Muhamed Tijani: What to Expect?
Adam Price looks at what to expect from Muhamed Tijani, as the Nigerian forward joins on a season-long loan from Slavia Prague.
Image from iDNES.cz
Honestly, did you expect Plymouth Argyle to sign a player from Slavia Prague this summer? I certainly didn’t. Even when reports broke last week, from a number of reliable sources, I struggled to fully believe them. Here we are though, with striker Muhamed Tijani arriving at Home Park on loan from the seven-time champions of Czechia.
Tijani becomes the second player this window, and indeed this week, to join the Greens on loan. That follows Darko Gyabi returning to Argyle on a season-long deal from Leeds United. Tijani’s deal is slightly different, with Argyle having the option to buy the 23-year-old permanently at the end of his spell. That clause is supposedly worth more than Slavia Prague paid for him last summer. Given that fee was believed to be north of £1 million, we can assume it’d take around a seven-figure fee to make Tijani’s move permanent.
Let’s take a look at Tijani, and investigate what Argyle will be getting now, as well as what they may eventually get for their money.
Notes on goalscoring
Scratch beneath the surface and there are plenty of surprises hidden within Tijani’s numbers. We’ll get to them. However, upon his announcement, many turned to his goalscoring record. Rightly or wrongly, strikers are always judged goals first and everything else second. It’s always been the case, and always will be the case.
I do certainly accept that his goalscoring record isn’t terrific, and it certainly wasn’t up to scratch last season. If it was, he’d probably still be in Prague. He scored a total of 4 goals in 33 appearances in all competitions last term, which simply isn’t good enough. That must improve at Argyle; they certainly won’t be breaking their current transfer record for him if it doesn’t.
I will, however, cut Tijani a little slack. Those 33 appearances only amounted to 1,135 minutes, or just over 12-and-a-half games. The four goals he got in that time amounts to 0.32 goals per 90 minutes, or around one goal every three games. Whilst that isn’t groundbreaking, it’s still a better record than two of Argyle’s other realistic centre forward options, Mustapha Bundu and Ben Waine, managed in the league last season.
There are reasons to be hopeful that Tijani can build on those numbers. Back in 2022/23 he was playing for Banik Ostrava in the same league as Slavia, and scored a total of 12 goals in 1,466 minutes. That amounted to 0.73 goals per 90, which is genuinely superb. Last season in the Championship only two players (Jamie Vardy and Josh Sargent) played more minutes than Tijani’s 1,466 whilst maintaining a higher rate of goals.
There is the obvious argument about the strength of the Czech top flight compared to the Championship, and I don’t think there’s a clear correct answer. I suspect the clubs we regularly see in European competition, such as Slavia, Sparta Prague and Viktoria Plzen, would comfortably deal with teams at the lower end of the Championship (including Argyle), whilst the likes of Leeds would have too much for Czech relegation fodder.
Regardless of your view on the league, the fact that Tijani has shown he can score in Czechia is a good start. And I’m under no illusions that his goalscoring must improve from his Slavia days. Argyle won’t consider him to be worth the money if he doesn’t deliver in front of goal. The good news is it can improve, and Argyle will have banked on it improving when deciding to make Tijani their latest signing.
Regular shooting
Tijani’s goalscoring struggles (or relative struggles, at least) certainly were not for the want of trying. Last season, Tijani took shots at a pretty remarkable rate. When Argyle make obscure signings from abroad, such as Bundu or Julio Pleguezuelo, we have to assume they’ve seen something in the data to make them conclude signing the player is a risk worth taking. With Tijani, his shooting could be that nugget of data.
From last season, we have data available from Tijani’s appearances in the Czech league, as well as his performances in the Europa League group stage. Across those games, Tijani took 59 shots, which amounted to an average of 5.04 shots per 90. That’s huge.
To put that figure into perspective, that’s a higher rate than even Morgan Whittaker posted last season, and he was willing to shoot from just about anywhere. In fact, only seven players in the entire Championship shot more regularly than Tijani, and none of those seven played anywhere near as many minutes as the Nigerian.
This comes with an obvious drawback: taking so many shots whilst scoring relatively few goals points to a high degree of profligacy. As you’d expect, this too is backed up by the stats. Tijani posted a shot accuracy figure of 22% last season, well below average, and his shot conversion rate was just 5%. No Argyle player to score even a single league goal last year had a worse figure.
What you make of those numbers will probably depend on your natural level of optimism. On one hand, Argyle have signed a wasteful striker who may frustrate more than he excites. On the other, Argyle have signed a striker with huge potential, who could prove to be a gem if he starts to score the number of goals his shots suggest we should expect.
This is probably why Argyle have opted for a loan with an option to buy. If Tijani ignites, the path will be clear for them to make a smart investment. If he fails, they’ll be able to cut and run. I imagine this thinking has partly come as a result of the Finn Azaz debacle, and I’m glad to see the club learn from their mistakes.
Huge physical presence
We’ve investigated aspects of Tijani’s exploits in front of goal. I now also want to cover another area I imagine Argyle have spotted as a key statistical differential when deciding to make their move: physicality.
Wayne Rooney described Gyabi as “powerful and athletic,” and similar remarks have been set aside for Tijani. The first quotes from Rooney in Argyle’s announcement article on Tijani say, “He is big, athletic and can run in behind, but is equally as good at holding the ball up and bringing other players into play.” It’s not his shooting that immediately gets mentioned, it’s his athleticism.
That in itself isn’t much of a surprise. Rooney loves a target man – his brief time at Birmingham City saw an uptick in minutes for Lucas Jutkiewicz, as Rooney looked to take advantage of his physical talents to lead the line. It’s not exclusively how Rooney likes to play, but it’s clear he enjoys having such an option in the squad.
I’ve no doubt Tijani will be that option. His aerial duel stats provide a clear example. He was involved in, and won, a fair number when you consider his limited minutes, and did so at a greater success rate than any of Argyle’s regular centre forwards.
That’s not all. I was also struck by just how often Tijani committed fouls last season. I can’t quite find the words for just how much of a naughty boy he was on the pitch.
In the matches for which we have data, Tijani committed 44 fouls. Only Bali Mumba (48) committed more at Argyle last season, and he played significantly more minutes. Per 90, Tijani made a whopping 3.75 fouls, dwarfing any other figure at Argyle with Mumba (1.45) posting well less than half Tijani’s number. Again, that’s a notable figure in the league as a whole – not a single Championship player to have played as many minutes as Tijani committed more fouls per 90.
Like Gyabi, Tijani is a battler. He’ll push the laws of the game to their limit, and often beyond, in an attempt to win the ball. That could give Argyle an edge. Even if his goalscoring doesn’t improve, Tijani can still occupy defenders physically and bring others into play – think back to the days of Ryan Taylor.
Much was made last summer of Argyle failing to replace the outgoing Niall Ennis. Whether Tijani will prove good enough to be that Ennis replacement remains to be seen. I am very confident, however, that Argyle have now replaced Sam Cosgrove. Last season many of us bemoaned the lack of a plan B in the front line. The lack of a different profile of striker to act as an outlet and play on the minds of opposition defenders. Tijani should solve that problem.
Rooney’s influence
I may have mentioned, but I’m not wholly convinced by Rooney’s appointment. Of course I’m willing to give him a chance, and of course I hope everything works out for the best. But, without wanting to go over old ground, I still have my doubts.
That being said, I do just want to go back to one specific part of my reaction piece to Rooney’s arrival, and pick out one of the potential positives outlined.
“Having joined Birmingham in October, and having previously managed a Derby County side in financial strife, Rooney has never really had the chance to build his own squad. He’s also not had a long time on the training pitch to get his ideas across. He’ll be afforded those luxuries here. Given his contact book, I don’t think it’s unfair to suggest that could be a source of genuine excitement.”
We are clearly now seeing the benefit of Rooney’s contact book, and having a full transfer window is serving him well. I am fully of the belief, particularly based on Tijani’s own comments, that he wouldn’t have signed for Argyle but for Rooney’s presence. Neil Dewsnip mentioned Argyle had fought off interest from “several Europa League clubs keen to secure his signature,” and the original source to break the Tijani rumour also linked him with Swiss side Geneva and Rakow of Poland. That’s not nothing.
The player obviously wants to work with Rooney, and I imagine Rooney will be keen to work with Tijani too. Think about the sort of player we’ve described. He’s a fighter, and could be excellent if he can just sort out his finishing. Working with one of the best strikers this country has ever produced can only help his development.
Rooney could be at Argyle for a long period of time, or he could move on very quickly. I know which one I think is more likely, but right now it’s irrelevant. If he continues to use his pull to bring in players Argyle wouldn’t have had a chance of signing otherwise, he can at least have a long-term Home Park legacy whatever happens.
Nice piece, coherently written and highlighting both positives and negatives of the signing. Time for WR to prove himself a capable man manager, mentor and inspirational leader.
Sounds like just the sort of player we’ve been crying out for. Hardie running off him could be exciting. He sounds like a proper ‘robbers dog’ of a player. We’ve needed bite, in the team, for a while.