a hat-trick. Bristol City have their own dangers, but Argyle are unlikely to face a player with similar traits this weekend. That will have allowed them to focus on more orthodox defending in training, and it should (“should” is certainly the key word) help them in maintaining their shape.

At the other end, Bristol City would appear to have trouble when dealing with set pieces. I’ve had strong thoughts about Argyle’s own failings facing dead ball situations this season, and I’m not confident those feelings will subside anytime soon. But the Robins have been running them close.

This season, Bristol City have conceded seven goals from set piece situations, a total only topped by Argyle themselves. And when you consider that Argyle have conceded significantly more goals overall, Bristol City’s problems are proportionally worse.

33% of the goals Manning’s side have conceded this season have come from set pieces. Only one team (perhaps surprisingly, Millwall) have conceded a higher proportion of their goals from such situations. And it’s a problem that remains relevant if we look at corners alone. 6% of the corners Bristol City have faced this season have resulted in goals, well above average and again only topped by one team in the division, this time Sheffield Wednesday.

I’m not saying Argyle will definitely score a set piece goal at Ashton Gate. Frankly, given their set piece record it would be mad to think that’d be the case. Still, I can say that set pieces could make the hosts nervous. String together a spell of pressure, win a few quick corners in succession, and who knows? Something may just fall Argyle’s way.

Finally, and back to open play, I mentioned earlier that Bristol City wait as long as possible to ensure they shoot from the best possible position. Argyle are the opposite, and arguably the most “shoot on sight” team in the league. And that could suit the Greens, because I haven’t been wholly convinced by Robins keeper Max O’Leary.

Whilst he undeniably deals with crosses better than Argyle’s goalkeeping contingent, O’Leary’s shot stopping has been poor this year. He’s conceded a total of 21 goals from a post-shot xG figure of 17.87, amounting to a total goals prevented figure of -3.13 and a prevented rate of 0.85. Without a full midweek fixture update, I can’t say where exactly that ranks compared to other Championship ‘keepers, but suffice to say it’s at the lower end of the scale.

I wouldn’t say O’Leary is totally inadequate at this level, and last season his numbers were largely fine. Nonetheless, I’d definitely be encouraging Argyle’s players to have a few shots while he’s out of form.

Prediction

Last season, Bristol City away was the nadir of Steven Schumacher’s Championship spell at Argyle. This season, that game would probably rank among the Pilgrims’ better displays away from home, simply by process of elimination.

It won’t come as a surprise that I’m predicting an Argyle defeat on this occasion. Sure, I do expect something of a reaction from Norwich, but that isn’t saying a lot given the level of performance at Carrow Road. I suspect the hosts will break Argyle down, probably quickly with their intricate play, and they’ll end up winning fairly comfortably. 2-0 Bristol City.